Does Iran have a compelling reason to agree for Hezbollah to be tamed?
This would, after all, involve the Tehran-backed group transforming itself into an exclusively political party that relinquishes its weapons to the Lebanese army and allows the state to exercise authority over territory that is currently under its control. And this would entail the Islamic Republic abandoning its most critical regional tool of influence and reforming its core doctrine.
The answer may be “yes” – for a few notable reasons.
First, Iran faces a stark choice: to either preserve its nuclear weapons programme or maintain its regional proxies. If it insists on the latter, it risks exposing its nuclear facilities to military retaliation from Israel. Tehran’s nuclear ambitions are an absolute priority for its leadership.
The ball is in Iran’s court to revive negotiations with the US and the other permanent members of the UN Security Council, which would ensure the protection of its nuclear facilities and the preservation of its ambition to maintain its “right” to nuclear development (although not necessarily to develop nuclear weapons).
Tehran has apparently understood its military inferiority to Israel and recalibrated its priorities accordingly, returning to the policy drawing board. It has distanced itself from Hamas’s missteps and Hezbollah’s adventures, prioritising its national interests over its “Axis of Resistance” strategy.
Second, Israel, with firm US support, has presented Tehran with a blunt ultimatum: either rein in Hezbollah or risk its military elimination. Tehran has little room for manoeuvre. It cannot provide direct military support to Hezbollah, nor can it protect the group from Israeli attacks on the ground or in its tunnel networks.
In light of this, Iran has sought to present itself as a diplomatic and political facilitator, contributing to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and achieving a ceasefire. While its initial steps faltered, it ultimately realised that its interests required acknowledging the value of its influence in this pivotal moment. Today, its role in Lebanon is markedly different from in the past, prompting a re-evaluation of its calculations.
Third, both US President Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump have agreed on two fundamental points regarding Iran: one, reviving nuclear negotiations with Tehran depends on the latter demonstrating goodwill through modifications in its regional behaviour; and two, Lebanon is the immediate test of Iran’s intentions.
The Iranians initially expected Mr Trump to adopt an aggressive stance after his election, but they were surprised when he signalled a willingness to negotiate with them. Mr Trump, it seems, conveyed that genuine co-operation would yield significant rewards, while deception would result in severe sanctions and economic collapse.
The president-elect, meanwhile, has reportedly thrown his support behind Mr Hochstein’s mission to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Strategically, Iran assigns great importance to improving relations with the incoming Trump administration, especially as it recognises its inability to rescue Hezbollah militarily. Tehran, therefore, has concluded that taming Hezbollah is preferable to witnessing its total annihilation.
Accordingly, the group has in recent days adopted positions that have facilitated negotiations between Mr Hochstein and Lebanese Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. It has expressed support for a presidential election in Lebanon, which is a departure from its earlier obstructionist policy. It has also stated its intention to abide by Lebanon’s post-civil war Constitution.
This marks a significant shift in the group’s stance, as the Constitution emphasises the state’s sovereignty and the exclusive possession of arms by the state.
These shifts may or may not reflect the true intentions of the group or its patrons in Tehran. However, the reality is that a degraded Hezbollah faces a choice: either elimination or acceptance of a role in Lebanon’s political landscape.
If negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah succeed, the subsequent agreement will act as a mechanism for implementing Resolution 1701, which encompasses Resolution 1559. Together, these resolutions provide a roadmap for Lebanon’s recovery and its liberation from the grip of both Israel and Hezbollah.
If and when both sides agree to a deal, Mr Hochstein will request them to commit in writing to the terms of the agreement by a specified date, marking the cessation of hostilities. From that point on, a 60-day period will begin, during which time the Lebanese army will be posted in the area between the border and the Litani River.
A broader implementation monitoring committee – including Lebanon, Israel, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, the US and France – will oversee the execution process. A trilateral military committee comprising Lebanon, Israel and Unifil will address the 13 disputed points along the border in preparation for formal border demarcation. (Eight of these 13 points were resolved last year before the recent conflicts erupted.)
Demarcating the border will be immensely important. For one, it would end Israeli occupation and eliminate Hezbollah’s justification for maintaining weapons under the pretext of resistance. In other words, the resistance narrative will end, along with Hezbollah’s rationale for bearing arms.
Over the next three months, Lebanon’s Parliament should elect a president. Then, discussions on a national defence strategy will begin, followed by Hezbollah handing over its weapons to the Lebanese army.
This, in a nutshell, is the roadmap for saving Lebanon from destruction and for sparing Hezbollah from annihilation. It is also the roadmap for preventing Israel from occupying Lebanese territory under the pretence of targeting Hezbollah’s missiles and tunnels. Additionally, it is the roadmap for disarming Palestinian factions that claim to resist Israel no Lebanese soil.
This is not a matter of optimism or pessimism. It is political realism, which Iran understands well. And this could explain its submission to the idea of taming Hezbollah.
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Company%C2%A0profile
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Feb 7-9: Mubadala Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Mar 9-10: Copper Box Arena in London, UK
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Players Selected for La Liga Trials
U18 Age Group
Name: Ahmed Salam (Malaga)
Position: Right Wing
Nationality: Jordanian
Name: Yahia Iraqi (Malaga)
Position: Left Wing
Nationality: Morocco
Name: Mohammed Bouherrafa (Almeria)
Position: Centre-Midfield
Nationality: French
Name: Mohammed Rajeh (Cadiz)
Position: Striker
Nationality: Jordanian
U16 Age Group
Name: Mehdi Elkhamlichi (Malaga)
Position: Lead Striker
Nationality: Morocco
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
The%20specs
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Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
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PRISCILLA
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Rajasthan Royals 153-5 (17.5 ov)
Delhi Daredevils 60-4 (6 ov)
Rajasthan won by 10 runs (D/L method)
F1 The Movie
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Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
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Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. Men from Barca's class of 99
Crystal Palace - Frank de Boer
Everton - Ronald Koeman
Manchester City - Pep Guardiola
Manchester United - Jose Mourinho
Southampton - Mauricio Pellegrino
