Following the death of Manmohan Singh at the age of 92 on Thursday, one can’t help but wonder whether India will ever have another technocratic prime minister like him. Given the populist turn the country and large parts of the world have taken in recent years, this appears unlikely for the foreseeable future.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led government in New Delhi and the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, of which Dr Singh was a long-time member and leader, appear to have embraced overlapping versions of economic populism that will probably have worried the late prime minister even in retirement.
The federal government, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has undoubtedly maintained fiscal discipline over the past decade. It has instituted some meaningful reforms, like institutionalising a nationwide Goods and Services Tax. But it has baulked at other big-ticket items by walking back much-needed land reforms and later repealing three potentially far-reaching farm laws.
In a surprise move, the government ruled out joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free-trade agreement that, among others, includes China and the 10 countries that make up the Association of South-East Asian Nations. It was a clear indication that New Delhi was going in the protectionist direction.
But what is more troubling is the enthusiasm shared by almost every Indian political party, particularly in individual states, to deliver a range of direct benefits to the citizens, from farm-loan waivers to cooking gas to free bus travel for women. Some of this welfarism is targeted and even necessary, given that about 129 million Indians continue to live in extreme poverty, but there are genuine concerns that many state governments are spending beyond their means simply to stay in power.
This isn’t unique to India. Many other countries, too, have poured resources into large welfare programmes since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. But a period of austerity that followed the 2007-2008 global financial crisis appears to have been replaced by an era of exploding public debt, expected to exceed $100 trillion at the end of the current year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Dr Singh would no doubt have been expected to loosen the government purse strings in times of emergency. In fact, he sought government interventions, as long as they were paid for. As prime minister, from 2004 to 2014, he even put in place the makings of a modern welfare state, enacting schemes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and the Right to Education Act.
As the political scientist Ashutosh Varshney wrote in The Indian Express recently: "Manmohan Singh’s welfarism viewed the underprivileged as rights-bearing citizens, not simply as recipients of largesse."
And yet he was cut from a different philosophical cloth, given his focus on market reforms and fierce conviction that people needed to be given economic freedom. The Economist’s description of Dr Singh as “India’s economic freedom fighter” can hardly be disputed.
In 1991, Dr Singh memorably quoted Victor Hugo, telling his fellow MPs that “no power on Earth can stop an idea whose time has come”. This “idea” was that it was time for India to shed its socialist past and embrace a capitalist future by moving in the direction of liberalisation, globalisation and privatisation.
Over the next five years as finance minister, he worked with the country’s seemingly ossified bureaucracy to ensure that the government could embark on some of the large-scale economic reforms that he envisioned. These included the abolition of most trade licences, inviting foreign investment in the stock market and reconfiguring the banking sector.
Singh’s struggle to deliver prosperity for all is the classic conundrum that today’s moderate politicians around the world also have to contend with
The fruits of his government’s efforts, and those of subsequent administrations, transformed India from a country that faced an acute balance of payments crisis in the late 1980s to becoming the world’s fifth-largest economy. These reforms pulled the country out of its four per cent growth rate to achieve closer to 10 per cent economic expansion on a consistent basis over the following years.
The momentum generated by this “idea” of creating economic freedom proved unstoppable, even decades later; the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative states that more than 270 million people were lifted out of poverty between 2005-06 and 2015-16, a 10-year period during most of which Dr Singh served as prime minister.
However, no historical figure is perfect and Dr Singh has had his critics.
Many on the left have pointed to India’s continuing poverty and a rise in income inequality that his policies engendered over three decades. Many on the economic right have claimed he didn’t do enough, such as pushing through agricultural reforms that today’s government has burnt its fingers in trying to implement.
Dr Singh’s struggle to please all, and more importantly to deliver prosperity for all, is the classic conundrum that today’s moderate, technocratic politicians around the world also have to contend with. As parties become more ideologically extreme, and the spirit of consensus is depleted in a fast-changing world, it could be a while before a post-Cold War historical figure like Dr Singh emerges again, let alone thrives.
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