In late 2024, as relentless Israeli assaults reduced swathes of Lebanon to rubble and killed thousands, many wondered: would the Hezbollah-Israel conflict finally push long-suffering Lebanon into the abyss?
The answer might still be yes, even as a fragile ceasefire largely holds. Hezbollah insists it will not fully disarm, as the truce requires. That obstinance could spark trouble, with the group’s domestic and foreign opponents demanding that it surrender its weapons entirely, once and for all.
Yet, in recent weeks, another potential spoiler has re-emerged: financial and political elites, who threaten to keep obstructing much-needed economic reforms in defence of their own, vested interests. Already, critics accuse this hidden coalition of pushing for last week’s appointment of the new central bank governor, Karim Souaid, as the latest instalment in their long-running recalcitrance.
While key foreign donors have declared their willingness to support Lebanon’s recovery, significant aid remains contingent on tangible reform progress. Since late 2019, when Lebanon’s unprecedented economic crisis first emerged, the country’s elites have resisted that process with determination. Unfortunately, they appear set to maintain this damaging course.
During the crisis, a broad, informal coalition of these actors – which cuts across political party lines – has delayed and sabotaged the comprehensive reforms required for an International Monetary Fund rescue package.
In March 2020, former prime minister Hassan Diab’s government proposed a crisis response plan, which the IMF greeted positively. But the powerful Association of Banks in Lebanon objected to the sector bearing a significant share of the debt burden, after years of reaping handsome profits from the fiscal practices that generated it. With the help of aligned politicians (among them, ostensible backers of the Diab government), the bankers managed to stop the plan from going forward.
In April 2022, two years and billions in wasted foreign currency reserves later, Lebanon and the IMF reached a provisional agreement largely along the same lines. It stipulated several preconditions for Lebanon to meet before the IMF would consider a full request for stabilisation assistance. Another three years later, during which Lebanon made no real headway on these deliverables, the parties must now draw up a new agreement, as the previous one is outdated.
From October 2023 until November 2024, the disastrous Hezbollah-Israel conflict pushed economic reform out of the national spotlight. After the war, Lebanon’s parliament installed a new president and prime minister, Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam respectively. Both men, who hail from outside Lebanon’s traditional political class, pledged to push through reforms. But they are liable to run up against the stubborn resistance of powerful forces who consider that their individual interests are on the line.
Already, some of the previous disputes have resurfaced. In early March, a Lebanese parliamentarian proposed a draft law on returning depositors’ savings, which have been largely trapped inside Lebanese banks during the crisis. Critics allege that the bill reflects the banking sector's preference for the state to assume the lion’s share of the financial losses. If adopted, this approach may rely on selling off state assets and purporting to divert proceeds from Lebanon’s (unconfirmed) natural gas reserves.
A reform agenda threatens the rampant clientelism that has entrenched Lebanese elites’ power for decades
The battle has also played out in Lebanese media. Several outlets have accused Mr Salam of being under the influence of Kulluna Irada, a prominent Lebanese advocacy group. Kulluna Irada participated in the 2018 CEDRE donor conference and advocates for a banking restructuring strategy that imposes significant costs on bank shareholders. The group now faces a lawsuit, which reportedly accuses it of “using covert funding … to fuel a smear campaign against the banking system”.
Mr Salam’s government will hope that, backed by the crushing need for external assistance, it can overcome stubborn opposition and finally usher in the economic reforms. Both Mr Aoun and Mr Salam received resounding mandates from parliamentarians, and the new cabinet is largely technocratic rather than politically aligned.
Yet powerful interest groups retain sway over many MPs, who can block reform legislation. The nation’s bankers reportedly feel that they can also rely on key members of Mr Salam’s government to defend their corner. Mr Souaid, the new central bank chief and reportedly the banking sector’s preferred candidate, won 17 out of 24 cabinet votes. Mr Salam expressed “reservations” about Mr Souaid’s appointment and stressed the need to preserve Lebanese state assets in tackling the economic crisis.
The IMF reform agenda does not only raise alarm bells for bankers. Several proposed changes, such as lifting banking secrecy laws and introducing capital controls, would bring transparency to Lebanon’s frequently opaque economic order. Those changes would likely expose illicit schemes that many powerful players would prefer to remain shrouded in darkness. Interestingly, Mr Souaid’s candidacy received support from all 12 ministers selected by traditional political parties, ranging from Hezbollah to the group’s most ardent domestic foe, the Lebanese Forces.
