With its new Prime Minister, Lebanon’s revolution comes full circle

Lebanon has just gone through a revolution – one that started more than five years ago with street protests demanding an end to corrupt political rule. It took all that time and a whole myriad of developments to get to a point where a president and prime minister have been elected outside the grip of the usual political parties that have dominated the country for decades.

In having former head of the Lebanese Armed Forces Joseph Aoun and former head of the International Court of Justice Nawaf Salam elected by Parliament this week, Lebanon has entered a new era. No longer is Hezbollah able to use its “veto” by having a third of parliamentary votes hold up all government activity.

The end of the constitutional paralysis of the country, with no president in power for more than two years and four months, is coupled with the return of political life to the country. It is a historic moment – Lebanon may be the closest it has been in at least 20 years to freeing itself from the chokehold of warlords of the previous civil war, Hezbollah and its regional backer Iran.

There is no denying that the devastating wars in Gaza and Lebanon since the Hamas attack of October 2023 led to major changes in the Arab world and particularly in Palestine, Syria and Lebanon. Some of these changes are terrible, like the displacement of close to 90 per cent of Gaza’s population due to Israel’s continued war. Others are transformative, like the end of Bashar Al Assad’s rule in Damascus.

All came to a head in Lebanon last year, with Israel assassinating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other senior members of the paramilitary group, while also displacing over a million Lebanese from the south of the country. In addition to the loss of life, there was an intolerable strain on Lebanon after five years of a chaotic downward spiral in the country. From the collapse of the country’s banking system, to the Beirut port explosion that was one of the largest recorded in human history, to a political stalemate that meant the country was led by a fragile caretaker government – all of this was set against the backdrop of a hobbled state, with political parties taking advantage of that weakness to build their strength and influence.

No entity benefited more than Hezbollah from the weakness of the Lebanese state, and it is only with a weakened Hezbollah that the state is able to re-emerge. For the first time in years, Hezbollah was no longer the determining voice in deciding who was Prime Minister. Mohamed Raad, the head of its parliamentary bloc, made his anger clear after the decision to name Mr Salam as Prime Minister, saying Hezbollah extended a hand in allowing quorum in Parliament last Thursday, which led to voting in the President, “but that hand was cut”.

Mr Salam’s appointment was not a foregone conclusion. Hezbollah had banked on caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati being sworn in and maintaining existing power-sharing agreements. That order has been upended.

Equally, neither is Mr Salam’s success a foregone conclusion. Spoilers will be waiting for him to slip up, or will work at limiting his ability to implement change. Those with vested interests threatened by these changes are, of course, going to try their best to limit them. Some of the challenges are economic and political, but fundamentally the threat is linked to security and the threat of violence. With at least 13 per cent unemployment, a proliferation of arms in the country and undercurrents of sectarian tensions, the threats are real.

In his first public remarks after returning to Beirut from The Hague, Mr Salam promised on Tuesday a “just, strong, modern civic state” to emerge. Such a state would run contrary to the interests of those who object to a “civic” state and want to see sectarian interests dominate it. Equally, those who object to “justice” being served will have a lot to lose.

February will mark 20 years since the devastating assassination of Rafic Hariri. Justice for that crime was not served directly, and in a sweet irony, it was Mr Salam who established the special tribunal for Lebanon to bring those behind Mr Hariri’s killing to justice. Impunity has been one of the hallmarks of Lebanese politics in the past two decades; ending it will not be easy but it is necessary to ensure that change is institutional and not just dependent on a few personalities.

Mr Salam has promised that “the time is now for a new chapter, based in justice security, progress, opportunities and equality”, with a commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and a full Israeli withdrawal from the country. It is a tall order but at a revolutionary time within the country and with clear international support, Lebanon may just be able to deliver it.

And it is the street protests of five years ago, which led to independent parliamentary candidates winning more seats in 2022 than ever before that ultimately allowed the election of a new president and prime minister to happen. While a long time coming, Lebanon’s revolution seems to have borne fruit.