I was pessimistic about 2025 until I read about 1816 – and now I live in hope

The first tumultuous forces of the year have already been felt in the West, as extreme winter weather affects transport and travel, and wildfires consume homes and businesses in Los Angeles at an alarming rate.

At the tail end of last year, there was a wave of terrorism in the US and Europe. The wider backdrop includes record deaths from conflict including in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine and elsewhere. The number of displaced people has exceeded 122 million, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

Health systems are currently creaking under the strain of a surge in flu cases, and the geopolitical reality is rapidly evolving.

Canada’s political landscape has been rocked by Justin Trudeau’s resignation, bringing to an end a decade as a prominent Prime Minister. The world is also preparing for US president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, with policies that he says he will put in place likely to have wide-reaching implications for the dollar, bond markets, global trade and commodity prices. This is not to mention the potential fallout from his stated desire to expand American territory to the north and south.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are locked in a very public feud. Chinese-made electric cars are flooding the industry even as we witness a stall in demand. Generally speaking, global trade winds are not blowing with as much force as we need, and economic growth is weaker than we want.

Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has aggressively shifted his stance on in-house fact-checking and content moderation on Facebook and Instagram. That adds to the increased dissemination of content produced using artificial intelligence-powered tools and programs.

Virtual reality seems set to make a comeback, even as crypto and other assets show how far we have come in terms of embracing technology. The lines of our digital experiences are blurring just as quickly as our physical ones.

Where does this leave us in the early days of 2025? All in all, without much in the way of positive vibes.

It feels as though many leading global figures are giving up the idea of a unified fight for a more equitable and prosperous future, and surrendering to what they see as inevitable forces of division and disunity.

In which case, how bad could the year end up being? Would it be comparable to 2020 when the world was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic? What about the years when world wars resulted in horrific losses? Would we be justified in taking such a pessimistic stance? How would the prospect of doom influence our decision-making?

It is true that the signs are ominous, even if it might not become the very worst of calendar years. I have never felt more pessimistic about our prospects for prosperity and well-being. But as often happens when my worldview takes a bitter turn, I delve into history for perspective. Thankfully, I can always find an illuminating benchmark and I take comfort that 2025 will, in all likelihood, not be as bad as 1816.

It was known as the “Year Without a Summer” in the northern hemisphere after a volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 1815 triggered the largest explosion of the past 10,000 years. A volume of gasses, dust and rock the equivalent of one million Royal Albert Halls was sent into the atmosphere. This led to famine, drought and poverty in many parts of the world. The weather was bleak and gloomy for nearly three years.

Yet the freeze was also a time of peak creativity. Mary Shelley was inspired to write her classic novel Frankenstein. The camera, the bicycle and the stethoscope were all invented during that time.

Whether my anxiety is truly backed up by fundamentals or not, there is always a more pressing risk that negative sentiment is enough to reshape our reality because perception is truth these days.

There is a responsibility to not be drawn by the allure of darkness, and it must be acknowledged how tempting it can be to see the world in such stark terms. Psychologically, it feels empowering to succumb to a bad news vibe. It can seem like an emotional hedge against suffering. Yet it also puts humans on a limited path because we aren’t seeing the whole picture, missing out on opportunity and personal growth.

One truth is that we are all, each of us and collectively, so much more resilient in 2025 than we were five or 10 years ago. It has been building up in the bank through the trials and tribulations we have been subjected to. So now is the time to spend it all.

Let us splurge in the face of mounting worries and not be turned or discouraged from doing the important work that needs to be done today, to deliver on the promise of a better future. We might find that this course ends up making 2025 one of our best.

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