US President Donald Trump is flanked by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, left, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington. Reuters
US President Donald Trump is flanked by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, left, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington. Reuters
US President Donald Trump is flanked by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, left, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington. Reuters
US President Donald Trump is flanked by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, left, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington. Reuters


Why Donald Trump’s tariff plan stands to backfire


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  • Arabic

March 19, 2025

In his first term, US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats were mainly rhetorical. But he now appears to be launching a huge trade war – almost inexplicably beginning with friendly neighbours and trading partners Canada and Mexico, along with China. Businesses and governments around the world are reeling from on-again, off-again tariffs, threats and other trade barriers, raising the overriding question: what does he think he’s doing?

Defenders of the tariff onslaught, including the President, have offered a range of goals, usually ultimately postulating a revival of American manufacturing, resurgence of factory production, blue-collar or vocational jobs and less reliance on supply chains dominated by China. How this will actually happen remains largely unexplained. Mr Trump is already admitting that a tariff-driven recession may be imminent, the birth pains of a glorious renewed American “greatness”.

The President isn’t guided by theoretical frameworks. Even his most ardent supporters recognise that he is essentially just transactional and categorises others as his personal friends, adversaries or those somehow in between – the patrimonialism I recently described in these pages. It’s a sure-fire formula for fostering corruption and crony-capitalism.

But senior aides, notably Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and economic adviser Stephen Miran, have attempted to outline an ambitious plan to reshape the global economic power structure.

Their arguments – which Mr Trump may not understand (like about half of Americans, he incorrectly insists foreign countries, not primarily working-class US consumers, pay tariffs) or care about – are convoluted and, arguably, self-contradictory. They centre on two seemingly irreconcilable goals that define the proposed global restructuring.

Trumpians insist that most others have been “ripping off” Americans for decades through unfair practices. But US trade deficits are more plausibly explained, albeit without foreign villains, by chronic American savings-investment imbalances.

Since all forms of power are interrelated, they argue, economic interests should be protected by other forms of power such as military pre-eminence. All leverage should be used to compel, or even bully, other powers to accommodate a more hegemonic and mercantile Washington. Co-operate, or else …

It does not appear that either Trump or his subordinates have seriously considered the consequences of failure

There’s nothing innovative in Mr Trump’s goal of American pre-eminence or willingness to co-ordinate various forms of leverage. What’s radically new is this vision of a dramatically restructured, purely transactional, global trading system and abandonment of US democratic traditions as a perceived asset. Brute force solves everything.

The two seemingly contradictory goals underpinning this agenda involve the role of the dollar as the default global reserve currency. The argument correctly identifies the pre-eminence of the US dollar as the primary American economic competitive advantage juxtaposed, for example, to China’s dominance in manufacturing and international supply chains. But it simultaneously maintains that the dollar is unacceptably overvalued, harming the competitiveness of American exports.

The Trump administration proposes using all forms of potential coercion to compel other countries and multinationals to maintain the dollar as the global reserve currency while concurrently securing co-operation in devaluing it to strengthen the competitiveness of US exports, particularly manufactured goods.

Other countries must continue to buy dollars, which generally drives up its value, while simultaneously co-operating in devaluing the currency. This requires continued investment on their part but on considerably more disadvantageous terms, which would be secured by coercive threats such as withdrawal of military protection, aggressively hegemonic threats, if not actions (like Mr Trump’s territorial ambitions towards Greenland, Canada, the Panama Canal and even Gaza), and any other available US overbearing power.

This intensified hegemonic and newly mercantilist posture helps explain targeting Canada and Mexico as early aggressive tariff targets, along with China. This would have been heretofore unthinkable. Even Mr Bessent and Mr Miran suggested that their more aggressive, hegemonic and mercantilist Washington should begin by targeting adversaries.

Mr Trump’s way of doing business doesn’t, apparently, accommodate such caution. Instead, he has deliberately targeted friends and neighbours as much, if not more, than adversaries. He’s dramatically demonstrating that past co-operation and collaborative trade arrangements are suddenly meaningless. All may play, but all must pay.

This epistemological shift is bold, but risky and arguably reckless. Being almost entirely coercive, it repudiates and abandons the global system that the US painstakingly crafted after the Second World War centred on co-operation and long-term partnerships. There are few apparent carrots available now but countless sticks.

As other states and multinationals try to appear co-operative, they may begin quietly seeking refuge in alternatives. These policies thus may well hasten the downfall of the dollar’s global dominance rather than reinforce it.

Canadiano coffee at Can $4 CAN is offered among other products at Cafe Belem in Toronto last week. AFP
Canadiano coffee at Can $4 CAN is offered among other products at Cafe Belem in Toronto last week. AFP

Saudi Arabia may be hoping that the proposed $1 trillion in new US investments recently announced by Riyadh can secure a much-coveted new mutual defence treaty, rather than a presently non-feasible normalisation with Israel. But Riyadh may be seeking carrots that are simply not on the market.

