Nations wage war for many reasons but ultimately fighting is a political act launched as a means to an end. It is also true that the character of war changes the ways wars are fought, as the Prussian general and theorist Claus von Clausewitz observed.
In the Ukraine conflict, the crossover point of those two dimensions has been reached. And US president-elect Donald Trump seems set to take that confrontation to the next stage.
For Ukraine, this moment of truth has been unfolding quite rapidly since early November. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy openly declared last week that Ukraine lacks the ability to restore control of its 1991 borders.
The former Pentagon official Jim Townsend told a meeting in London that Russia’s use of a nuclear-capable missile to attack the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was a message to the incoming Trump administration.
Meanwhile, Russia said on Monday that it hears there's an openness to peace in Mr Trump's circle, something it contrasted with the stance of the outgoing Biden team.
It is possible to discern the contours of Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks. They seem bound to emerge as Washington's main priority after Mr Trump's inauguration on January 20.
It is impossible to know at this stage whether the fate of a divided Ukraine would be a frozen conflict – of the type that has been seen elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, such as in smaller scale situations in Georgia – or whether we are looking at a much bigger, rigid standstill, like one that was put in place along the Korean Demilitarised Zone line in the 1950s.
One thing is for certain: if a process of talks between Ukraine and Russia takes off in 2025, then that groundwork is being laid now. At the weekend, for instance, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is easy to forget there have been talks before. At the very outset of the war, the oligarch Roman Abramovich was involved in talks in Istanbul in March 2022.
Before the launch of the special military operation by the Kremlin almost three years ago, Russia was at the height of a cycle of rearmament. Some of the new weapons that were the product of that process have been integral to the Russian war effort, such as the hypersonic missile fired last week with a range that could reach London.
But whatever happens at the talks table, the world of rearmament is now a permanent feature.
Mr Trump’s nominee for national security adviser Mike Waltz spoke of what he understands the campaign slogan “peace through strength” will mean for the conflict: “We need to restore deterrence, restore peace and get ahead of this escalation ladder, rather than responding to it.”
For Ukraine, this points to what could be called a South Korea outcome of the war. We already know that the US will essentially raise the bar for European defence spending to 3 per cent, practically doubling the current levels. Ukraine has used its legacy Soviet arms infrastructure and technological innovation to provide both defensive and offensive weaponry that have allowed it to resist an army with far more manpower and weaponry.
Nato procurement officials are seeking to gain an innovative edge at a vastly lower cost than Ukraine has been able to show. Despite attacks on its critical infrastructure, most particularly its power lines, Ukraine has kept its production line going for new drones and modified weapons platforms.
Western defence manufacturers have sought to locate production in Ukraine despite the ongoing war. Nato countries are keen to support and tap its expertise and ingenuity.
Mr Zelenskyy in his weekly message thanked Denmark, Norway and Sweden for a new model framework to bolster weapons production in Ukraine. British manufacturer BAE Systems and Germany’s Rheinmetall have agreed to back production for artillery systems in Ukraine and executives have said they are keen to do more.
Efforts in this area are well screened by the fog of war. Setbacks even within the defence production sector in Ukraine have hindered some of the co-operation.
An estimated 80 per cent of Ukraine's energy grid is damaged or destroyed. An attempt by the UK to ensure Ukraine's electricity substations had bunker-like casings failed to take off this year. The finger has been pointed at senior officials for corruptly stopping a project they weren’t involved in.
Once the Trump team get to work, there will be a clamour to provide art-of-the-deal style offers that catch the eye of the White House. For Europe, no matter how many of these deals it can generate, it is unlikely to offset the deal they have at present.
Just as the American dollar has been the reserve currency of the world, the US military has guaranteed European security. Stepping into a world in which that factor has been pulled away is an inevitability. The war in Ukraine has shown Europeans what is at stake.
It has also demonstrated why that the rest of Europe needs Ukraine’s military experience. Through an emulation of the South Korean model, Kyiv can hold its own through the Trump years and beyond.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More coverage from the Future Forum
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What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries
• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.
• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.
• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.
• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.
• For more information visit the library network's website.
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
