There has been much talk lately of reconstruction in Arab territories and countries destroyed in recent conflicts – above all Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. Yet the amounts involved are so potentially enormous, that we must seriously consider that reconstruction may not happen. Such an outcome will have myriad political repercussions.
The situation in Lebanon will be particularly interesting to watch, insofar as developments in the country reflect fault lines in the broader Middle East. This is especially true of the rivalry between many Arab states and Israel, on the one side, and Iran, on the other, so that reconstruction will be tied to regional power considerations.
In a recent article for Foreign Affairs, Maha Yahya, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, wrote that the “World Bank and UN organisations have estimated that rebuilding the Middle East and providing enough humanitarian aid will cost between $350 and $650 billion. The UN Development Programme has estimated that at least $40 to $50 billion is needed to rebuild Gaza alone”.
The obvious question is who will be willing to pay such astronomical amounts? In Lebanon, specifically, the World Bank has estimated the losses from the conflict with Israel at $11 billion in the short and medium terms. Many in the country still believe that the Gulf states will step up to cover at least a portion of those costs. However, this may be wishful thinking, for three reasons principally.
First, no money will be given until the Lebanese introduce economic and financial reforms. The days of blank cheques are long gone. Second, many of the Gulf states have domestic priorities, while, regionally, other entities – above all Syria and Gaza – are competing with Lebanon for assistance. And third, what impetus do such states have to help rebuild Lebanese areas controlled by their political foes? Very little.
Last week, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited Saudi Arabia, and it was noticeable that he came back with no Saudi financial commitments to assist Lebanon. Instead, the final communique affirmed the need for Lebanon to implement reforms, and the two sides agreed to examine the “obstacles” to a resumption of Lebanese exports to the kingdom and a return of Saudi travellers to Lebanon.
As long as Hezbollah-controlled areas remain in the devastated condition they are today, the group may see its popularity erode
The Saudi intention was not to humiliate Mr Aoun, whose election the kingdom backed and with whom it has, by all accounts, good relations. Rather, as one Saudi source described it, the visit served to “break the ice” with Lebanon, but also to show that “there was no rush to return to the country”. After more than a decade of tensions with the Gulf states, Lebanon will require more time to regain the trust of prospective funders.
Then there are the politics. Earlier this month, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signalled a hardening of Iran’s position on negotiations with the US, when he declared such talks “[would not be] intelligent, wise, or honourable”. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed this policy direction when he stated: “I personally believed it would be better to negotiate [with the US], but the supreme leader said we will not talk with the US. So I said we would not negotiate with the US.”
In light of this, one could expect Iran to try to resurrect its network of regional allies, above all Hezbollah, which was severely weakened in the recent war with Israel. Such a context makes it all the more difficult to expect that those who oppose Iran’s allies most in the region will rush to rebuild areas of Lebanon that are mainly loyal to Hezbollah, in such a way that this assistance may restore the group’s credibility.
On the contrary, for as long as Hezbollah-controlled areas remain in the devastated condition they are today, the group may see its popularity erode. Its secretary general, Naim Qassem, has anticipated this, recently declaring: “The state must lead reconstruction efforts [since] what Israel destroyed, it destroyed in the Lebanese state.” In other words, Hezbollah seems prepared to deflect anger in the Shiite community away from itself and on to the government if no funding arrives for reconstruction.
That cynical tactic might work to a limited extent, but nothing can change the fact that Hezbollah will find it all but impossible to resume a military strategy against Israel with communal endorsement if reconstruction money is not forthcoming. This may also lead to a domestic political backlash visible in parliamentary elections next year, and even in municipal elections, also next year. For Hezbollah and the allied Amal Movement, to lose their electoral stranglehold over the Shiite community would represent a major blow.
That is precisely why Hezbollah is so keen to secure reconstruction assistance before the elections. And that is also why the countries most likely to help Lebanon may see little reason to intervene. Hezbollah finds itself in a bad place. Until it reinvents itself as a civilian party, it will remain at the mercy of those it once so recklessly castigated.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
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The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What is Diwali?
The Hindu festival is at once a celebration of the autumn harvest and the triumph of good over evil, as outlined in the Ramayana.
According to the Sanskrit epic, penned by the sage Valmiki, Diwali marks the time that the exiled king Rama – a mortal with superhuman powers – returned home to the city of Ayodhya with his wife Sita and brother Lakshman, after vanquishing the 10-headed demon Ravana and conquering his kingdom of Lanka. The people of Ayodhya are believed to have lit thousands of earthen lamps to illuminate the city and to guide the royal family home.
In its current iteration, Diwali is celebrated with a puja to welcome the goodness of prosperity Lakshmi (an incarnation of Sita) into the home, which is decorated with diyas (oil lamps) or fairy lights and rangoli designs with coloured powder. Fireworks light up the sky in some parts of the word, and sweetmeats are made (or bought) by most households. It is customary to get new clothes stitched, and visit friends and family to exchange gifts and greetings.
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
