Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. Reuters
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. Reuters
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. Reuters
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. Reuters


Few in post-war Lebanon had an impact like Rafic Hariri’s


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February 12, 2025

On Friday, Lebanon will commemorate the 20th anniversary of Rafic Hariri’s assassination. This provides an opportunity to examine the former prime minister’s legacy, but also reflect on the failings of the international investigation to uncover all his assassins.

When he came to power in 1992, Mr Hariri did so in large part through an understanding between Saudi Arabia and Syria. The Saudis had played a key role in negotiating the Taif Accord that served as the basis of the constitutional changes that redistributed power among the Lebanese sects and ended the civil war. Syria, in turn, was the de facto hegemonic power in Lebanon, after its army had ousted Michel Aoun and the military government he headed.

Mr Hariri’s task was to lead Lebanon’s economic recovery and physical reconstruction, given the confidence he enjoyed internationally, particularly among financial institutions. The Syrians maintained considerable sway over Lebanon’s political and security affairs, and imposed an exception to the disarmament of post-war militias: Hezbollah was allowed to retain its weapons and pursue its resistance against Israel’s occupation of south Lebanon.

Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri during a speech in front of 20,000 people in central Beirut to mark "Matyrs' Day", on May 6, 1998. Reuters
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri during a speech in front of 20,000 people in central Beirut to mark "Matyrs' Day", on May 6, 1998. Reuters

The Syrian aim in doing this was mainly to retain a pressure point against Israel at a time when Damascus was engaged in negotiations with the Israelis over the Golan Heights, following the Madrid conference of 1990. Syria’s president at the time, Hafez Al Assad, sought not only to regain the occupied Golan, but also retain control over Lebanon.

Mr Hariri would struggle with this situation for years, which created an anomalous duality of a state trying to regain its sovereignty and an independent armed group that undermined this sovereignty. He also faced another major problem in having to direct reconstruction in a country in which the wartime militia leaders, Syrian allies all, still retained much power.

This compelled Mr Hariri to help put in place a system in which party leaders or members were given ministries, which they often ran as personal fiefdoms, while the prime minister concentrated rehabilitation and reconstruction decisions in his hands. This did not mean that the ministries were marginalised. Projects that were run through these ministries allowed for considerable corruption and the plunder of national resources.

It’s not easy to summarise Mr Hariri. In many regards, his time in office brought out the best and worst in Lebanon

The man who would secure the financing for such activities was Riad Salameh, the central bank governor. Salameh, who is now in prison, began a process of issuing high-interest domestic debt to attract capital to the country, which helped fund reconstruction, and imposed a fixed (and costly) peg on the local currency to the US dollar. When this system reached a crisis stage in 1998, Lebanon began issuing foreign debt to avoid a default.

One can praise Mr Hariri for leading a very thorny reconstruction process that would have overwhelmed most other prime ministers. However, he also oversaw the precarious foundations of Lebanon’s financial system that collapsed in 2019. Perhaps he had no other choice if his aim was to rebuild Lebanon, but his assassination also removed the one individual who might have been able to introduce corrective measures to avert the worst.

By 2004, Mr Hariri was chafing that the Syrians had extended the mandate of then Lebanese president Emile Lahoud, whom they had imposed in 1998 to contain Mr Hariri, among other reasons. Mr Hariri played a behind-the-scenes role in pushing for UN Security Council Resolution 1559, calling for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and a disarmament of all militias. There were also signs he was about to form lists against Syria’s candidates in the elections of 2005, secure a parliamentary majority, and put himself in a position to ask Syria to pull out its forces.

This was the background to Mr Hariri’s assassination. It underlined both the man’s ability to manoeuvre among contradictions and the considerable influence he wielded domestically and internationally, which ultimately made him a target. The positive upshot, however, was that he left behind a country that was significantly rebuilt after 15 years of war. This was something he could point to, even if his plans did provoke criticism from some quarters.

The last thing we will remember about Mr Hariri is that his killing led to the first UN tribunal to deal with terrorist crimes. However, the UN investigation that preceded the tribunal did very little investigating after 2005, apparently fearing the political consequences, in the end bringing an indictment that allowed many of those involved to remain free. What was supposed to be a judicial process to end impunity for political crimes was nothing of the sort as political assassinations continued.

It’s not easy to summarise Mr Hariri. In many regards, his time in office brought out the best and worst in Lebanon, while his death divided the country even more, when it should have united it. But as we survey post-war Lebanon, few men have moved the country forward as he did, while his death brought about a long interregnum of stalemate, violence and devastation in national affairs. That alone explains why his absence is regretted.

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Tributes from the UAE's personal finance community

• Sebastien Aguilar, who heads SimplyFI.org, a non-profit community where people learn to invest Bogleheads’ style

“It is thanks to Jack Bogle’s work that this community exists and thanks to his work that many investors now get the full benefits of long term, buy and hold stock market investing.

Compared to the industry, investing using the common sense approach of a Boglehead saves a lot in costs and guarantees higher returns than the average actively managed fund over the long term. 

From a personal perspective, learning how to invest using Bogle’s approach was a turning point in my life. I quickly realised there was no point chasing returns and paying expensive advisers or platforms. Once money is taken care off, you can work on what truly matters, such as family, relationships or other projects. I owe Jack Bogle for that.”

• Sam Instone, director of financial advisory firm AES International

"Thought to have saved investors over a trillion dollars, Jack Bogle’s ideas truly changed the way the world invests. Shaped by his own personal experiences, his philosophy and basic rules for investors challenged the status quo of a self-interested global industry and eventually prevailed.  Loathed by many big companies and commission-driven salespeople, he has transformed the way well-informed investors and professional advisers make decisions."

• Demos Kyprianou, a board member of SimplyFI.org

"Jack Bogle for me was a rebel, a revolutionary who changed the industry and gave the little guy like me, a chance. He was also a mentor who inspired me to take the leap and take control of my own finances."

• Steve Cronin, founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com

"Obsessed with reducing fees, Jack Bogle structured Vanguard to be owned by its clients – that way the priority would be fee minimisation for clients rather than profit maximisation for the company.

His real gift to us has been the ability to invest in the stock market (buy and hold for the long term) rather than be forced to speculate (try to make profits in the shorter term) or even worse have others speculate on our behalf.

Bogle has given countless investors the ability to get on with their life while growing their wealth in the background as fast as possible. The Financial Independence movement would barely exist without this."

• Zach Holz, who blogs about financial independence at The Happiest Teacher

"Jack Bogle was one of the greatest forces for wealth democratisation the world has ever seen.  He allowed people a way to be free from the parasitical "financial advisers" whose only real concern are the fat fees they get from selling you over-complicated "products" that have caused millions of people all around the world real harm.”

• Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.org

"In an industry that’s synonymous with greed, Jack Bogle was a lone wolf, swimming against the tide. When others were incentivised to enrich themselves, he stood by the ‘fiduciary’ standard – something that is badly needed in the financial industry of the UAE."

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Updated: February 15, 2025, 11:09 AM