Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and its apparent subsequent elimination of his likely successor, Hashem Safieddine, has left a vacuum in the group’s political leadership. This creates considerable space for the senior Shiite politician in Lebanon’s governing structure, Nabih Berri, the Speaker of Parliament.
For years, Mr Berri has represented a facade for Hezbollah in the Lebanese state. A highly influential politician, he has also benefited by being the main intermediary with the group, which dominated the political system. In a recent speech, Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s deputy, described Mr Berri as Hezbollah’s “big brother”. But that praise hid a warning to the Speaker: don’t transgress Hezbollah’s red lines, or else.
There have been reports recently that the administration of US President Joe Biden is trying to push Lebanon’s political class to bring in a new president. Since Parliament elects presidents in the country, the pressure has been on Mr Berri to convene a session for a vote and hold successive rounds of voting until a candidate wins. According to media reports, Washington would like to see the army commander, Joseph Aoun, elected.
Some influential American voices on the Middle East, such as Robert Satloff of the Washington Institute, have mentioned that there is talk in the US capital of sanctioning Mr Berri if he refuses to hold such a parliamentary session. It is doubtful, however, that the Biden administration would do such a thing, as it would only further block the political system in Lebanon and achieve nothing.
For many Lebanese, Berri embodies everything that’s wrong about Lebanon’s political class. It’s also true that he is a pragmatist
Understandably, Mr Berri has resisted holding an election, arguing that for this to happen, a consensus must exist around a candidate. He knows that Hezbollah would view a forced election as an American, and Israeli, effort to exploit its vulnerabilities today to impose on it a candidate it does not want. Mr Berri will not isolate himself within his own community on behalf of the Biden administration.
For many Lebanese, Mr Berri embodies everything that’s wrong about Lebanon’s political class. He has been in office since 1992, is regarded by many people as lacking ethics, and was a main defender of the corrupt structure that led to the financial collapse of 2020, depriving millions of Lebanese of their savings. This is undeniable.
Yet it’s also true that Mr Berri is a pragmatist. As he watches the ruin of particularly the Shiite community, because of Israeli bombing, he must surely be thinking of what this means for him and his authority. Though he is 86, the Speaker still clings to power and probably realises that the weakening of his community will necessarily make him weaker. Therefore, he has a vested interest in reaching compromises that can avert such an outcome.
Mr Berri sits at the intersection of the two logics that have prevailed in Lebanon since Hezbollah opened a front with Israel on October 8 of last year, and which escalated dramatically last month. On the one side is a logic of resistance, represented by Hezbollah, which has sustained the conflict with Israel, purportedly in support of Gaza.
On the other is a logic of the state, whereby many Lebanese feel that their country should no longer be carried into war by an armed non-state actor loyal to Iran, which has never bothered to consult the country’s government. They believe that the state must re-assert itself, as must the one institution that retains national credibility, namely the army.
When it comes to the presidency, the logic of resistance points in the direction of Suleiman Frangieh, whom Hezbollah endorsed as its candidate, supposedly because he was the person best able to “defend the resistance”. The logic of the state, in contrast, leads to Gen Aoun, because the armed forces will not only play a central role in any post-war order, but also in maintaining internal security, as the country struggles with how to care for more than 1.2 million angry, dislocated and humiliated Lebanese.
Mr Berri, as head of the last functioning governing institution in the state (the presidency is vacant and the cabinet is ruling in a caretaker capacity), will be essential in shaping which candidate prevails – or more likely what kind of compromise will be reached around a candidate. He will also play a key role in persuading Hezbollah to rally to any accord, even if he will probably have to deal with a party doubly suspicious and intransigent.
One potential direction he may explore with other members of the political leadership is to propose a dialogue to discuss a national defence strategy for Lebanon. Such a strategy has been a code word in the past to integrate Hezbollah’s weapons into the state. Hezbollah has refused to engage in any such discussion, but with many Lebanese deeply hostile to the group’s military autonomy, which dangerously isolates Hezbollah, and the Shiite community devastated, it may be more willing to talk.
There is also another major problem. Mainly Shiite-majority towns, villages and neighbourhoods have been destroyed across Lebanon. To rebuild them and avoid a backlash from its own community, Hezbollah will need assistance from the state, which alone can bring in the funds necessary for reconstruction. That means the group and the state will have to negotiate, which may compel Hezbollah to water down its refusal to compromise.
Mr Berri will be at the heart of this maelstrom, and he will try to widen his margin of manoeuvre with respect to Hezbollah, while preserving his power in the Shiite community and the leverage this gives him. Such calculations suggest he will be a dominant actor in the months ahead, if his health holds out. The only unknown is whether Iran, which today is said to have filled the leadership vacuum in Hezbollah, will go along with the Speaker.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:
Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')
Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
More coverage from the Future Forum
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
New Zealand 57-0 South Africa
Tries: Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder (2), Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Ofa Tu'ungfasi, Lima Sopoaga, Codie Taylor. Conversions: Beauden Barrett (7). Penalty: Beauden Barrett
Mica
Director: Ismael Ferroukhi
Stars: Zakaria Inan, Sabrina Ouazani
3 stars
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Specs
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Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
