As we step into the new year, I’ve noticed a stunning number of unexpected shifts, bits of news and looming developments, pointing towards a wildly unpredictable 2025.
Let’s start with the latest topsy-turvy in science and society. Climate scientists say the Arctic, the world’s famously frozen wasteland, is set to become ice-free in the near future. If the Arctic is no longer Arctic, won’t English-speakers everywhere need to find a new word to describe freezing cold weather?
After the world witnessed a backlash against over-tourism in 2024, travellers are expected to avoid many top vacation hotspots such as Venice, Santorini, Bali and beyond, instead visiting relatively unknown places like conflict-hit Kashmir. Could the next travel trend be destinations endeavouring to appear less appealing?
According to a report in The New York Times, the US government body charged with protecting its environment has for decades been knowingly promoting a fertiliser that leaves dangerous “forever chemicals” in the soil and water table. And food production researchers recently found that the back-to-nature style, organic and regenerative farming favoured by progressives is probably worse for humanity and the Earth than the industrial agriculture that’s been widely reviled for decades.
“Their artisanal grains and grass-fed beef are worse for nature than chemical-drenched corn and feedlot-fattened beef,” the author of a forthcoming book, We Are Eating the Earth, argued recently in The New York Times, “because they require much more land for each calorie they produce.”
Next up, politics, starting with the world’s most powerful office. Overcoming a younger, upstart candidate, accusations of seeking to foment a coup four years ago, and being the first former president with a felony conviction, Donald Trump cruised to an easy victory in November, stunning many prognosticators and leaving countless liberal-minded Americans seriously considering a move abroad. Will the next president shake the foundations of US democracy, or merely annoy a lot of American elites?
Now to the Middle East. I can’t recall any conflict that seemed as over as Syria’s civil war did six weeks ago, with President Bashar Al Assad, having put down an armed rebellion some time back, beginning to re-enter the regional diplomatic fold.
But, out of the blue, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham surged from Aleppo to Damascus to take power in a flash. Suddenly the Assad regime was no more, and Syria – for decades one of the region’s dark spots – is a place of hope, despite a terrorist-labelled leadership. One starts to wonder, is the best way to win a war to not fight it? For a while, at least, maybe.
Within hours of Mr Al Assad’s exit, Syrian exiles everywhere started talking about returning home, and many western governments, facing voter dissatisfaction over recently arrived immigrants, quickly halted asylum processing. Already, Turkey and Jordan have opened the border to returning Syrians and Austria is developing a massive repatriation plan. Anti-immigrant governments like that of Mr Trump might not be far behind. Are we about to witness the largest reverse migration in human history?
Speaking of Muslims in the West, December’s Christmas market attacker in Germany was a Saudi who was right-wing and anti-Islam, upending terrorist stereotypes. The attack “creates uncertainty at a time when certainties are already crumbling,” said a Der Spiegel columnist.
Next up, Israel, which has come full circle in terms of international opinion in the past 15 months. Start with October 7, when Hamas’s brutal assault led much of the world to sympathise with the Israeli people. Yet, much as the US did after the 9/11 attacks, Israel’s government stomped all over that global goodwill with the way its military bludgeoned, blasted and bulldozed Gaza in the months that followed. Now Syria’s successful revolution seems to be bringing things full circle.
With Mr Al Assad gone, Iran weakened, and Hamas and Hezbollah on their last legs, some are praising Israel’s military performance, and Reuters has described it as a “a succession of monumental wins for [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu”. On the verge of becoming an international pariah after accusations of genocide and war crimes, Israel could now emerge as the pioneer of a new style of innovative, 21st-century warfare.
Last, but certainly not least, we have Turkey. You may remember Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s criticism of foreign involvement in other countries’ political processes. In 2015, he denounced a top US news outlet for meddling in Turkey’s affairs after it ran a critical article. “Know your place,” Mr Erdogan urged.
Three years later, the Turkish leader accused the US and Israel of interfering in the affairs of Pakistan and Iran. The year after that, when western countries criticised Turkey’s revocation of an election result, Mr Erdogan accused the US and Europe of meddling in Turkish politics. The list goes on, underscoring the Turkish leader’s strong stance on foreign political involvement.
Yet Mr Erdogan recently made clear that Turkey will not only be involved in the formation of Syria’s new government, it will play a crucial role – helping define its state structure and draft a new constitution. There are no two ways about it: Turkey is embarking on a nation-building mission in Syria, where it’s seen as the ultimate power with influence over its new leaders.
Turkey’s long-time leader has always wanted his country to be respected as a global power, and now he has before him what is often viewed as the ultimate challenge for the world’s most powerful states: nation building. No wonder we’ve seen recent reports that Mr Erdogan could seek yet another term; he surely hopes to see this through.
Here’s to hoping that 2025, and Syria, turn out better than many fear. Have yourself a Happy New Year.
