For Arab Americans, Israel’s war on Palestinians in Gaza looms large and will play a significant role in November’s US presidential election. This is one of the key observations emerging from a nationwide poll of 500 Arab-American registered voters in mid-September, conducted by John Zogby Strategies for the Arab American Institute.
A year of this devastating assault on Gaza has reshaped the Arab-American electorate, souring their attitude towards the Democratic Party, sapping their enthusiasm to vote in this election, and negatively affecting their inclination to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Since we first began polling Arab Americans 30 years ago, the community has consistently favoured the Democratic Party, with the margin of that support holding steady at nearly two to one for the past decade and a half. The Biden administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza, however, has eroded that support resulting in Arab Americans now evenly divided between the two parties – 38.5 per cent for each. Equally revealing is the fact that by a slight margin (46 per cent to 44 per cent) voters in the community say they would prefer to see Republicans control the next Congress.
Arab-American voter turnout has consistently been in the 80 per cent range. But this year only 63 per cent of the community say they are enthusiastic about voting in November, likely affecting voter turnout.
All of this has taken a toll on Ms Harris’s prospects for winning Arab-American votes in her contest with former president Donald Trump. While US President Joe Biden won 59 per cent of the Arab-American vote in 2020, compared with 35 per cent for Mr Trump, this year’s poll shows that in a multi-candidate matchup, both candidates are in a virtual dead heat in the 41-42 per cent range. Ominously for Ms Harris, when only considering likely voters, Mr Trump leads 46 per cent to 42 per cent.
While a few unscientific “polls” have suggested that a third-party candidate would garner a majority of the Arab-American vote, this AAI poll shows that to not be the case. All of the third-party candidates combined receive just 12 per cent of the Arab-American vote. Instead, Mr Trump is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and, I might add, even despair over the Biden administration’s failure in addressing the crisis in Gaza.
This may be surprising given Mr Trump’s record and recent statements, but there are a few factors that may account for this development. On the one hand, it may be that as a result of the year-long trauma, there is a desire to punish Democrats. Additionally, it appears that despite Mr Trump’s dismal record with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and his total support for Israel’s aims in the war, the data from the AAI poll shows that sub-groups previously aligned with the Republican Party are returning to the fold and voting for that party’s candidate. All of which lends emphasis to the way the Gaza crisis has affected this election.
Further evidence of Gaza’s role is the 81 per cent of Arab Americans who say that Gaza will be an important consideration in their vote. For example, when asked if Ms Harris were either to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or to withhold diplomatic support for and arms aid to Israel until it implements a ceasefire and withdraws its forces from Gaza, Ms Harris’s vote among Arab Americans would increase to around 62 per cent.
This new Harris tally captures one-third of Trump voters, while virtually wiping out the votes that would go to the third-party candidates. If Mr Trump were to make the same demands on Israel, he too would benefit, increasing his vote tally to 56 per cent. This increased vote count for Mr Trump comes from one-quarter of Harris voters and one-half of the votes going to third-party candidates.
While these measures are needed and important to end the war, announcing such a policy change in the midst of a campaign might be considered a heavy lift. Other less dramatic steps could have been taken to win more Arab-American support. For example, Ms Harris lost an important opportunity to send a message to Arab Americans demonstrating concern for Palestinians when her campaign refused to include a Palestinian American with family in Gaza to speak at the Democratic convention.
When asked if it would have made a difference in how they would vote if the Harris campaign had invited a Palestinian American to speak, the response was a substantial “yes”. If the campaign had done so, Ms Harris’s vote tally from Arab Americans would have increased to 61 per cent. That moment was squandered, but others may still arise and if Ms Harris still wants Arab-American support, then these opportunities shouldn’t be passed over.
In our 30 years of polling Arab-American voters, we haven’t witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behaviour. The year-long war in Gaza and the catastrophe now facing Lebanon has affected every component sub-group within the community, with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant or native-born, gender and age groups.
With a little over one month remaining before the US election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns over Gaza, and now Lebanon, will be recognised and respected with a promise for change.
Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
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Director: Jesse Armstrong
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Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
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The biog
Favourite books: 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg: A Life' by Jane D. Mathews and ‘The Moment of Lift’ by Melinda Gates
Favourite travel destination: Greece, a blend of ancient history and captivating nature. It always has given me a sense of joy, endless possibilities, positive energy and wonderful people that make you feel at home.
Favourite pastime: travelling and experiencing different cultures across the globe.
Favourite quote: “In the future, there will be no female leaders. There will just be leaders” - Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook.
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Favourite Artist: Meryl Streep
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Fixtures
Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs
Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms
Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles
Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon
Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
Know your camel milk:
Flavour: Similar to goat’s milk, although less pungent. Vaguely sweet with a subtle, salty aftertaste.
Texture: Smooth and creamy, with a slightly thinner consistency than cow’s milk.
Use it: In your morning coffee, to add flavour to homemade ice cream and milk-heavy desserts, smoothies, spiced camel-milk hot chocolate.
Goes well with: chocolate and caramel, saffron, cardamom and cloves. Also works well with honey and dates.
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Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Heavily-sugared soft drinks slip through the tax net
Some popular drinks with high levels of sugar and caffeine have slipped through the fizz drink tax loophole, as they are not carbonated or classed as an energy drink.
Arizona Iced Tea with lemon is one of those beverages, with one 240 millilitre serving offering up 23 grams of sugar - about six teaspoons.
A 680ml can of Arizona Iced Tea costs just Dh6.
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The five pillars of Islam
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
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- 600-seat auditorium
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The five pillars of Islam
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Day 5, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day When Dilruwan Perera dismissed Yasir Shah to end Pakistan’s limp resistance, the Sri Lankans charged around the field with the fevered delirium of a side not used to winning. Trouble was, they had not. The delivery was deemed a no ball. Sri Lanka had a nervy wait, but it was merely a stay of execution for the beleaguered hosts.
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Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
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'C'mon C'mon'
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MATCH INFO
Europa League semi-final, second leg
Atletico Madrid (1) v Arsenal (1)
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MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
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Rating: 4/5
