The “kill switch” is dominating behind-the-scenes discussions in Europe, as the continent’s leaders line up hundreds of billions of euros to splurge on their collective defence in the years ahead.
The US’s decision to stop real-time intelligence-sharing with Ukraine this month amounted to an abrupt pulling back of the curtain. We don’t often see any of the workings of intelligence co-operation, much less its direct impact on the battlefield. But what Washington’s announcement – which has now been reversed – laid bare for other European nations was undoubtedly significant.
With great uncertainty caused by policy shifts in the White House since Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, Europe has finally absorbed the wake-up call that it’s only been talking about for a decade and a half. The resources that the continent’s leaders plan to allocate to its defence will be substantial, and many hope that these will be transformative to Europe as a military power.
However, there is an immediate crunch for the continent as it looks to spend some of this money on supporting Ukraine. Given the uncertain nature of its ties with the US, is there a guarantee that it won’t be put on a short leash by Washington when it buys American systems? French President Emmanuel Macron feels very strongly about this. In the manner of the post-Second World War general-turned-president Charles de Gaulle, Mr Macron is seized by the importance of Paris as a player in defence and strategic affairs.
Thinking through what Europe’s rising defence spending should look like is complicated by the US’s dominance in the technology domain
At the weekend, he used newspaper interviews to stress to his fellow European leaders that he would be campaigning for a “Europe first” procurement stance. “My intention is to go and convince European states that have become accustomed to buying American,” he warned, adding that each state should, instead, contemplate ordering European-made equipment. “Those who buy the F-35 should be offered the [French-made] Rafale.”
The F35 is a generation-leading fighter and bomber platform for warfare. When Germany responded to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by announcing a “Zeitenwende” revamp to bring its military back up to scratch, it allocated about 10 per cent of its outlay to US F-35 purchases. Berlin ordered 35 F-35s – since increased by 10 more jets – as well as weaponry for €10 billion (almost $11 billion).
But, again, can Europe trust the US? Go on Reddit and there is a social media frenzy around the eight million lines of code that built the software running the F-35. Speculation that American designers can disable the platform through this code rages back and forth.
Given that Mr Trump has called for Greenland to join the US, there is an obvious case to consider wherein this might happen. Denmark has stepped up to the plate in granting all its F16 fighters to Ukraine for its war against Russia. It has also embraced the F-35 programme. But with Copenhagen being the sovereign power in Greenland, the risk of its dispute with Washington spilling over into its air force capabilities cannot be eliminated. (For what it’s worth, Ottawa finds itself in a similar situation as Mr Trump continues to call for Canada to become America’s 51st state.)
Thinking through what Europe’s rising defence spending should look like is complicated by the US’s dominance in the technology domain, especially as the future of the battlefield will involve autonomous weapons, nano sensors and acoustics.
The events of the past few weeks have also highlighted Europe’s failure to provide adequate basic artillery shells needed on Ukraine’s frontlines. It is instructive that Czech President Petr Pavel had to organise a global buying spree to find the shells that Europe’s factories cannot produce. And if it is hard for the continent to produce the guns, ships and planes that are the well-established weaponry of war, then there are even tougher future questions needed to be asked.
When the finances have been assembled to buy the defence equipment, what should Europe spend it on? Where will it find its champions of tech to provide particular generations of attacking drones that can evade the enemy’s sensors as well as provide the great many of them needed to outgun the other side? Where will the capital come from to create and expand the companies that are delivering the defences of the new era? How can Europe innovate in real time?
Answering these questions won’t be easy.
There has been a stock market frenzy for Europe’s defence champions. One such beneficiary of the new investor interest was the British firm QinetiQ (pronounced kinetic). Unfortunately for the company, it lost one fifth of its value on Monday morning when its directors were forced to warn that it would not meet the profit expectations of the new investors. The trouble was that it had cost pressures for its raw materials – partly as a result of yet another White House policy shift regarding new tariffs – and it also needed to make provision for a restructuring process.
Getting these defence companies in shape to meet Europe’s challenges will not be easy. US hedge funds have bought up much of the UK defence sector over the past decade, and there are fears that some of it may have been hollowed out in the process. Meanwhile, still-independent firms such as QinetiQ need to convince investors that they can deliver on the promise of an increasing order flow.
It is for all these reasons that Mr Macron is on to something with his warnings on where exactly the new orders are being built up.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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More on animal trafficking
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Three trading apps to try
Sharad Nair recommends three investment apps for UAE residents:
- For beginners or people who want to start investing with limited capital, Mr Nair suggests eToro. “The low fees and low minimum balance requirements make the platform more accessible,” he says. “The user interface is straightforward to understand and operate, while its social element may help ease beginners into the idea of investing money by looking to a virtual community.”
- If you’re an experienced investor, and have $10,000 or more to invest, consider Saxo Bank. “Saxo Bank offers a more comprehensive trading platform with advanced features and insight for more experienced users. It offers a more personalised approach to opening and operating an account on their platform,” he says.
- Finally, StashAway could work for those who want a hands-off approach to their investing. “It removes one of the biggest challenges for novice traders: picking the securities in their portfolio,” Mr Nair says. “A goal-based approach or view towards investing can help motivate residents who may usually shy away from investment platforms.”
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
SPECS
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Two-step truce
The UN-brokered ceasefire deal for Hodeidah will be implemented in two stages, with the first to be completed before the New Year begins, according to the Arab Coalition supporting the Yemeni government.
By midnight on December 31, the Houthi rebels will have to withdraw from the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Al Saqef, coalition officials told The National.
The second stage will be the complete withdrawal of all pro-government forces and rebels from Hodeidah city, to be completed by midnight on January 7.
The process is to be overseen by a Redeployment Co-ordination Committee (RCC) comprising UN monitors and representatives of the government and the rebels.
The agreement also calls the deployment of UN-supervised neutral forces in the city and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to ensure distribution of aid across the country.
Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The five pillars of Islam
Frida%20
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Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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The biog
Siblings: five brothers and one sister
Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota
Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym
Favourite place: UAE
Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera
What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books
The five pillars of Islam
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
More on Quran memorisation:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch, Matt Renshaw, Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine (captain), Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Jon Holland, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Peter Siddle
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
