The seismic events in Syria over the past few days can be described as a black swan event, a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to denote an occurrence that is highly improbable yet has a huge impact.
The overthrow of the Baathist government is poised to have significant repercussions, not only within the country but also across the broader region. Whether these consequences will be positive or negative will depend on the choices made by Syria’s interim and long-term leadership.
More than a decade ago, I wrote an article highlighting a significant shift in the Arab world’s centres of gravity in culture, economy and diplomacy. This shift saw the traditional capitals of Cairo, Baghdad, Beirut and Damascus ceding prominence to emerging hubs such as Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Dubai, Doha and Sharjah. The triumph of the Syrian uprising holds the potential to rebalance the haemorrhaging of influence from these once-great cities. It could finally provide an opportunity for one of the Arab world’s traditional leading capitals, battered by decades of corruption, mismanagement and brain drain, to begin reclaiming the mantle it once proudly held.
However, for that to occur, Syria will need a confluence of critical factors to align.
The first and most essential is the establishment of a competent, just, secular and progressive government, consisting of technocrats – one that prioritises the rule of law, inclusivity and equitable governance. Such a government must work to rebuild trust among its citizens, address the deep scars left by years of conflict, and foster a sense of unity and shared purpose. This new government should also engage with friendly states in the Arab world, as well as Turkey, to draw upon their expertise in economic and tourism development. Collaborative partnerships in these fields could provide valuable insights and support, enabling Syria to rebuild its infrastructure, attract investment and create sustainable growth opportunities.
It is essential that the Syrian authorities learn from the best practices implemented across the region including in the Gulf countries. The successes achieved in the UAE demonstrate that similar progress is entirely possible in Syria. The country possesses all the necessary components for stellar success: a strategic geographic location, abundant natural resources, a youthful and ambitious population, a globally spread and successful diaspora, and a wealth of archaeological and historical sites. By using these assets and adopting proven strategies, Syria has the potential to rebuild and thrive, positioning itself as a significant player in the region once again.
Syria must avoid a destructive purge akin to the de-Baathification process led by Paul Bremer during the US-led occupation of Iraq, which effectively hollowed out the Iraqi administration by removing experienced bureaucrats and technocrats. Such actions left Iraq’s institutions weakened and ill-equipped to function, contributing to prolonged instability.
Instead, Syria should prioritise reconciliation and the preservation of institutional knowledge while carefully balancing accountability with the need for administrative continuity and expertise. In attempting to heal some of its scars, Syria could also learn from the experience of Morocco’s Equity and Reconciliation Commission.
Syria has long held a prominent cultural role in the Arab world and its impact on the region can hardly be exaggerated and perhaps is second only to Egypt. It is, after all, where in 1919 the Arabic Language Academy was founded and where significant figures of the Arab Renaissance originated from. It is home to some of the most prominent Arab artists, poets, novelists and cultural leaders who affected not only our language but also our identities as Arabs from North Africa to the Gulf.
However, decades of conflict, underinvestment and governmental overreach have led to a decline in the quality of Syria’s artistic output, including fine art, film, television and theatre. This deterioration mirrors challenges faced across the Arab world due to excessive state interference in cultural production.
As the Egyptian author Ahmed Naji suggests: “Just imagine the cultural and artistic impact that Syria could have if it started producing free drama and cinema.” The current moment offers a critical opportunity for Syrians to relaunch the cultural sector in the country and affirm its position as a trailblazer in the region for free and effective cultural production.
Finally, Syria must harness the skills and resources of all its sons and daughters in the diaspora. This includes not only the refugees and exiles who fled during the past decade and a half of conflict but also those who left decades earlier due to the rise of authoritarian rule. Among them are Syrians who have built successful lives in the West, including the Syrian Jewish community in New York, renowned for their expertise in real estate development and investment. Their contributions could play a vital role in rebuilding the country, provided they are granted equal rights and opportunities to participate in Syria’s future.
The reality is that while it is highly improbable for all these elements to align perfectly, it is not impossible. A crucial factor will be the presence of an often-elusive final ingredient: luck. Will Syria take advantage of this black swan moment, rise to the occasion and soar, or will it falter under the weight of its challenges?
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
FIGHT CARD
From 5.30pm in the following order:
Featherweight
Marcelo Pontes (BRA) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) v Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Welterweight
Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR) v Gimbat Ismailov (RUS)
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) v Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (BEL) v Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
Catchweight 100kg
Mohamed Ali (EGY) v Marc Vleiger (NED)
Featherweight
James Bishop (AUS) v Mark Valerio (PHI)
Welterweight
Gerson Carvalho (BRA) v Abdelghani Saber (EGY)
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) v Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Bantamweight:
Fabio Mello (BRA) v Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magemedsultanov (RUS)
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) v Jayson Margallo (PHI)
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Roman Golovinov (UKR)
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
The five pillars of Islam
The years Ramadan fell in May
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Tips for used car buyers
- Choose cars with GCC specifications
- Get a service history for cars less than five years old
- Don’t go cheap on the inspection
- Check for oil leaks
- Do a Google search on the standard problems for your car model
- Do your due diligence. Get a transfer of ownership done at an official RTA centre
- Check the vehicle’s condition. You don’t want to buy a car that’s a good deal but ends up costing you Dh10,000 in repairs every month
- Validate warranty and service contracts with the relevant agency and and make sure they are valid when ownership is transferred
- If you are planning to sell the car soon, buy one with a good resale value. The two most popular cars in the UAE are black or white in colour and other colours are harder to sell
Tarek Kabrit, chief executive of Seez, and Imad Hammad, chief executive and co-founder of CarSwitch.com
PROFILE BOX
Company name: Overwrite.ai
Founder: Ayman Alashkar
Started: Established in 2020
Based: Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai
Sector: PropTech
Initial investment: Self-funded by founder
Funding stage: Seed funding, in talks with angel investors
Sunday's games
Liverpool v West Ham United, 4.30pm (UAE)
Southampton v Burnley, 4.30pm
Arsenal v Manchester City, 7pm
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ogram%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Kouatly%20and%20Shafiq%20Khartabil%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20On-demand%20staffing%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2050%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMore%20than%20%244%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20round%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGlobal%20Ventures%2C%20Aditum%20and%20Oraseya%20Capital%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
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Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
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The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry
Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
