US President Donald Trump won’t achieve all the objectives underpinning his battles with various countries around the world. But while he is almost certain to make concessions on some issues over time, he is unlikely to fully back down in any of the cases.
Despite his repeated claims to detest war, he has threatened some countries with his “maximum pressure” strategy and even implicitly threatened military action. He aspires to be remembered as a peacemaker, yet he appears to be sowing the seeds of conflict.
One region in the US President’s crosshairs is the Middle East, where he boasts about being fair. Yet he speaks the language of forced displacement, seeking to turn the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza into a lucrative investment opportunity for developers.
Mr Trump appears convinced that he is offering solutions to Palestinians, particularly the residents of Gaza, but has no qualms about displacing them from their homeland. He also understands that he is endorsing Israel’s expansionist vision in the West Bank and Gaza.
Successive Israeli leaders have rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state, as they view Jordan as the “alternative homeland for Palestinians”. Israel has long implied that the so-called “demographic bomb” – the growing Palestinian population – necessitates emptying Gaza and the West Bank through a “transfer” plan, possibly extending to Palestinians within Israel itself.
The tragedy lies in the fact that Israel originally facilitated the rise of Hamas, using its existence as a pretext to carry out its draconian measures and expansionist strategies. Hamas initially saw itself as a competitor for power with the Palestine Liberation Organisation, but its attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 have since paved the way for Israel’s show of force as well as Mr Trump’s pointed rhetoric.
The US President has been audacious enough to demand that Egypt and Jordan open their borders to Palestinians from Gaza. He has also openly stated that he is exploring ways to incorporate the West Bank into Israel.
He has placed Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in a difficult position, implying that they comply with his demands because Washington provides aid to both their countries. In doing so, Mr Trump has shown little regard for the diplomatic and political implications of what is effectively economic and political extortion.
The real challenge will come when the two leaders meet Mr Trump at the White House. Regardless of any Arab solidarity they attempt to invoke, the US President won’t hesitate to make demands he considers reasonable, expecting compliance.
Saudi Arabia’s stance, as articulated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is therefore critical. Prince Mohammed’s opposition to Mr Trump’s vision and his insistence on a two-state solution carry significant weight. They could serve to influence the latter’s willingness to climb down from his maximalist position.
One hopes that Mr Trump, whether knowingly or obliviously, doesn’t attempt to entangle Saudi Arabia in his manoeuvres, believing that Riyadh will ultimately yield. He would do well to understand that forcing Arab leaders to bend to his will has its limits.
Nonetheless, this is a defining moment because Mr Trump doesn’t appear to be bluffing on his Gaza plan and isn’t likely to back down. He may moderate some of his extreme positions, but he won’t relinquish them entirely. If presented with a viable roadmap for coming down the ramp, he may adjust. However, if he feels cornered, he is more likely to double down on his hardline stance.
Arab leadership, especially the Palestinian leadership, must act swiftly and strategically to get ahead of this. While Arab financial contributions to Gaza’s reconstruction are a valuable leverage tool, they are insufficient on their own. Key Arab powers will need to supplement financial leverage with diplomatic and strategic actions.
At a minimum, regional leaders should insist that Mr Trump legally guarantee the return of Gaza’s displaced residents after reconstruction so that temporary displacement doesn’t become a permanent forced exodus. He must be compelled to ensure that Israel doesn’t annex Gaza and that these assurances are both credible and binding. Aid should be directed towards helping Gazans remain in Gaza, rather than being driven into voluntary exile.
Certainly, international political and diplomatic opposition to Mr Trump’s plans is crucial, but even that won’t be enough.
The standoff over Gaza comes at a time when Riyadh has accused the Israeli government of pursuing an “extremist, occupying mentality” amid a growing row over the latter’s claim that Saudi Arabia could house millions of Palestinians on its land. In a strongly worded statement on Sunday, the Saudi Foreign Ministry accused Israel of “continuous crimes” and “ethnic cleansing” of the Palestinian people.
From the US President’s perspective, Israel needs Washington to achieve its objectives. His thinking, therefore, is centred on a dual US-Israeli security framework that dictates the new Middle East order. Iran will be at the heart of the storm due to Mr Trump’s demands regarding its nuclear weapons programme and regional influence. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been largely neutralised, Tehran’s influence in Gaza has been curtailed, its presence in Iraq contained, and strategies are being devised to sever its reach in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia is a top priority for Mr Trump, as he sees it as both an economic and security partner and envisions it as the backbone of his “Deal of the Century” proposition with Israel. Reports suggest that Mr Trump’s first foreign visit will be to Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, Iran also remains a key focus for Mr Trump due to the latter’s nuclear agenda, placing the region at a delicate crossroads. This is especially true if Tehran takes retaliatory or precautionary measures against Israel in an attempt to disrupt US-Israeli plans. Oil plays a crucial role in these considerations, particularly the volatility of global markets and its impact on prices. Nevertheless, Mr Trump intends to expand and enforce sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
The US President’s overall approach, both in the region and beyond, relies on setting high demands in typical “Trumpian” fashion, using a combination of incentives and threats – the classic carrot-and-stick method. However, what remains crucial is how he navigates the climbdown from the high expectations he sets – as he has just done in the Middle East.
Mr Trump is a master of creating confusion and shock, then stepping back to observe the response, assessing whether he faces major obstacles or just minor setbacks. He then adjusts and refines his approach, but he never fully retreats. Knowing this is key to dealing with him effectively.
