US president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration next month is widely expected to herald the return of the “maximum pressure” policy that his administration enforced on Iran during his first term.
The implications for Yemen can, therefore, also be expected to be wide-reaching. Indeed, after rebel groups toppled the Tehran-aligned government of Bashar Al Assad in Syria, the winds of change could blow there, too.
There is puzzlement over how little dynamics have changed in Yemen since the attacks mounted by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Israel led to retaliatory air strikes by the US and UK this year. Therefore, all eyes are on how Washington will focus on the country as part of a revamp in its approach to the Middle East.
Syria was such a vital plank for Iran’s regional policy of expanding its influence all the way to the Mediterranean that Tehran will be braced for the full blaze of Mr Trump’s headlights. That leaves the Houthi position in Yemen looking more and more like an intolerable outlier in the regional situation as it dramatically shifts.
In the decade since the collapse of the internationally recognised government in Sanaa, the Houthis have consolidated their footprint to rule the north of the country and about three quarters of the population. A de facto ceasefire has held between the Houthi lines and that of the government, which through its allies runs Aden and other parts of the south, including the port of Al Mukalla. Internal conflict in Yemen, in fact, dropped by about half last year.
But that tells only half the story. Not only has the Houthi leadership orchestrated attacks on Israel in solidarity with Palestinians living in Gaza, but it has posed a threat to the global economy by mounting a number of attacks on global shipping and disrupting trade through the Red Sea.
For example, as a result of the threat posed from Houthi missiles and drones on this lane, Egypt’s revenues from the Suez Canal are thought to have reduced by about $300 million a month this year. The attacks haven’t ceased, with two US warships coming under attack during their transit through the Bab Al Mandeb last month.
The US and its allies have restored a global terror designation on Ansar Allah, the Houthi movement’s official name, but that has had little real-world impact. The group’s propaganda operations and digital networks have received little or no disruption.
In other words, the efforts at containment are not working and are leading some Yemenis to argue that a much more comprehensive approach is needed to put the country on a better path.
The instability in the Red Sea has hurt food and fuel supplies to Aden more than it has the UN-supervised route to Yemen’s Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hodeidah. When Israel bombed the port in July, on a Saturday, it was receiving its first big shipment by Tuesday. The corridor for supplying the north from Djibouti has remained operational while shortages, not least caused by the operational and insurance costs of importing grain from Ukraine, ravage the south.
Calls for a more integrated approach that doesn’t just rely on air strikes and designations are being made to the Trump team. The internationally recognised government, for example, is being forced to make up its fuel deficit by buying from Houthi refineries with hard currency.
Officials in Aden are aghast that the UN agencies make subsistence payments to Houthi banks in US dollars, but these are then dispersed in local currency at a substantial conversion fee, which yields resources for their rivals. Similarly, Houthi control over the country’s mobile telecoms systems is also a substantial money spinner.
Tackling all these issues could be an essential part of a more comprehensive campaign of external and internal pressure on the Houthi leadership that could be presented to Washington in the coming weeks.
It would also make sense if there was some political reform in Yemen’s eight-member Presidential Leadership Council, which was set up when interim president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi stepped down two years ago. The council is neither very representative of the area that it governs, nor is it functioning daily.
A shake-up in those structures to produce something more effective is now overdue, for the people living in Houthi-controlled areas need to be able to see for themselves that the regions under government control are faring better. This would increase the pressure for a real political track.
Just as importantly, it would curb the aggression coming from the Houthis. There are those who argue against viewing the group as a proxy for Tehran – in that it has its own regional ambitions, agenda, web of relationships and resources. There is, therefore, a specific need to contain the globalisation of the Ansar Allah movement, including its procurement networks.
Decades of alliance-building by Iran in a string of Arab countries have dramatically come to a halt and slipped into reverse gear in recent months. How far this momentum carries on is the question on many a lip. It is unrealistic in the current conditions to think that the Yemeni stalemate will endure untouched.
UN-style management of the dreadful humanitarian outcomes of Yemen’s conflict and divisions has been for a long time the only alternative on the table.
