Trump’s tariff war hurt the US-China relationship, but his pragmatism could help revive it

Days into the new US administration, much of the world is awaiting – or fearing – just how aggressive President Donald Trump’s trade policies may be. Stocks in China fell on Wednesday after Mr Trump said he was intending to impose a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese imports from the beginning of February, although there was also a degree of relief that this was nothing like the 60 per cent figure that he had aired during his election campaign.

How Mr Trump plans to approach the US’s relationship with Beijing is one of the key questions – and not just for those two countries, as the spillover effects on everything from international trade and supply chains to peace and security in the Asia Pacific and beyond would leave few countries untouched.

So far there have been mixed signals. On his first day in office, Mr Trump signed an executive order that allowed TikTok – seen as a Chinese company and as a national security threat by many in the US – to go back online. The app’s future in the US is still uncertain, as Mr Trump is insisting it be 50 per cent American-owned. But he spoke approvingly of the company on Tuesday, saying he thought it had won him young people’s votes in the election. “I have a warm spot in my heart for TikTok,” he said.

Mr Trump also had what he called a “good” phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping last Friday. “It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately,” he wrote in a social media post. “President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the world more peaceful and safe.”

The ideological differences that so concern Biden are less troubling to Trump, who prizes his ability to negotiate and forge firm bonds with strong leaders far more

In his inauguration speech, Mr Trump may have falsely accused China of operating the Panama Canal – “we didn't give it to China, we gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back”. But he also stated: “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end. And, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.” That does not sound like a man who is itching to get into a conflict over the future of Taiwan, the island where some American politicians have foolishly encouraged aspirations to independence, but which China regards as a renegade province whose reunification with the mainland is inevitable.

That’s on the positive side. On the other hand, his administration is going to be packed with China hawks, from Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who was actually sanctioned twice by Beijing over his vocal criticisms in 2020), to Mr Trump’s picks for defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, and national security adviser, Mike Waltz.

On Tuesday, his first full day in office, Mr Rubio convened a meeting of the foreign ministers of the Quadrilateral security dialogue states – the US, Japan, Australia and India. Chinese accusations that the “Quad”, as it is known, is an “Asian Nato” formed to prevent its rise will not be quelled by Mr Rubio calling China “the most potent, dangerous and near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted” in his Senate confirmation hearing last week.

And lastly, no one can doubt how deeply attached Mr Trump is to the idea that tariffs can be easily deployed against any countries that have been “very, very bad to us”, as he put it on Tuesday. He was talking about the EU, but he has used far more incendiary language about China in the past.

However, Mr Xi reciprocated Mr Trump’s warm words about their phone conversation last week, calling for “a new starting point”, a sentiment reiterated by Chinese officials in the past days. And Mr Trump has reportedly said that he wants to meet the Chinese President in Beijing within his first 100 days in office. The indications are that both sides would like to strike a deal.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi in Washington on Tuesday. Reuters

The ideological differences that so concern Mr Biden and hawks on both sides of the aisle in the US are less troubling to Mr Trump, who prizes his ability to negotiate and forge firm bonds with strong leaders far more. As one commentator put it: “Somewhere out there, the spirit of Richard Milhous Nixon is smiling.” Just as “only Nixon could go to China” during the Cold War, wouldn’t Mr Trump like to be the one world leader who could stop a new one heating up?

Quite apart from all it could (presumably) do to “Make America Great Again”, it could also help him gain the accolade he thinks he was wrongly denied for forging the Abraham Accords – the Nobel Peace Prize. And while Mr Trump may be surrounded by officials who urge extreme caution, the Tesla-owning “first buddy” Elon Musk sells one third of his cars in the Chinese market. So at least one person close to Mr Trump has reason to back up his faith in his own ability to reach a fabulous bargain with Mr Xi.

Some of the sticking points, however, may be of Mr Trump’s own making. It was he who initiated the trade war with China during his first term in the White House. Plenty of anti-Chinese legislation – not just tariffs – followed. The decoupling of the two economies has already begun, and it may take on a life of its own. And while the Republican Party may have been remade in Mr Trump’s image, both houses of Congress – even while controlled by the GOP – will be very sceptical of any deal, however the President spins it.

Most of us who live in South-East and East Asia will probably be hoping that the friendly words between the Chinese and US leaders, combined with Mr Trump’s non-ideological and transactional disposition, will provide us reasons for optimism. The alternatives don’t really bear thinking about.

I wouldn’t necessarily go so far as Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, but he may have spoken for many in the region on Tuesday. When asked what would happen if there was a full decoupling between the two superpowers, he responded, “If such a scenario was to arise, frankly, God help us all,” he said. “Then we are truly at the brink of a third world war.”

RESULTS

5pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m

Winner Thabet Al Reef, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)

5.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m

Winner Blue Diamond, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi

6pm Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m

Winner Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi

6.30pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m

Winner Shoja’A Muscat, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

7pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m

Winner Heros De Lagarde, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

7.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m

Winner Good Tidings, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi

Panipat

Director Ashutosh Gowariker

Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment

Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman

Rating 3 /5 stars

While you're here

Con Coughlin: Nato must renew its sense of common purpose

Sholto Byrnes: In today's times, what is Nato really good for?

C Uday Bhaskar: Could the 'Quad' become Asia's new Nato?

The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ

Price, base: Dh1,731,672

Engine: 6.5-litre V12

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm

Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm

Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km

Essentials

The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.

BLACKBERRY

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The biog

Name: Capt Shadia Khasif

Position: Head of the Criminal Registration Department at Hatta police

Family: Five sons and three daughters

The first female investigator in Hatta.

Role Model: Father

She believes that there is a solution to every problem

COMPANY%20PROFILE

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Floward%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulaziz%20Al%20Loughani%20and%20Mohamed%20Al%20Arifi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EE-commerce%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbout%20%24200%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAljazira%20Capital%2C%20Rainwater%20Partners%2C%20STV%20and%20Impact46%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C200%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

A State of Passion

Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi

Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah

Rating: 4/5

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

Killing of Qassem Suleimani

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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble

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Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground

Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Kumulus Water

Started: 2021

Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid

Based: Tunisia

Sector: Water technology

Number of staff: 22

Investment raised: $4 million

Results

2.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m

Winner Lamia, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.

3pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m

Winner Jap Al Afreet, Elione Chaves, Irfan Ellahi.

3.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m

Winner MH Tawag, Bernardo Pinheiro, Elise Jeanne.

4pm Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 2,000m

Winner Skygazer, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.

4.30pm The Ruler of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh250,000 1,700m

Winner AF Kal Noor, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.

5pm Sharjah Marathon (PA) Dh70,000 2,700m

Winner RB Grynade, Bernardo Pinheiro, Eric Lemartinel.

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Teaching in coronavirus times

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Some of Darwish's last words

"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.