Mark Carney needs to go from ‘boring’ central banker to ‘bold’ prime minister

Like many Scots I have relatives in Canada, and a real love for that beautiful country. About 5 million Canadians claim Scottish ancestry, 14 per cent of the population. About the same percentage (15 per cent) have Irish ancestry, including new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, while 18 per cent claim English ancestry along with 11 per cent French.

In his first speech since entering office last week, Mr Carney spoke glowingly of Canada as “the wonder of a country built on the bedrock of three peoples: indigenous, French and British”. What Mr Carney has been more circumspect in discussing publicly is the wonder of his country having to deal with the world’s longest border – nearly 9,000 kilometres – that separates it from an increasingly unpredictable, and at times deliberately offensive, neighbour to the south.

US President Donald Trump repeatedly and undiplomatically speaks of his ambition that Canada should become the 51st state of the US. Mr Carney has responded by noting that his country usually defeats the US in their shared passion for ice hockey, and when it comes to being swallowed up by Mr Trump’s ambitions, Canada will “never, ever in any way, shape or form be part of the United States”.

At the time of writing – and bearing in mind that Mr Trump can change policy directions as other people change shirts – Washington has placed 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium imports and on goods that do not comply with existing trade agreements. Mr Trump also coins nicknames for those he wishes publicly to diminish. He referred to the previous Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the great state of Canada”, as if he were already some subservient part of Mr Trump’s imperial ambitions.

The blowback has been profound.

Justin Trudeau calls Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada 'very dumb'

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Canadians now openly boycott American goods. Opinion polls show more than 90 per cent of them reject the idea of becoming American. And rather than follow the tradition of a new Canadian Prime Minister paying his first courtesy call on his friendly neighbour in Washington, Mr Carney has come to Europe instead, meeting French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London.

He has also had a private audience with King Charles whom he described as a “steadfast defender” of Canada. And “Steadfast Defender” – not coincidentally – was the name given to Nato’s enormous military exercise in 2024 to protect European security. Canada plays a significant part in Nato and King Charles, as head of the Commonwealth, expressed his “deepest affection” for the country. Most British people agree. When asked to name their "favourite country” in 2020, 80 per cent of Britons said Canada.

Mr Carney is highly respected in Britain. He was governor of the Bank of England from 2013-20, the first non-Briton to hold the post since the bank was created in the 17th century. Mr Carney helped steer the UK economy through a number of upheavals, including the Scottish independence vote (2014), the Brexit vote (2016) and the start of the coronavirus outbreak (2020).

When a central banker is described as “boring”, that word in the financial markets is meant as a compliment along with “trusted”. Now his job as Canada’s Prime Minister means Mr Carney has to be bold.

There is the prospect of an imminent general election along with relentless unpleasantness from the US President, although every Trump act of rudeness appears to increase Mr Carney’s prospects of winning over patriotic voters. He is already receiving blanket news coverage at home for his positive but largely confidential discussions with the two allied leaders who appear as close as possible to being “Trump Whisperers”.

Mr Macron and Mr Starmer have had some kind of success in meeting Mr Trump and gaining his positive attention in marked contrast to the shout-fest that greeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Mr Macron and Mr Starmer are also the key players in pulling together Europe’s “Coalition of the Willing” to re-arm Europe and defend against possible Russian expansion.

Even with King Charles as a “steadfast defender”, it will take real diplomatic skills to convince Mr Trump that repeatedly threatening to annex Canada, an unwilling neighbouring country in North America, leads to unflattering comparisons between the Trump administration and the Kremlin’s attempted annexation of neighbouring Ukraine.

You can judge the transatlantic warmth for Mr Carney by the fact that he spoke in fluent French in Paris and was told by Mr Macron that Canada is “the most European of the non-European countries” and a “unique friend”. Mr Carney responded that it was important to have “reliable allies”, another not-so-subtle dig at the “reliability” or otherwise of Mr Trump in Nato.

The final part of Mr Carney’s first prime ministerial trip is to the third group of people he says created modern Canada – the indigenous peoples. Tellingly, since Greenland is also in Mr Trump’s shopping list, Mr Carney was to end this trip in the Arctic, in Nunavut, home of Canada’s indigenous Inuit people.

Touching the hearts of the British, French and Inuit people suggests Mr Carney is assembling important allies to reject Mr Trump’s unwanted overtures. It also suggests that a Canadian general election may happen sooner not later.