The crisis in the Levant will inevitably be a top priority for the incoming Trump administration. And few can doubt the pressure that will indeed be directed towards Tehran. Houthi aggression must be dealt with, too.
It is inconceivable that with so much change across the region, Yemen’s deadlock will not be priority within this agenda.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Golden Shoe top five (as of March 1):
Harry Kane, Tottenham, Premier League, 24 goals, 48 points
Edinson Cavani, PSG, Ligue 1, 24 goals, 48 points
Ciro Immobile, Lazio, Serie A, 23 goals, 46 points
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, Premier League, 23 goals, 46 points
Lionel Messi, Barcelona, La Liga, 22 goals, 44 points
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Monday's results
- UAE beat Bahrain by 51 runs
- Qatar beat Maldives by 44 runs
- Saudi Arabia beat Kuwait by seven wickets
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
SPEC%20SHEET
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%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20has%20been%20moored%20off%20the%20Yemeni%20coast%20of%20Ras%20Issa%20since%201988.%3Cbr%3EThe%20Houthis%20have%20been%20blockading%20UN%20efforts%20to%20inspect%20and%20maintain%20the%20vessel%20since%202015%2C%20when%20the%20war%20between%20the%20group%20and%20the%20Yemen%20government%2C%20backed%20by%20the%20Saudi-led%20coalition%20began.%3Cbr%3ESince%20then%2C%20a%20handful%20of%20people%20acting%20as%20a%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.ae%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%26esrc%3Ds%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D%26ved%3D2ahUKEwiw2OfUuKr4AhVBuKQKHTTzB7cQFnoECB4QAQ%26url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.thenationalnews.com%252Fworld%252Fmena%252Fyemen-s-floating-bomb-tanker-millions-kept-safe-by-skeleton-crew-1.1104713%26usg%3DAOvVaw0t9FPiRsx7zK7aEYgc65Ad%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3Eskeleton%20crew%3C%2Fa%3E%2C%20have%20performed%20rudimentary%20maintenance%20work%20to%20keep%20the%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20intact.%3Cbr%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20is%20connected%20to%20a%20pipeline%20from%20the%20oil-rich%20city%20of%20Marib%2C%20and%20was%20once%20a%20hub%20for%20the%20storage%20and%20export%20of%20crude%20oil.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%E2%80%99s%20environmental%20and%20humanitarian%20impact%20may%20extend%20well%20beyond%20Yemen%2C%20experts%20believe%2C%20into%20the%20surrounding%20waters%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia%2C%20Djibouti%20and%20Eritrea%2C%20impacting%20marine-life%20and%20vital%20infrastructure%20like%20desalination%20plans%20and%20fishing%20ports.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: JAP Almahfuz, Fernando Jara (jockey), Irfan Ellahi (trainer).
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Momtaz, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,400m
Winner: Yaalail, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh180,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Dahess D’Arabie, Fernando Jara, Helal Al Alawi.
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2.200m
Winner: Ezz Al Rawasi, Connor Beasley, Helal Al Alawi.
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.5-litre%20V12%20and%20three%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C500Nm%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Early%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh2%20million%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The five pillars of Islam
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The five pillars of Islam
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.6-litre%2C%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeight-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E285hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E353Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh159%2C900%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The years Ramadan fell in May
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The five pillars of Islam
The years Ramadan fell in May
Zayed Sustainability Prize
More coverage from the Future Forum
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Seven Skies, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qais Aboud
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Almahroosa, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Sumoud, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Adventurous, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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2.0
Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
MANDOOB
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE SQUAD
Ahmed Raza (Captain), Rohan Mustafa, Jonathan Figy, CP Rizwan, Junaid Siddique, Mohammad Usman, Basil Hameed, Zawar Farid, Vriitya Aravind (WK), Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Zahoor Khan, Darius D'Silva, Chirag Suri
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
On racial profiling at airports
The specs: 2017 Dodge Ram 1500 Laramie Longhorn
Price, base / as tested: Dhxxx
Engine: 5.7L V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 556Nm @ 3,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
