In a week, the US will hold its most consequential election since the Civil War-era.
It pits a centrist Democratic Party led by Vice President Kamala Harris, still committed to the Constitution and rule of law, against a personalised Republican Party that serves only its leader, former president Donald Trump, who has called for entire articles in the Constitution to be “terminated” to keep him in power.
The election will either reaffirm US political norms and traditions or usher in an experiment with American tyranny modelled after that in some other states: an openly self-serving president supported by and, in turn, favouring, politicised oligarchs, as I explained in these pages last week.
Tyranny is by no means guaranteed if Mr Trump wins. He will enter the White House with experience and preparation, ready to try to replace thousands of civil servants with handpicked ideological cronies, as he himself has said he would. But the opposition will be similarly prepared, and efforts to defend the rule of law will kick into action without hesitation, because Mr Trump’s intentions are so clearly telegraphed.
This matters for the rest of the world, including Gulf countries. Ms Harris stands for US traditions at home and abroad. She represents the continuation of the post-Second World War and post-Cold War US policies that centre on robust internationalism based on alliances and long-standing friendships around the world. Mr Trump, by contrast, has viewed these alliances, even Nato, with cynicism, often seeing them as little more than a protection racket, demanding payment directly to the US from any country that benefits from its protection.
Some Gulf countries have been seeking “ironclad” mutual defence agreements. This has yet to be achieved, but considerable progress has been made in this direction with the administration of President Joe Biden. Further progress under Ms Harris appears entirely plausible. But given his attitudes towards international relations, there seems little chance of any such agreements under Mr Trump.
If the Biden administration played any role in prompting the October 7, 2023 attack in Israel that produced a series of interwoven crises rocking the Middle East, it wasn’t through neglect, weakness or any egregious error. On the contrary, insofar as Hamas paid any attention to Washington regarding this attack, it was seeking to thwart the Biden administration’s progress in talks with Saudi Arabia for a triangular agreement involving normalisation with Israel.
Some Arab countries have adopted a policy of strategic diversification as a consequence of uncertainty about the nature of the US security commitments and Washington’s willingness to act in their defence. Yet they remain fundamentally committed to keeping the US as the centrepiece of their diplomatic architecture and primary partner of choice in key national security strategies.
The unpredictability and arbitrary nature of the personalised presidency promised by Mr Trump is not in the interest of America’s allies and partners. Unpredictability has been Washington’s biggest failing in recent decades, and Mr Trump is the last person to correct that fault.
Dark clouds are looming over Washington even before a possible Trump victory.
Two major newspapers – The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times – declined for the first time in decades to endorse a presidential candidate, allegedly to curry favour with Mr Trump. Owner Jeff Bezos denied there was any connection between the Post’s decision and his space company’s meeting with Mr Trump last week.
Like the Silicon Valley elites I described last week, some of these media-owning would-be oligarchs are breaking the first rule of resisting tyranny proposed by historian Timothy Snyder: “Do not obey in advance.”
Tellingly, all the distortions to American traditions coming from the wealthy and powerful find them adapting to Mr Trump, not Ms Harris. No one is self-censoring in fear of a crackdown by Democrats. And Republican voters are relatively blase about the outcome, knowing that everything will go on as usual even if they lose. Democrats are gripped with huge alarm, because they have every reason to believe that if they lose, the constitutional system may be upended.
As its closing argument, the racism of the Trump campaign has hit a deafening crescendo.
Today in Dearborn, Michigan, home of the largest Arab-American community in the country, I was immediately confronted by a huge billboard featuring a blue Star of David and slogans about how Ms Harris can be relied upon to “protect Israel” and “our Jewish communities”. It was widely reportedly to be the handiwork of a shadowy Republican-linked group.
At an intensely racist Trump rally in New York City’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday, one speaker referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating pile of garbage”. Another referred to Ms Harris as “the Antichrist”. Then one of Mr Trump’s closest aides, Stephen Miller, thundered that “America is for Americans and Americans only”.
It’s the perfect coda to the campaign that promises Mr Trump will be “a dictator” but only on “day one”. He has threatened to use the military and police against political opponents, to crush and deport pro-Palestinian campus protesters and “set that movement back 25 or 30 years”, to instigate “bloody” mass deportations of up to 15 million migrants, and to wage an all-out war against “the enemy from within”.
Mr Trump is overtly offering a wild experiment in authoritarianism. US allies should readily understand that American fascism would offer nothing useful.
There is a growing sense that, after the hate-filled Madison Square Garden rally, the tide may be turning decisively against Mr Trump. Arab countries, and all friends of the US, should be deeply relieved when Ms Harris wins.
Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania
Verdict: 4 Stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
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Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
THE SPECS
Touareg Highline
Engine: 3.0-litre, V6
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 340hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh239,312
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
Keep it fun and engaging
Stuart Ritchie, director of wealth advice at AES International, says children cannot learn something overnight, so it helps to have a fun routine that keeps them engaged and interested.
“I explain to my daughter that the money I draw from an ATM or the money on my bank card doesn’t just magically appear – it’s money I have earned from my job. I show her how this works by giving her little chores around the house so she can earn pocket money,” says Mr Ritchie.
His daughter is allowed to spend half of her pocket money, while the other half goes into a bank account. When this money hits a certain milestone, Mr Ritchie rewards his daughter with a small lump sum.
He also recommends books that teach the importance of money management for children, such as The Squirrel Manifesto by Ric Edelman and Jean Edelman.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
The five pillars of Islam
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
