If war is the continuation of politics by other means and every conflict is a symptom of a deeper unresolved contradiction, the violence of the past year – as well as the current direct confrontation between Israel and Iran – are the result of two deep and unresolved political problems.
These are the denial of Palestinians’ basic rights amid long-term Israeli occupation and Iran’s rejection of the basic rules of international law, as well as its insistence on maintaining a string of militias in broken Arab states from Lebanon to Yemen.
A Middle East in which a secure Palestine and Israel live side by side, embedded in a harmonious Arab and Muslim world, as well as an Iran that has pivoted away from its interventionist foreign policy to focus on the security and welfare of its own people, is a Middle East that would be on the road to true stability and prosperity.
Is this a pipe dream, or does every crisis indeed create an opportunity? Are these goals too big to pursue, or the only ones worth pursuing? Can leaders pursue such large visions? I believe they can and many in the region have done so before. Indeed, what the region needs is a Vision 2030 for the Middle East. Below are two key elements of a bold way forward.
A two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was largely dead before October 7, and had only minority support in Israel. After October 7, Israeli public opinion has dramatically hardened against it. At the same time, the devastation of the past year has brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of regional public opinion; Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan recently made clear that the kingdom would not proceed with normalisation without a resolution to it.
Although Israel has been scoring battlefield victories – at great human cost – against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, it also does not have a rational or sustainable plan for the day after in Gaza and the West Bank, other than reinforced occupation and oppression. But this is not a secure and successful plan for Israel in the 21st century, let alone for Palestinians who will not leave their ancestral lands.
Israel can use its reinforced military superiority to re-establish and intensify the unsustainable conditions of the status quo, or it can forge a new way from a position of confidence and regional partnership in which the Palestinians are offered a political path forward rather than the destructive options of repression or extremism.
Progress requires regional engagement with Israeli figures of all stripes to emphasise the alternative future that lies before us, and engagement with Palestinians to find a route to rebuilding political legitimacy and institutions
Such a pathway will not come from Washington or other global capitals – it must be built in this region. It requires regional engagement with Israeli figures of all stripes to emphasise the alternative future that lies before us, and engagement with Palestinians to find a route to rebuilding political legitimacy and institutions. This is critical to building the framework for a Palestinian state, one that is not penetrated by Iranian or other armed non-state actors outside legitimate Palestinian institutions.
Up until three weeks ago, Iran was doing well. One of its minor proxies, Hamas, had dealt Israel the most crushing blow in its recent history, and Hezbollah – its main ally – was holding Israel to a prolonged retaliatory war across the Lebanese-Israeli border. But since September 17, Israel has dealt a staggering blow to Hezbollah, robbing Iran of its main proxy deterrent; Israel is now taking the war directly to Tehran.
Since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Tehran has fought its battles far away from its borders through proxy wars in Arab lands. With Israel’s blow against Hezbollah, and the rage in Israel since October 7, that strategy is failing. There are two pathways ahead: either the war between Israel and Iran escalates out of hand to engulf both countries or the crisis creates an opportunity for political exits that would avoid further escalation and put the region on a sounder footing.
Iran has no interest in an all-out war with Israel, especially one in which US forces are already deployed to play a strong supportive role. It has already largely lost both Hamas and Hezbollah as effective deterrents against Israel. President Masoud Pezeshkian and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are aware of young Iranians’ sentiment and their need for a positive future.
As with Israel, there is scope for continued regional engagement with Tehran to show that Iran has a secure and prosperous future in the Middle East, but that maintaining its policies of permanently violating the sovereignty of Arab states and open-ended hostility to Israel and the US – with or without a two-state solution – is neither working nor sustainable.
Big conflicts require big solutions and big solutions require long-term vision and commitment. Israel and the region will not know long-term security and prosperity without according the Palestinian people their rights. Iran will not know security and prosperity without respecting the rights of Arab states and international law. Nor will it build a future for its people with the dreams of ideological or imperial fanatics. The region has thought big before; now is the moment to do so again.
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Fight card
Preliminaries:
Nouredine Samir (UAE) v Sheroz Kholmirzav (UZB); Lucas Porst (SWE) v Ellis Barboza (GBR); Mouhmad Amine Alharar (MAR) v Mohammed Mardi (UAE); Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) v Spyro Besiri (GRE); Aslamjan Ortikov (UZB) v Joshua Ridgwell (GBR)
Main card:
Carlos Prates (BRA) v Dmitry Valent (BLR); Bobirjon Tagiev (UZB) v Valentin Thibaut (FRA); Arthur Meyer (FRA) v Hicham Moujtahid (BEL); Ines Es Salehy (BEL) v Myriame Djedidi (FRA); Craig Coakley (IRE) v Deniz Demirkapu (TUR); Artem Avanesov (ARM) v Badreddine Attif (MAR); Abdulvosid Buranov (RUS) v Akram Hamidi (FRA)
Title card:
Intercontinental Lightweight: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) v Angel Marquez (ESP)
Intercontinental Middleweight: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) v Francesco Iadanza (ITA)
Asian Featherweight: Zakaria El Jamari (UAE) v Phillip Delarmino (PHI)
The years Ramadan fell in May
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
Naga
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
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In Search of Mary Shelley: The Girl Who Wrote Frankenstein
By Fiona Sampson
Profile
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
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What is the Supreme Petroleum Council?
The Abu Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council was established in 1988 and is the highest governing body in Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas industry. The council formulates, oversees and executes the emirate’s petroleum-related policies. It also approves the allocation of capital spending across state-owned Adnoc’s upstream, downstream and midstream operations and functions as the company’s board of directors. The SPC’s mandate is also required for auctioning oil and gas concessions in Abu Dhabi and for awarding blocks to international oil companies. The council is chaired by Sheikh Khalifa, the President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi while Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is the vice chairman.
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SPECS
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The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The five pillars of Islam
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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