The Middle East conflict and this year’s US presidential election are affecting one another in important ways.
We are seeing an internal debate unfolding within the Democratic Party, coupled with a hardening of views on the Republican side. As a result, there is little hope that, whoever wins, there will be any significant change in US policy towards the Middle East.
Israel’s war in Gaza has caused a rift within the Democratic coalition. During the past decade, several mass movements have arisen in the US in response to women’s rights, race, immigration and gun control. All of these have erupted as partisan issues pitting Democrats against Republicans. The mass movement in support of Palestinian rights and a ceasefire in Gaza is the latest of these mobilisations and is made up of the same progressive constituent groups.
But the key difference between the pro-Palestinian movement and the others is that instead of being a strictly partisan effort, it has been an intra-party affair pitting key elements of the Democratic coalition against the party’s leadership.
Recent polling shows that for the first time, more Democrats sympathise with Palestinians over Israelis, want an immediate ceasefire, and support suspension of military aid to Israel. They are also disinclined to see the US militarily involved in conflicts in the Middle East and the rest of the world. These attitudes are especially pronounced among young voters and non-white voters – key components of the Democratic coalition.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the rift will continue to grow – both within the Democratic Party and between the two parties
This tension within the Democratic Party is real and may cost the party votes in some states.
While changing attitudes within the Democratic Party resulting from the war have caused some to become alienated from the party’s historic ties with Israel, this shift is also beginning to have an impact on policy. Record numbers of Democratic members of Congress have signed on to bills and letters urging a ceasefire or calling for limits on US arms shipments to Israel.
Republicans, on the other hand, remain dominated by the Christian right and remnants of the neoconservative movement. Both share a Manichaeistic world view – that there is a fundamental conflict between good and evil – which is uncritically supportive of Israel’s role in the region and the world. Despite the costs in US lives, treasure and prestige resulting from the disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, both of these ideological currents continue to see the US as the driving force for good in the world.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the rift will continue to grow – both within the Democratic Party and between the two parties.
I don’t expect that a Kamala Harris-led administration would make any immediate or dramatic shift in its approach. The still-dominant Democratic foreign policy and political consultancy establishments are cautious and out of touch with the changing dynamics within the electorate and the diminished capacity of the US in the world.
But I do expect that eventually, they will be forced to recognise and make some accommodation to the political pressures building from below.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is Donald Trump. I expect an administration led by him would be as unconventional and as unpredictable as it was the last time around.
That said, despite his desire to avoid entanglement in foreign wars, he would not deviate from, nor would he challenge, his supporters’ beliefs in US primacy and the righteousness of Israel’s behaviours. But the extent of the complex tensions roiling the Middle East would require him to make some accommodation.
I am not sure that either the Republican or, for that matter, the Democratic foreign policy establishment, are up to the task. They will need to think bigger than playing “whack-a-mole” with Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Libya and Yemen. They will need to recognise that the US can’t make change without addressing historic grievances. And they will need to address new realities that are transforming the region.
It’s clear that while there is change afoot in both American politics and in the dynamics unfolding across the Middle East, new thinking and creative leadership are needed. This new thinking appears to be developing more in the Middle East than in the US, which is still stuck in the old post-Cold War mindset that sees the US as the “indispensable nation”, the “shining city on the hill”, or the “beacon of freedom”.
While there will continue to be a heated debate on the Democratic side over the US’s role in the region and the world, I’m not confident that the GOP, such as it is, will be capable of engaging in the kind of self-criticism needed to make change possible.
A consequence of this will be partisan tension and gridlock making the US, in the near term, unable to play a meaningful role in contributing to peace and stability in the Middle East. This has resulted in many key US allies moving independently to both secure themselves and ease regional tensions.
Webinar replay: How the war in the Middle East will shape the 2024 US presidential election
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Four tips to secure IoT networks
Mohammed Abukhater, vice president at FireEye in the Middle East, said:
- Keep device software up-to-date. Most come with basic operating system, so users should ensure that they always have the latest version
- Besides a strong password, use two-step authentication. There should be a second log-in step like adding a code sent to your mobile number
- Usually smart devices come with many unnecessary features. Users should lock those features that are not required or used frequently
- Always create a different guest network for visitors
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
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Director: Joyce Bernal
Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa
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(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
The biog
Family: wife, four children, 11 grandchildren, 16 great-grandchildren
Reads: Newspapers, historical, religious books and biographies
Education: High school in Thatta, a city now in Pakistan
Regrets: Not completing college in Karachi when universities were shut down following protests by freedom fighters for the British to quit India
Happiness: Work on creative ideas, you will also need ideals to make people happy
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
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