Nickolay Mladenov is director general of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy. He was formerly undersecretary general of the UN, and foreign and defence minister of Bulgaria
October 22, 2024
Lebanon is teetering on the edge, struggling with a devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel, political paralysis and economic freefall. The US is reportedly seeking to use Israel's offensive as an opportunity to weaken the militant group's longstanding influence, break the two-year political deadlock caused by Hezbollah’s influence and push the Lebanese political elite to elect a president.
But Lebanon doesn’t just need a new face at the helm, it needs a strong backbone. And that backbone can be provided by the Lebanese Armed Forces. By shifting the focus from political optics to empowering the army, Lebanon’s friends can pave the way for real security, sovereignty and lasting recovery.
To halt the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, Lebanon needs a multi-faceted diplomatic and security package. Immediate efforts should focus on brokering a ceasefire that allows for the army to take control of the country’s border areas with Israel.
Accelerating the posting of the army in southern Lebanon with an enhanced Unifil mandate can serve as a visible commitment to border security, reducing the pretext for Israeli military actions. Unifil, or the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, is a peacekeeping mission established in 1978 to monitor the cessation of hostilities, support the Lebanese government in extending its authority in the south and ensure security along the border with Israel. As the Hezbollah threat to Israel in southern Lebanon diminishes, and the army asserts control, guarantees should be put in place to avoid escalation in the future.
Lebanese soldiers secure the site outside an apartment building hit by an Israeli air strike in Beirut's Cola district, on September 30. AFP
Meanwhile, the political stalemate in Beirut is not just a reflection of internal divisions but is compounded by the shifting dynamics of regional power. External players view Lebanon through the lens of their respective strategic interests. In this environment, the army stands out as a rare pillar of stability in Lebanon’s fragmented landscape. It commands respect across the political spectrum and remains one of the few institutions capable of bridging the country’s deep divides.
Yet, the push to install a new president under pressure and as the country is reeling from Israeli attacks on Hezbollah could inflame tensions and deepen divisions. As a first step, the army must be front and centre of international efforts to support Lebanon, empowering the armed forces to take on the urgent task of securing the borders and creating a safe space for political and economic revival.
Recent history has shown that leadership changes alone have been insufficient to stabilise the country. The 2016 election of Michel Aoun as president did little to curb the economic collapse or reduce Hezbollah’s influence. Strengthening the army, however, should not be just a military priority – it is a national necessity. A comprehensive support package, including financial aid, modern equipment and strategic backing from regional and international allies, can transform the army into a force capable of leading Lebanon’s recovery.
Since 2019, the country's economic collapse has led to severe pay cuts for soldiers, reducing their salaries from an average of around $800 a month to less than $100 a month. But money isn’t the only factor. The army also needs ammunition, fuel, uniforms and advanced training to operate as a modern, disciplined force. With such support in place, it can turn its attention to securing the borders, starting with the south. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 remains the basis for a ceasefire with Israel and its full implementation both by Lebanon and Israel is critical.
Documents of Hezbollah-run Al Qard Al Hassan are scattered at the site of an Israeli air strike on Sunday night in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon. AP
An excavator clears the rubble at the site of the Israeli air strike that targeted the branch. AFP
Smoke rises after an Israeli air strike on Dahieh in southern Beirut. EPA
People drive next to a building, targeted in an Israeli air strike in Beirut's southern suburbs. AFP
A displaced child outside a makeshift tent in Beirut's seaside promenade. AFP
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs near Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport after an Israeli air strike. Reuters
Children who fled Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanon, attend a drawing workshop organised by volunteers, at a shelter in Beirut. AFP
People displaced from Lebanon board a ship bound for Turkey at the port of the northern city of Tripoli. AFP
Moreover, Lebanon's stability is intertwined with the situation in Syria. The influx of Syrian refugees has placed additional strain on Lebanon’s fragile economy and social fabric. The government estimates that the country hosts 1.5 million refugees since the beginning of the Syrian refugee crisis. Meanwhile, the UN reports that in the past two weeks, about 250,000 Syrians have returned home fleeing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. The eastern frontier with Syria is a key battleground in the fight to control the flow of weapons, militants and illegal drugs such as Captagon.
The army should be supported to shut down illegal crossings and secure official entry points. This requires a co-ordinated effort with Syria and the backing of international partners to provide the technology and training needed to do the job right. Strong borders mean less room for outside actors to manipulate Lebanon’s security situation by supporting non-state militias, allowing the country to reclaim its sovereignty.
No one is suggesting that Lebanon can ignore its political stalemate. Electing a president remains a vital step, but it is critical to avoid the pitfalls of solutions imposed by outsiders. External actors, while influential, must recognise the country’s political complexities, which may not be addressed by a single election. The international community must resist the temptation to pick winners and losers in the process. The army’s role in providing stability buys time and space for the political process to unfold naturally, rather than being rushed into decisions that could backfire.
Economic recovery must go together with security reforms. International aid should prioritise rebuilding Lebanon’s shattered infrastructure, helping displaced communities, and restoring vital services such as electricity, water and health care. The economic collapse has drained public trust in state institutions, making it even more crucial for aid to be delivered transparently and equitably. But even this must be done with care: if the army succeeds in providing security, it must extend that protection to the most marginalised communities, including the Shiite population.
Lebanon’s future won’t be decided by a single election, nor will it come from the outside. It rests in the hands of its people and the institutions that serve them. And right now, the army is the country’s best hope. By focusing on a strong, independent military, it can reclaim its sovereignty and set the stage for political renewal.
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024. It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine. Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages]. The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts. With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians. Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved. Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world. The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany - At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people - Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed - Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest - He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Recipe: Spirulina Coconut Brothie
Ingredients
1 tbsp Spirulina powder
1 banana
1 cup unsweetened coconut milk (full fat preferable)
1 tbsp fresh turmeric or turmeric powder
½ cup fresh spinach leaves
½ cup vegan broth
2 crushed ice cubes (optional)
Method
Blend all the ingredients together on high in a high-speed blender until smooth and creamy.
The specs: 2017 Porsche 718 Cayman
Price, base / as tested Dh222,500 / Dh296,870
Engine 2.0L, flat four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed PDK
Power 300hp @ 6,500rpm
Torque 380hp @ 1,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.9L / 100km
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), EsekaiaDranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), JaenBotes (Exiles), KristianStinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), EmosiVacanau (Harlequins), NikoVolavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), ThinusSteyn (Exiles)
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
The biog
Favourite book: Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi
Favourite holiday destination: Spain
Favourite film: Bohemian Rhapsody
Favourite place to visit in the UAE: The beach or Satwa
Children: Stepdaughter Tyler 27, daughter Quito 22 and son Dali 19
