The seismic events in Syria over the past few days can be described as a black swan event, a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to denote an occurrence that is highly improbable yet has a huge impact.
The overthrow of the Baathist government is poised to have significant repercussions, not only within the country but also across the broader region. Whether these consequences will be positive or negative will depend on the choices made by Syria’s interim and long-term leadership.
More than a decade ago, I wrote an article highlighting a significant shift in the Arab world’s centres of gravity in culture, economy and diplomacy. This shift saw the traditional capitals of Cairo, Baghdad, Beirut and Damascus ceding prominence to emerging hubs such as Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Dubai, Doha and Sharjah. The triumph of the Syrian uprising holds the potential to rebalance the haemorrhaging of influence from these once-great cities. It could finally provide an opportunity for one of the Arab world’s traditional leading capitals, battered by decades of corruption, mismanagement and brain drain, to begin reclaiming the mantle it once proudly held.
However, for that to occur, Syria will need a confluence of critical factors to align.
The first and most essential is the establishment of a competent, just, secular and progressive government, consisting of technocrats – one that prioritises the rule of law, inclusivity and equitable governance. Such a government must work to rebuild trust among its citizens, address the deep scars left by years of conflict, and foster a sense of unity and shared purpose. This new government should also engage with friendly states in the Arab world, as well as Turkey, to draw upon their expertise in economic and tourism development. Collaborative partnerships in these fields could provide valuable insights and support, enabling Syria to rebuild its infrastructure, attract investment and create sustainable growth opportunities.
It is essential that the Syrian authorities learn from the best practices implemented across the region including in the Gulf countries. The successes achieved in the UAE demonstrate that similar progress is entirely possible in Syria. The country possesses all the necessary components for stellar success: a strategic geographic location, abundant natural resources, a youthful and ambitious population, a globally spread and successful diaspora, and a wealth of archaeological and historical sites. By using these assets and adopting proven strategies, Syria has the potential to rebuild and thrive, positioning itself as a significant player in the region once again.
Syria must avoid a destructive purge akin to the de-Baathification process led by Paul Bremer during the US-led occupation of Iraq, which effectively hollowed out the Iraqi administration by removing experienced bureaucrats and technocrats. Such actions left Iraq’s institutions weakened and ill-equipped to function, contributing to prolonged instability.
Instead, Syria should prioritise reconciliation and the preservation of institutional knowledge while carefully balancing accountability with the need for administrative continuity and expertise. In attempting to heal some of its scars, Syria could also learn from the experience of Morocco’s Equity and Reconciliation Commission.
Syria has long held a prominent cultural role in the Arab world and its impact on the region can hardly be exaggerated and perhaps is second only to Egypt. It is, after all, where in 1919 the Arabic Language Academy was founded and where significant figures of the Arab Renaissance originated from. It is home to some of the most prominent Arab artists, poets, novelists and cultural leaders who affected not only our language but also our identities as Arabs from North Africa to the Gulf.
However, decades of conflict, underinvestment and governmental overreach have led to a decline in the quality of Syria’s artistic output, including fine art, film, television and theatre. This deterioration mirrors challenges faced across the Arab world due to excessive state interference in cultural production.
As the Egyptian author Ahmed Naji suggests: “Just imagine the cultural and artistic impact that Syria could have if it started producing free drama and cinema.” The current moment offers a critical opportunity for Syrians to relaunch the cultural sector in the country and affirm its position as a trailblazer in the region for free and effective cultural production.
Finally, Syria must harness the skills and resources of all its sons and daughters in the diaspora. This includes not only the refugees and exiles who fled during the past decade and a half of conflict but also those who left decades earlier due to the rise of authoritarian rule. Among them are Syrians who have built successful lives in the West, including the Syrian Jewish community in New York, renowned for their expertise in real estate development and investment. Their contributions could play a vital role in rebuilding the country, provided they are granted equal rights and opportunities to participate in Syria’s future.
The reality is that while it is highly improbable for all these elements to align perfectly, it is not impossible. A crucial factor will be the presence of an often-elusive final ingredient: luck. Will Syria take advantage of this black swan moment, rise to the occasion and soar, or will it falter under the weight of its challenges?
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Family: Parents and four sisters
Education: Bachelor’s degree in business management and marketing at American University of Sharjah
A self-confessed foodie, she enjoys trying out new cuisines, her current favourite is the poke superfood bowls
Likes reading: autobiographies and fiction
Favourite holiday destination: Italy
Posts information about challenges, events, runs in other emirates on the group's Instagram account @Anagowrunning
Has created a database of Emirati and GCC sportspeople on Instagram @abeermk, highlight: Athletes
Apart from training, also talks to women about nutrition, healthy lifestyle, diabetes, cholesterol, blood pressure
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Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
TUESDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 2pm:
Elina Svitolina (UKR) [3] v Jennifer Brady (USA)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) v Belinda Bencic (SUI [4]
Not before 7pm:
Sofia Kenin (USA) [5] v Elena Rybakina (KAZ)
Maria Sakkari (GRE) v Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) [7]
Court One
Starting at midday:
Karolina Muchova (CZE) v Katerina Siniakova (CZE)
Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) v Aliaksandra Sasnovich (BLR)
Veronika Kudermetova (RUS) v Dayana Yastermska (UKR)
Petra Martic (CRO) [8] v Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE)
Sorana Cirstea (ROU) v Anett Kontaveit (EST)
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
