Donald Trump's target isn't the 'deep state' – it's America's institutions

Weeks before his January 20 inauguration, US President-elect Donald Trump is already creating a carnivalesque, dizzying American political atmosphere. He is cultivating the image of not merely being a change agent but an author of calculated chaos. Out with the old, in with the new.

Even more than in 2016, this year Mr Trump ran as a disruptor. He said his mission would not just be "retribution" against his political opponents but would involve a wholesale attack on existing administrative structures, which he derides as a "deep state".

But there is no American deep state – just a government. And it's the target.

Several of Mr Trump’s major cabinet nominations plainly reflect his hostility towards the institutions they are being chosen to head. Some, like potential Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are credible and conventional Republican appointments, perfectly capable of performing their tasks. But others defy not just convention, but also credentials and even credulity.

Secretary of Defence nominee Pete Hegseth is certainly the least qualified figure in modern US history tapped to head this mammoth department. He is a Fox TV news presenter and former Minnesota National Guard major. He has never managed any organisation. Still, Mr Trump expects him to run the US Department of Defence, which employs more than 3.4 million people and is one of the largest and most complex entities in human history.

Mr Trump has nominated former Democratic representative Tulsi Gabbard to be the director of national intelligence, despite her strong record of sympathy for US adversaries like Russia, including its invasion of Ukraine, and the government of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. Similarly, nominating Robert F Kennedy Jr to head the Department of Health and Human Services seems decidedly counterintuitive, given his adherence to anti-vaccine and other conspiracy theories and extensive history of promoting medical and other misinformation. Neither have any experience running large organisations.

Education Secretary nominee Linda McMahon does have managerial experience, as chief executive of a professional wrestling entertainment company. Like Mr Trump, she regularly appeared in its theatrics. Perhaps that was perfect preparation.

And then there are the religious fundamentalists. Russell Vought, tapped to head the crucial Office of Management and Budget, is a Christian nationalist who also believes in total presidential authority with no independent governmental institutions, agencies or departments whatsoever. Similarly, nominated ambassador to Nato, Matthew Whitaker, argues only devout Christians can credibly serve as judges.

All these appointees, well qualified or manifestly not, are united by fealty to Mr Trump. But a shocking number also have faced accusations involving sexual misconduct.

Mr Trump's initial Attorney General nominee, Matt Gaetz, had to withdraw almost immediately because the House Ethics Committee was finalising a reportedly devastating investigation into allegations such behaviour, including with minors. Mr Hegseth is the subject of a detailed police report regarding his alleged sexual assault on a woman he subsequently paid to sign a “nondisclosure agreement” about the incident. Billionaire Elon Musk, who is co-heading a "department" of government efficiency, paid a flight attendant to sign a nondisclosure agreement regarding an alleged sexual assault on an airplane. Mr Kennedy, too, stands accused of sexually assaulting a young babysitter who has described the alleged incident in considerable detail.

Even Ms McMahon is being sued for allegedly enabling the sexual exploitation of minors in her professional wrestling company. And, of course, Mr Trump was found civilly liable for sexually assaulting a columnist in 1996.

This is an unprecedented and horrifying through-line in any emerging administration. It presents a theme of extraordinary levels of alleged transgression and exploitation, of entitlement and abuse of power.

As if these “through the looking glass” appointments weren't disorder enough, Mr Trump is promising something far more disruptive: massive across-the-board tariffs. He has vowed to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10 per cent from China, immediately upon taking office in a few weeks.

His phraseology strongly suggests that he continues to erroneously believe that tariffs are somehow paid by these countries. In reality, they are a massive regressive tax on US consumers and are normally employed to strategically raise prices. There’s no indication Mr Trump understands this, as he prepares to disrupt the global trading system, wreck supply chains and so on.

There is nothing in place to make up for all the goods and services that will be rendered unaffordable. And the tariffs do not seem to be part of any broader national economic strategy.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump and his "border czar" Tom Homan are vowing to implement his promised mass deportations of millions of asylum seekers and undocumented migrants.

An electorate enraged by inflation that hovered just under 3 per cent in the final year of the Joe Biden administration may not be prepared for the impact on prices at large retail stores of massive tariffs on all goods and services from major trading partners combined with the mass deportations of millions of workers.

A huge crisis of credibility faces the educated and technocratic American leadership that runs most major national institutions, particularly in the federal government. That is why this looming national demolition derby appeals to so many Trump voters.

But many may discover they have been relying on federal departments and agencies in ways they did not understand or took for granted. It may not be ideal to have them run by remarkably unsuited or unqualified persons with a pattern of highly disturbing accusations.

Tariffs may not work as expected because they turn out to be a huge new sales tax on ordinary Americans. Expelling millions of migrants may sound great until you see what it actually involves, and the effect it has.

Many Americans may think a carnival of misrule is a political necessity now. But they may soon recall the adage about being careful what you wish for, as buyers' remorse sinks in, prices skyrocket and chaos swirls merrily from sea to shining sea.