When I was a child, my parents lived on the outskirts of the Scottish capital, Edinburgh. My friends included Hans, the son of a US Air Force major based at Kirknewton air base. Hans had a German name because his father had been born in Austria, emigrated to the US and became an American citizen.
For me, this summed up Nato, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. We lived near a British base filled with Americans – one of whom had a German accent – working with the Royal Air Force to protect us all from the Soviet Union and communism. Times have changed.
Three years ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a stirring speech reflecting this sense of change. Mr Scholz explained that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a Zeitenwende, a “time shift” or turning point. He immediately increased defence spending with €100 billion ($104 billion) for the German military.
Now after the weekend election results, his probable successor as chancellor, Friedrich Merz, noted that the real Zeitenwende, from US President Donald Trump, affects all of Europe and beyond.
There has been some “walking back”, as they say in Washington, of Mr Trump’s assertion that Ukraine started the war with Russia. After all, that comment is as bizarre as suggesting America, not Japan, caused Pearl Harbour to be bombed in 1941. Mr Trump has somewhat moderated his rhetoric but in a fast-moving series of diplomatic (and somewhat un-diplomatic) statements the White House has left politicians, diplomats, military leaders and even historians struggling to come to terms with the enormity of the changes in Washington’s attitude towards the more than 75-year-old Nato alliance.
This is, indeed, a Zeitenwende, a turning point even more profound than Mr Scholz predicted.
Nato is arguably the biggest and most successful long-term international military relationship in world history, and it has been shaken to its core not by Russia but by America. Several politicians, distinguished military figures, academics and commentators in the UK and beyond appear to agree on at least on one clear outcome. Nato means “less America”, more Europe and therefore much less “North Atlantic” in future.
Some suggest there should now be a European Defence Force. European states broadly agree on three points. One, there remains a significant Russian threat to European security. Two, Washington is a far less reliable ally. And three, Europeans spending more on defence is the only option.
Yet, on the other hand, Russia has failed to defeat Ukraine after three years of fighting against a much smaller adversary. Russian combat losses – some estimates put them at 800,000 dead and wounded – are extraordinary. Russia’s economy is weak. A rouble is worth less than one American cent.
Governments in Scandinavia, Poland and the Baltic republics are already committed to modernising their defences. The three biggest European players – Britain, France and Germany – are co-ordinating responses and finding extra money. The French President and the British Prime Minister will this week separately meet Mr Trump, and those conversations will be very tricky. Nevertheless, there is a broad consensus that Europe has moved from 1945 and a “post-war” world to what unfortunately could be a “pre-war” world.
There is also a consensus that years of complacency about a “unipolar” world and a “Pax Americana” are long gone.
Last week, I spoke to a senior military figure, a British government adviser, about historical parallels to the state we are in. History is never an exact guide, but the past 30 years have been a complacent echo of the years that led to the First World War.
Americans felt separated from conflict by an ocean. The British spoke of “splendid isolation”. And yet the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip in June 1914 led to a series of dominoes falling into conflict as Austro-Hungary, Serbia, Russia, Germany, France, Britain and finally, in 1917, even the US was sucked into four years of horror. History never repeats itself. But humans unfortunately often repeat the same mistakes and delusional behaviour.
And so, the "time shift” may have shifted Mr Merz into the German Chancellery and a coalition is yet to be determined. The politics of Europe, especially in France, Germany and Spain, are in a state of flux. The same is also true of Washington, where – as I have suggested in these pages before – the confidence or otherwise of Wall Street may provide a key to the Trump presidency.
The German philosopher Friedrich Hegel wrote that the only thing humans learn from history is that we learn nothing from history. The US in 1917 learnt that it was not isolated from European conflict. In the 1930s, the US learnt that tariffs were bad for the world economy. In 1941, putting “America first” did not keep the US from being sucked into a European war. And Europeans have learnt that relying on others for Europe’s defence is a mistake.
In the words of US general George Marshall, we should remember that “the only way human beings can win a war is to prevent it”.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
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More on animal trafficking
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Three trading apps to try
Sharad Nair recommends three investment apps for UAE residents:
- For beginners or people who want to start investing with limited capital, Mr Nair suggests eToro. “The low fees and low minimum balance requirements make the platform more accessible,” he says. “The user interface is straightforward to understand and operate, while its social element may help ease beginners into the idea of investing money by looking to a virtual community.”
- If you’re an experienced investor, and have $10,000 or more to invest, consider Saxo Bank. “Saxo Bank offers a more comprehensive trading platform with advanced features and insight for more experienced users. It offers a more personalised approach to opening and operating an account on their platform,” he says.
- Finally, StashAway could work for those who want a hands-off approach to their investing. “It removes one of the biggest challenges for novice traders: picking the securities in their portfolio,” Mr Nair says. “A goal-based approach or view towards investing can help motivate residents who may usually shy away from investment platforms.”
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
SPECS
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Two-step truce
The UN-brokered ceasefire deal for Hodeidah will be implemented in two stages, with the first to be completed before the New Year begins, according to the Arab Coalition supporting the Yemeni government.
By midnight on December 31, the Houthi rebels will have to withdraw from the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Al Saqef, coalition officials told The National.
The second stage will be the complete withdrawal of all pro-government forces and rebels from Hodeidah city, to be completed by midnight on January 7.
The process is to be overseen by a Redeployment Co-ordination Committee (RCC) comprising UN monitors and representatives of the government and the rebels.
The agreement also calls the deployment of UN-supervised neutral forces in the city and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to ensure distribution of aid across the country.
Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The five pillars of Islam
Frida%20
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