The world in 2024 is an ocean of tragedy and deliberate inhumanity. Wars start almost casually, and why not? Many leaders who make such decisions face a vanishing chance that they will be held to account. Suffering, the handmaiden of conflict and climate change, is everywhere around us. It reaches higher with each new horror, unchecked by the international norms and principles that enjoin us to preserve life and promote peace. Our consciences this year have been stretched to breaking point and the signs for next year are not encouraging.
At the same time, and with the privilege I have had this year to go to countries in crisis and observe their various contours, I have witnessed everywhere the sublime and undefeated humanity of “ordinary” people, a humanity that crosses cultures and continents. They are a reminder that there is hope for a return to sanity and that it can be found in the hearts and generosity of those overwhelmed by war.
Take Sudan, for example, where the civilians running the emergency rooms have never left the war to seek safety. Instead, with extraordinary courage, they deliver aid impartially and immediately to their neighbourhoods every day. It is common that local people – those who wake up to the unexpected arrival of thousands of displaced – are the first responders before the welcome intervention of the humanitarian agencies.
This treasure is beyond price. But it is true, and not an over-optimistic hope. We must urgently find ways to enlist this humanity in all our efforts to change this beautiful and ugly world of ours. But before coming to that, let us discuss the consequences of a world now focused on war, and where humanity and dialogue take second place. There are three aspects that we all need to understand.
The first is that wars do not end, the exception – we hope – being the shaky truce in Lebanon. This is due to the fact that betting on war has never been as easy as now. Wars come upon us suddenly and unpredictably. The price of going to war, and destroying whole peoples as a result, has never been so cheap. Second, dialogue as the instrument to resolve differences and the central element in mediation, has been – if not universally – often ignored and avoided.
Third, expenditure on wars has reached extraordinary heights. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, military spending amounted to $2.4 trillion last year. A direct consequence of this has been a massive underfunding of humanitarian programmes.
According to the UN’s 2023 Global Humanitarian Overview, out of a total global humanitarian bill of more than $56.9 billion, total humanitarian funding was just $24.9 billion – about 43.5 per cent of what’s needed. The suffering of the people and the criminal cruelties of war combine in an unholy partnership that defames us all.
Let me try to apply these ideas to our current crises.
Sudan is a crisis crying out for effective mediation. This involves defining the possible endstates for the two parties. Crucially, such mediation must also be based on extensive consultations with the country’s civilians – not just its generals. This may take time but there is no avoiding this as a condition precedent for meaningful talks. Sudan needs a vision, and this goes beyond the humanitarian. I know this is under way, but it needs more prominence. The Emirates has a central role in this, as do a number of influential states.
Gaza and the Palestinian future come next. As in Sudan, why would either of the parties choose the deals about hostages and the end of the war if the future governance of Palestine is not clearly promised? Arrangements that listen to Israel’s concerns are important but by a long distance insufficient. We need an international commitment to the future of a Palestine if we want this terrible war to stop. Again, the Emirates has a primary role in this endeavour, in addition to other Arab states.
Finally, the current topic de jour: Syria. What has happened there is, whether we like it or not, a product of the failure of dialogue and the competitive but yet to be seen success of battle. We know that allowing the early and unconditional re-entry of president Bashar Al Assad into the Arab League was a mistake that contributed to recent events. As Mr Al Assad said to me after his Arab League welcome: “There is no political pressure on me now.” I know that Emirati leaders had been in the forefront of seeking a reset for Syria but time ran out. Now the challenge is how to support Syrian aspirations to regain their country and its rights without returning to a regime of imposition from abroad.
What links these three crises is the recognition that thinking ahead has been absent from recent global diplomacy. We have seen a failure in effective mediation and a significant failure in the use of leverage. We must all hope these lessons will be learnt and applied.
Finally, I would like to comment on the state of my community, the humanitarian community. Despite historically low levels of funding, and the casual insults heaped upon them, the community has never been so united. I say this on the basis of five decades in humanitarian work. We are united because we are bound by our defence of humanitarian principles and our special responsibilities in a world so divided and awash with human suffering. I salute the courage and extraordinary resilience of our colleagues on the front lines. Confronted daily by danger and anguish, they remain engaged and thus also illustrate the power of humanity.
And lastly there is the small matter of hope. People around the world, and particularly those in grievous circumstances, have not lost faith in their humanity. International values remain intact in those communities. How can we bring this to our rescue? Let me suggest the obvious but still largely untaken road: a systematic and respectful engagement with the emerging powers of the Global South. Not just the governments but also their civil society where energy is undimmed. This is not easy but it’s evidently necessary. And to re-use that old phrase, let the new world come to the rescue of the old, to become the leaders of this world of ours.
