Can Kamala Harris win back Muslim Americans?

At last month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Oprah Winfrey urged all Americans to “choose joy” and vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November’s presidential election. But for many at the conference, joy quickly gave way to disappointment when Ms Harris denied pro-Palestinian voices the right to speak about the war in Gaza.

In the run-up to the convention, the anti-war Uncommitted movement asked for a speaking slot on the main stage. Thirty of its delegates travelled to Chicago to demand a US arms embargo to Israel, as well as an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. But a day before the event started, the Harris campaign told them it wasn’t happening.

The parents of the Hamas-held Israeli hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin were given a chance to speak, and they received a standing ovation. But one week after the convention, Mr Goldberg-Polin was found dead in Gaza – a terrible tragedy.

It is also a terrible tragedy that the war is continuing, with more than 40,700 Gazans dead and no end in sight. Mr Goldberg-Polin’s death will bring more collective punishment to the enclave, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to quell the protests at home against his right-wing government. However, that collective punishment is unlikely to secure the release of the rest of the hostages.

As the war gets worse, the fissures within the Democratic Party risk widening.

Since the convention, many Democrats I’ve spoken to are thinking twice about voting for Ms Harris. Some say they won’t vote at all; others are backing the Green Party’s Jill Stein, a fierce critic of Israel who is firmly committed to ending the war. Because of the dysfunction in the American electoral system, voting for Ms Stein – or any third-party candidate – essentially means a vote for former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.

While few Democrats want Mr Trump back in office, younger voters are struggling to reconcile with President Joe Biden’s policy to provide unconditional support to Israel.

It is true that antagonising Israel is not a popular stand within the party. In late June, a Brookings Institution report titled How deep is the divide among Democrats over Israel? stated: “There is a divide in the Democratic Party, but the anti-Israel candidates [in Congressional and other races] compose only 2 per cent of the primary winners.”

However, it is also a fact that the Biden administration has lost support for its handling of the war. As far back as last November, when the war had only just begun, CNN cited a poll from Quinnipiac University that stated that Mr Biden’s approval rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters was just 56 per cent for his handling of the war. Compare that to his 76 per cent approval rating for his overall job performance.

“A significant minority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters [36 per cent] disapprove of his handling of the war. Those voters tend to be young,” the report added, although it wouldn’t be completely fair to say that this rift in the party is entirely down to a generational rift and the anti-war protests on college campuses alone. Anti-war demonstrators do cut across age groups.

This is not the first time an issue has polarised the Democrats.

One of the great fractures in the party occurred over the New Deal – former president Franklin Roosevelt’s series of programmes, public works projects, and financial reforms and regulations to rescue the country from the Great Depression that ran from 1933-1938. The divisions that began to appear at the 1932 party convention, when Roosevelt was first nominated for president, continued throughout his nearly three terms in office.

Can Ms Harris paper over the cracks like Roosevelt did almost a hundred years ago?

There is little doubt that the Gaza conflict has reshaped the political views of many Muslim-American voters. This traditional Democratic voting block represents more than 3.5 million people, some of whom are either looking at third-party options or staying home on voting day.

According to a recent poll, both Ms Harris and Dr Stein have 29 per cent support among Muslims. Mr Trump is polling at 11 per cent, followed by two other third-party candidates drawing single digit numbers. Tellingly, more than 16 per cent are undecided.

These findings, echoing earlier assessments of the race, demonstrate how the war has eroded Muslim-American confidence – and support – for Democrats.

A Voice of America report this week stated that, while Mr Biden won 65 per cent of the Muslim vote in 2020, more than 700,000 Democratic primary voters – including many Muslims in key swing states – said they weren’t going to vote for him this year. Mr Biden is no longer in the race, but it is yet uncertain how many would reconsider their decision now that he is no longer running.

Ms Harris is not Mr Biden, who holds a romanticised view of Israel and refuses to stand up to Mr Netanyahu. She certainly appears to be more sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians. Now, she doesn’t support an arms embargo against Israel, and she has reaffirmed her commitment to helping the country defend itself. Her husband is Jewish, and she has spoken at events organised by the pro-Israel lobbying group Aipac.

But she insists that she supports a deal that will secure the release of the remaining Hamas-held hostages and a ceasefire.

Saher Selod, director of research at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, a Muslim research group, said: “Whichever candidate can show they’re going to make the shift in terms of the war in Gaza and getting a ceasefire will have an impact on these Muslim voters and who they vote for.”

I am not entirely pleased with Ms Harris’s stand on Palestine – I want a president who will recalibrate American foreign policy towards Israel – yet I will vote for her. This is because a Trump victory will further embolden Mr Netanyahu. The former president has made it clear that he is no friend to Palestine; neither is he a friend to Muslim Americans.

A ceasefire before November will save thousands of lives in Gaza, and it might get more voters for Ms Harris. She will need them. But for that, she has to work hard to gain their trust. She needs to do more than promise to end the war. She needs to put aside the fierce pressure of lobbying groups, such as Aipac, that for too long have influenced American politics with vast amounts of money.

Just as crucially, Ms Harris has a chance to win back voters like me – who no longer trust the Democratic Party but need to believe again that our leaders, for once, will do the right thing.