Rather than extending new umbrellas of security as rewards for co-operating, the Trump administration appears much keener to withdraw them as punishment for not co-operating. European countries are appalled at the apparent shift of Washington’s sympathies from Ukraine to Russia. That’s unlikely to incentivise them to co-operate in simultaneously reinforcing and devaluing the dollar.

Mr Trump’s rhetoric and policies seem based on anachronistic views of manufacturing that simplistically ignore the complexity of global supply chains. What constitutes a “made in America“ automobile today is infinitely harder to define than it was, say, in the 1950s – Mr Trump’s ideal decade, he says.

And even if American manufacturing is indeed significantly revived, it may take decades before that’s evident. It’s at best a long-term venture that’s badly out of sync with the US political calendar.

Finally, it does not appear that either Mr Trump or his more cerebral subordinates have seriously considered the consequences of failure. Canada and Mexico are immediately responding with retaliatory tariffs that threaten to bring the project crashing down before it is truly under way.

If they are overestimating US coercive power or underestimating a stubborn refusal by others to simply submit despite painful consequences, they may succeed in demolishing the existing global trade and security order without establishing a functional alternative.

The new tariffs look chaotic because they are, intentionally, chaotic. If this continues and he and his colleagues have miscalculated Washington’s ability to bully friend and foe alike, Mr Trump’s legacy may be simply global economic and political chaos for the foreseeable future.

COMPANY PROFILE

Company: Bidzi

● Started: 2024

● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid

● Based: Dubai, UAE

● Industry: M&A

● Funding size: Bootstrapped

● No of employees: Nine

Haircare resolutions 2021

From Beirut and Amman to London and now Dubai, hairstylist George Massoud has seen the same mistakes made by customers all over the world. In the chair or at-home hair care, here are the resolutions he wishes his customers would make for the year ahead.

1. 'I will seek consultation from professionals'

You may know what you want, but are you sure it’s going to suit you? Haircare professionals can tell you what will work best with your skin tone, hair texture and lifestyle.

2. 'I will tell my hairdresser when I’m not happy'

Massoud says it’s better to offer constructive criticism to work on in the future. Your hairdresser will learn, and you may discover how to communicate exactly what you want more effectively the next time.

3. ‘I will treat my hair better out of the chair’

Damage control is a big part of most hairstylists’ work right now, but it can be avoided. Steer clear of over-colouring at home, try and pursue one hair brand at a time and never, ever use a straightener on still drying hair, pleads Massoud.

PRO BASH

Thursday’s fixtures

6pm: Hyderabad Nawabs v Pakhtoon Warriors

10pm: Lahore Sikandars v Pakhtoon Blasters

Teams

Chennai Knights, Lahore Sikandars, Pakhtoon Blasters, Abu Dhabi Stars, Abu Dhabi Dragons, Pakhtoon Warriors and Hyderabad Nawabs.

Squad rules

All teams consist of 15-player squads that include those contracted in the diamond (3), platinum (2) and gold (2) categories, plus eight free to sign team members.

Tournament rules

The matches are of 25 over-a-side with an 8-over power play in which only two fielders allowed outside the 30-yard circle. Teams play in a single round robin league followed by the semi-finals and final. The league toppers will feature in the semi-final eliminator.

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Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

Specs

Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric

Range: Up to 610km

Power: 905hp

Torque: 985Nm

Price: From Dh439,000

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The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S

Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900

Engine: 937cc

Transmission: Six-speed gearbox

Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm

Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km

The Bloomberg Billionaire Index in full

1 Jeff Bezos $140 billion
2 Bill Gates $98.3 billion
3 Bernard Arnault $83.1 billion
4 Warren Buffett $83 billion
5 Amancio Ortega $67.9 billion
6 Mark Zuckerberg $67.3 billion
7 Larry Page $56.8 billion
8 Larry Ellison $56.1 billion
9 Sergey Brin $55.2 billion
10 Carlos Slim $55.2 billion

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If you go

The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.

The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.

Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica

Best Agent: Jorge Mendes

Best Club : Liverpool   

 Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)  

 Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker

 Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo

 Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP

 Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart

Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)

Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)

Best Women's Player:  Lucy Bronze

Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi

 Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)

 Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)

 Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
LA LIGA FIXTURES

Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)

Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)

Friday

Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)

Valencia v Levante (midnight)

Saturday

Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)

Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)

Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)

Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)

Sunday

Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)

Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)

Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)

Six large-scale objects on show
  • Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
  • The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
  • A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
  • Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
  • A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
  • Torrijos Palace dome
Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi T10

*November 15 to November 24

*Venue: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi

*Tickets: Start at Dh10, from ttensports.com

*TV: Ten Sports

*Streaming: Jio Live

*2017 winners: Kerala Kings

*2018 winners: Northern Warriors

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed 

WOMAN AND CHILD

Director: Saeed Roustaee

Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi

Rating: 4/5

Updated: March 19, 2025, 2:20 PM`