A comprehensive reform agenda also threatens the rampant clientelism that has entrenched Lebanese elites’ power for decades. For example, implementing more transparent public procurement laws would undercut politicians’ ability to dole out state contracts to supporters. Potential donors may also demand that Lebanon make sweeping cuts to public sector jobs, another key source of electoral appeal. This change alone could lead disgruntled civil servants to withdraw votes in their thousands. Faced with these threats, many powerbrokers would prefer to avoid reform and cling to Lebanon’s broken economic model.
The bill for this short-sighted self-preservation will come down on the most vulnerable Lebanese. On top of the economic crisis, the war exacted a heavy toll on Lebanon: total damages will likely reach $11 billion, if not more. Key potential donors, chief among them Saudi Arabia, want to see progress on reforms before delivering large-scale financial assistance.
Hezbollah can still frustrate Lebanon’s economic recovery. If the group refuses to disarm, it could spook potential investors by creating ongoing instability in Lebanon and deter its foreign opponents from contributing financial support. During the economic crisis, Hezbollah has also faced allegations that it tacitly co-operated with Lebanon’s other traditional parties in obstructing serious reform action.
At least on the question of reforms, Hezbollah should have a compelling incentive to adopt a different course in the post-war era. Israel’s brutal military campaign mainly targeted areas home to a large population from Lebanon’s Shiite community, including Hezbollah fighters and their families. The party has overseen a faltering post-war reconstruction campaign and seeks to put the cash-strapped Lebanese state in charge of rebuilding.
The same concerns do not apply to many Lebanese elites. The majority shielded themselves against the country’s economic implosion. Their homes went untouched by the war. They may stonewall reforms yet again, even at the expense of their neediest compatriots. After all, they have done exactly that since the economic crisis started.
Although its future plans remain unclear, Hezbollah currently has a clear motive to support economic reform. Many of the country’s other powerbrokers do not.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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The five pillars of Islam
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Why does a queen bee feast only on royal jelly?
Some facts about bees:
The queen bee eats only royal jelly, an extraordinary food created by worker bees so she lives much longer
The life cycle of a worker bee is from 40-60 days
A queen bee lives for 3-5 years
This allows her to lay millions of eggs and allows the continuity of the bee colony
About 20,000 honey bees and one queen populate each hive
Honey is packed with vital vitamins, minerals, enzymes, water and anti-oxidants.
Apart from honey, five other products are royal jelly, the special food bees feed their queen
Pollen is their protein source, a super food that is nutritious, rich in amino acids
Beewax is used to construct the combs. Due to its anti-fungal, anti-bacterial elements, it is used in skin treatments
Propolis, a resin-like material produced by bees is used to make hives. It has natural antibiotic qualities so works to sterilize hive, protects from disease, keeps their home free from germs. Also used to treat sores, infection, warts
Bee venom is used by bees to protect themselves. Has anti-inflammatory properties, sometimes used to relieve conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, nerve and muscle pain
Honey, royal jelly, pollen have health enhancing qualities
The other three products are used for therapeutic purposes
Is beekeeping dangerous?
As long as you deal with bees gently, you will be safe, says Mohammed Al Najeh, who has worked with bees since he was a boy.
“The biggest mistake people make is they panic when they see a bee. They are small but smart creatures. If you move your hand quickly to hit the bees, this is an aggressive action and bees will defend themselves. They can sense the adrenalin in our body. But if we are calm, they are move away.”
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MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
The years Ramadan fell in May
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SHAITTAN
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ASSASSIN'S%20CREED%20MIRAGE
%3Cp%3E%0DDeveloper%3A%20Ubisoft%20Bordeaux%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20Series%20S%26amp%3BX%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LEAGUE CUP QUARTER-FINAL DRAW
Stoke City v Tottenham
Brentford v Newcastle United
Arsenal v Manchester City
Everton v Manchester United
All ties are to be played the week commencing December 21.
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MO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Amer%2C%20Ramy%20Youssef%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Amer%2C%20Teresa%20Ruiz%2C%20Omar%20Elba%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More coverage from the Future Forum
How to vote
Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.
They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi
Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday)
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PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
MATCH INFO
Northern Warriors 92-1 (10 ovs)
Russell 37 no, Billings 35 no
Team Abu Dhabi 93-4 (8.3 ovs)
Wright 48, Moeen 30, Green 2-22
Team Abu Dhabi win by six wickets
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