A man waves a flag as he participates in the National Rally for Peace organised by a religious group in support of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, who is facing impeachment complaints, in Manila, on January 13. AP
A man waves a flag as he participates in the National Rally for Peace organised by a religious group in support of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, who is facing impeachment complaints, in Manila, on January 13. AP
A man waves a flag as he participates in the National Rally for Peace organised by a religious group in support of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, who is facing impeachment complaints, in Manila, on January 13. AP
A man waves a flag as he participates in the National Rally for Peace organised by a religious group in support of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, who is facing impeachment complaints, in Mani


Where is the Philippines headed amid the Marcos-Duterte feud, an election and the coming of Trump?


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January 15, 2025

A feud festering between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and the Duterte family – namely Vice President Sara Duterte and her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte – is no ordinary power struggle. In many ways, it is also the manifestation of a brewing new “Cold War” between China and the US. Time and again, the Dutertes have been Beijing’s most influential allies in the Philippines as well as leading critics of Manila’s expanding defence ties with Washington under Mr Marcos Jr.

Unsurprisingly, the current administration’s first major decision this year was to publicise its removal of Ms Duterte from the country’s National Security Council. And the coming months will probably witness an even more intense showdown, as the Philippines heads to a general election and prepares to deal with a second Donald Trump administration in the US, which is widely expected to take a hawkish stance on China.

Throughout the Philippines’ colourful history, and its long list of celebrity politicians and vivacious presidents, there has been nothing quite like the Dutertes. Throughout his six years in office, the swashbuckling and often foul-mouthed Mr Duterte upended the South-East Asian nation on a number of levels, most notably in foreign policy.

US President Joe Biden, right, with Ferdinand Marcos Jr, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, on May 1, 2023. The Biden administration embraced Marcos Jr as a key ally. AP
US President Joe Biden, right, with Ferdinand Marcos Jr, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, on May 1, 2023. The Biden administration embraced Marcos Jr as a key ally. AP

As president, he simultaneously sought to avoid a regional war and radically re-orient his country’s relations with the global superpowers. Although he fell short of severing the country’s century-old military alliance with Washington, Mr Duterte downgraded bilateral naval exercises, suspended the US-Philippine Visiting Forces Agreement and refused to visit any western capital while in office.

Meanwhile, he welcomed large-scale infrastructure investments and loans from Beijing and became the first Filipino president to seek military partnerships with both China and Russia. He once said Russian President Vladimir Putin was his “favourite hero” and described the leadership in Beijing as his ultimate “protector” against what he called nefarious western interference.

Interestingly, the first major sign of rupture in the Duterte-Marcos alliance was Mr Duterte’s open criticism of his successor’s foreign polic

His geopolitical gamble, however, had mixed results. China fell short of delivering on its large-scale investment promises, while the US managed to retain its military presence on Philippine soil.

Yet for his supporters, Mr Duterte resembled Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: a leader effectively positioning his country as a “pivot state” with robust ties to both western and eastern powers. At the very least, Mr Duterte, who enjoyed good relations with both Mr Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, proved that the Philippines has significant room for strategic manoeuvre.

For his critics, though, he was more of a “Manchurian Candidate”, namely Beijing’s ally in a nation historically aligned to Washington.

Eager to solicit Mr Duterte’s support for his presidential bid, Mr Marcos Jr initially positioned himself as his natural successor, including on foreign policy issues. He praised Mr Duterte’s pragmatism, questioned the utility of the Philippines’ alliance with the US and downplayed maritime disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea.

Video footage made available by the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) shows a Chinese Coast Guard vessel (L) colliding with Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua (R) in disputed waters of the South China Sea in August 2024. EPA
Video footage made available by the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) shows a Chinese Coast Guard vessel (L) colliding with Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua (R) in disputed waters of the South China Sea in August 2024. EPA

But shortly after winning office, he began to sing to a different tune by taking an uncompromising stance on maritime disputes with Beijing and welcoming revitalised strategic ties with the West. Partly, Mr Marcos Jr was responding to latent public distrust towards China as well as the Philippine defence establishment’s largely pro-western orientation.

The decisive factor was Beijing’s inability to honour its large-scale infrastructure investment pledges, coupled with Chinese maritime forces’ continued intimidation of Philippine Navy vessels and fishermen in contested waters. In response, Mr Marcos Jr persisted with his country’s defence co-operation with not only the US, but also Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and New Zealand.

The first major sign of rupture in the Duterte-Marcos alliance was Mr Duterte’s open criticism of his successor’s foreign policy and his own unprecedented decision to meet top Chinese leaders in Beijing without co-ordinating with Manila.

Meanwhile, Ms Duterte refused to publicly back Mr Marcos Jr’s foreign policy position even though she had served in his cabinet until mid-2024 and, crucially, was a member of key agencies such as the National Security Council and the elaborately titled National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict. So just as the administration of US President Joe Biden fully embraced Mr Marcos Jr as a key ally, Chinese leaders continued to cultivate their ties with the Dutertes.

With both political families enjoying superpower backing, they have felt confident enough to engage in direct conflict with one another.

The Dutertes have shown the audacity to publicly threaten the President (Ms Duterte spoke about “killing him” in a profanity-laced news conference last year); call for the separation of their home island of Mindanao from the rest of the country; and, together with their allies, agitate for protests and even a military coup to topple the government. For his part, Mr Marcos Jr has steadily purged his rivals from all key decision-making bodies, with Ms Duterte now facing the threat of impeachment and criminal charges for her comments against him.

The coming weeks and months will probably get bumpier. Ahead of a legislative election in May, both sides have escalated attacks on each other. The Dutertes have called the governing coalition “corrupt American stooges”, while the Marcos camp has alleged that its rivals are “serving as China’s fifth column”.

The second Trump administration will probably further intensify this feud. Even though Mr Trump’s own strategic calculus is largely indecipherable, his national security team is filled with China hawks, particularly Marco Rubio, the incoming secretary of state, and Elbridge Colby, the presumptive undersecretary for policy at the Department of Defence.

Mr Rubio has made it clear that the Philippines is central to the US’s “ability to maintain great power status”, and Mr Colby has called for more direct Philippines-US military co-operation against China.

Accordingly, top Trump officials will probably nudge frontline allies such as the Philippines to take a more uncompromising stance in the South China Sea and get more involved in helping the US to deter any moves on the nearby self-governing island of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. Washington is also likely to encourage Manila to roll back Chinese investments and crack down on pro-China elements in the Philippines in the name of countering malign foreign interference.

In response, the Dutertes are almost certain to step up efforts at undermining the expanding security co-operation with the US. Expect them to organise rallies with likeminded civil society groups, launch disinformation campaigns and continue to exhort the Philippine armed forces.

The upshot will be an even more intense and geopolitically consequential showdown between the two most powerful dynasties in the Philippines, with major ramifications for the future of great-power rivalry in Asia.

Some of Darwish's last words

"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.

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1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established

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1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed

1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.  

1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex

2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea

2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd

2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens

2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies

2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export

2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.

2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery 

2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital

2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13

Source: The National

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10 tips for entry-level job seekers
  • Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
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  • Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
  • Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
  • Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
  • Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
  • Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.

Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz

While you're here
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Updated: January 15, 2025, 3:52 PM`