Lebanon can escape Iran's orbit and return to the Arab fold

Lebanon is going through a historic transformation – one marked by a shift in its domestic and regional status quo. The election of former army general Joseph Aoun as President and the appointment of jurist Nawaf Salam as prime minister-designate usher in some long-awaited positive change to the country’s domestic balance of power and in its international relations.

The rise of these two figures signals the beginning of a new era in which Lebanon is free from the shackles of Iranian and Syrian interference. During the time of the Assad dynasty in Syria, under both Hafez and Bashar Al Assad, Damascus either dictated who would be in power in Lebanon or eliminated those Lebanese leaders it considered a political threat. For the first time since the end of the Lebanese Civil War, Beirut now has a president and prime minister who were not approved by Damascus or Tehran.

The process surrounding Mr Salam’s appointment – featuring tactical withdrawals and pragmatic alignments among previous political opponents – revealed Lebanese politicians finally working together in the national interest rather than following foreign-power choreography. During a meeting in Damascus just before Mr Salam’s appointment, Syria’s current leader, Ahmad Al Shara, told Lebanon’s departing caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati that he hoped Mr Mikati would remain in his position – underlining the major shift in power dynamics between the two countries.

Lebanese politicians’ ability to manoeuvre is in no small part the result of the Assad regime’s collapse; this has confirmed the loss of Hezbollah's role as kingmaker in Lebanese politics. Mr Aoun was first nominated as a presidential candidate about the time that former president Michel Aoun’s term was ending. For more than two years, Hezbollah persistently blocked the presidential election while trying to impose its own candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, who was backed by his friend Mr Al Assad. Post-Assad, Hezbollah had no choice but to accept Mr Aoun’s presidency, and its de facto objection to the premiership of Mr Salam ran into a similar dead end.

Despite its military and political losses, Hezbollah has not yet fully come to terms with the new reality in which it exists. The movement is trying to use its political hegemony within Lebanon’s Shiite community as a trump card. The dismissive reaction of Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad following Mr Aoun’s parliamentary consultations about appointing a prime minister and the Hezbollah bloc’s decision not to name anyone in the process were attempts to save face.

However, Mr Aoun is not undermining the Shiite community; he designated Mr Salam as prime minister after the former International Court of Justice president was backed by a parliamentary majority in accordance with the constitution. Hezbollah’s sense of entitlement also ignores the fact that not every member of Lebanon’s Shiite community supports the group, and that Lebanon’s MPs are elected by constituents from across the country’s political and religious spectrum. Therefore, the MPs who chose Mr Salam can credibly say that they represent all of Lebanon’s communities, not just their own. If Hezbollah continues to live in the past, this will only further weaken it politically.

Mr Salam has also opened the door for all Lebanon’s political actors to help the country recover from its multiple crises. In his first speech as prime minister-designate, he stressed the necessity of inclusion in Lebanon’s Cabinet. The Cabinet will be composed of ministers from all of Lebanon’s major communities, based on merit. A technocratic Cabinet is exactly what Lebanon needs, because ministers with credible expertise must urgently address its immense and interlinked economic and governance woes.

But adopting the principle of inclusion makes it impossible for the new Cabinet to uphold the power of veto that Hezbollah and its allies enjoyed in Lebanon’s consecutive governments since the Doha Agreement of 2008. Being treated as a political party like everyone else will be another difficult pill for Hezbollah to swallow.

Although Mr Salam acknowledged that change should be gradual, his speech slammed the 35-year lapse in the full implementation of the Taif Agreement, identifying this as a key objective for his government. Another important milestone will be the ministerial statement of the new Cabinet regarding national defence. Hezbollah, as part of the defence triad of “the army, the resistance and the people” has enjoyed the privileges without the responsibility. This problematic defence formula is set to end under Mr Salam, further eroding Hezbollah’s special status.

Of course, Hezbollah still has Iran as its main foreign backer. However, both Hezbollah and Iran have been dealt significant military blows in their confrontations with Israel since October 2023. These military setbacks have translated into irreparable political losses. With Iranian acquiescence, Hezbollah has reluctantly agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Israel that paves the way for the disarmament of all groups other than Lebanese Armed Forces.

Mr Aoun’s inauguration address took that point further by emphasising his commitment to such disarmament not just as a measure linked to the ceasefire agreement but as a pillar of Lebanese security. This was echoed in Mr Salam’s speech, in which he said that the full implementation of the Taif Agreement means the restoration of state authority over all of Lebanon, underlining the importance of adhering to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. However, these changes must be handled sensitively by Lebanon and its allies, particularly regarding Hezbollah and its attempts at continuing to monopolise Shiite political representation.

The extraordinary changes taking place in Lebanon pave the way for the country to escape Iran’s orbit and return to the Arab fold. For Mr Aoun’s and Mr Salam’s pledges to succeed, Lebanon needs its Arab allies to provide political and material support. Previously, Iran’s influence was an obstacle to Lebanon’s relations with its Arab friends, especially in the Arabian Gulf. With Iran’s role now curbed, the space is open for Lebanon to align itself more closely with the Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia’s visibility during Lebanon’s presidential election and the UAE’s reopening of its embassy in Beirut are positive steps to build on. The opportunity now presenting itself in Lebanon to achieve sustainable peace and prosperity is greater than ever.