On the face of it, the ascent of Thailand’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra to the office of prime minister seems to have healed a hitherto insoluble rift in the country’s politics.
From 2001, when Ms Shinawatra’s father – Thaksin Shinawatra – first came to power in a landslide victory, the parties associated with him and his followers topped the polls in every election until last year. But time and again, those governments were edged out by what is usually referred to as a royalist-military-conservative “establishment”. Members of this establishment objected to what they perceived as Mr Thaksin’s irresponsible populism and the challenge he posed to the status quo.
In 2006, Mr Thaksin was overthrown by the armed forces, and later sentenced in absentia to two years in jail for abuse of power – a ruling he disputed. Yingluck, his sister, was elected as prime minister in 2011, but was ousted by the military in 2014 and sentenced to jail in absentia. Another Thaksin-linked prime minister was disqualified from office by the courts for hosting a cooking show on TV.
Now the youthful Ms Paetongtarn has become prime minister, and her father – who ended his self-imposed exile last year – has reportedly been granted a royal pardon. Despite being sentenced to eight years in prison on his return, Mr Thaksin has not spent any time in jail. However, one more Thaksin ally – Srettha Thavisin – was removed as prime minister by the courts just over a week ago for appointing someone who had served prison time as a Cabinet minister. In addition, Mr Thaksin still faces a charge of defaming the monarchy.
But his daughter has become the country’s new leader with the full support of the ruling coalition, consisting of the Thaksinist Pheu Thai party as well as conservative and pro-military factions. She was also officially endorsed by King Maha Vajiralongkorn on Sunday. Mr Thaksin, meanwhile, has brushed off worries about his last remaining charge. The cycle of parties associated with him winning but then being forced from power appears to have been broken.
Just before last May’s general election, I wrote in these pages: “Some kind of accommodation may seem the obvious answer. While Pheu Thai may be more aligned to the progressive Move Forward party, it is the conservatives they need to reassure and whose backing they will need.” Indeed, an arrangement – even if not officially announced – is generally believed to have been made.
That should be welcomed if it helps put an end to the abrupt changes in government that have been too regular a feature of the past century. In addition, large numbers of people have voted for Mr Thaksin and his followers; their voices do not deserve to be excluded from the political process.
The problem is that there is a new party with many supporters that is now deemed unacceptable by the “establishment”. The above-mentioned Move Forward party actually came first in last year’s general election, winning 38 per cent of the vote and 151 seats in Thailand’s 500-member lower house. Pheu Thai had been expected to win but was beaten into second place with 29 per cent.
Move Forward attempted to form a government but could not come up with the numbers. Earlier this month the party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court for violating Thailand’s constitution by proposing an amendment of a law against insulting the monarchy.
Pita Limjaroenrat, its former leader – and a prime ministerial candidate last year – was also banned from politics for 10 years. Move Forward itself was the reincarnation of the Future Forward party, which was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020, and has now been reborn as the People’s Party.
This pattern of being banned and then re-emerging as a new party is exactly what happened to the various vehicles for Mr Thaksin. Although he may have escaped it, Move Forward clearly has not.
Nominally, it’s all about the lese majeste laws, which are both very strict and open to wide interpretation in Thailand. Precisely because of that, it is difficult to be certain what the general population think about them. But in my opinion, it is unlikely that there is little more than a small minority who want to be free to criticise the king. The monarchies of South-East Asia are widely revered in their countries, both as pillars of stability, as guardians of culture and nationhood, and as the apex of historically hierarchical societies. For most, the idea of insulting royalty would be unthinkable, even heretical.
The question in Thailand is whether laws aimed at protecting the king are open to being misused by an establishment. Many analysts believe so. Michael J Montesano, Senior Associate Fellow at the respected ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, wrote last week: “In its determination to amend the law of lese majeste, the Move Forward party in fact sought — far from toppling the royal institution — to give the monarchy a place in its vision for a more open, dynamic and equitable Thailand.”
The question in Thailand is whether laws aimed at protecting the king are open to being misused by an establishment
Move Forward attracted large numbers of young people who are disproportionately suffering from unemployment and Thailand’s low growth rate. Their voices also do not deserve to be excluded from the political process and, as they represent the country’s future, it would be unwise for anyone to do so.
If the deep rift between Mr Thaksin’s faction and the royalist-military-conservative establishment has been ended, that solves one problem. Trying to sweep aside a party that won 38 per cent of the vote last year, however, creates a new one. Banning extremists is one thing but Move Forward and its supporters cannot be fairly characterised in this way. The party was certainly reformist and would have aimed to reduce the influence of the country’s military, but it was not revolutionary.
Sooner or later, another accommodation needs to be sought. Thai democracy needs to be capacious enough to include all mainstream parties. This would be for the good of the country – but also for the good of the monarchy that the establishment claims so earnestly to defend.
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Cologne v Union Berlin (5.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Freiburg (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach (8.30pm)
Sunday
Mainz v Augsburg (5.30pm)
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (8pm)
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
Company%20Profile
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
The biog
Prefers vegetables and fish to meat and would choose salad over pizza
Walks daily as part of regular exercise routine
France is her favourite country to visit
Has written books and manuals on women’s education, first aid and health for the family
Family: Husband, three sons and a daughter
Fathiya Nadhari's instructions to her children was to give back to the country
The children worked as young volunteers in social, education and health campaigns
Her motto is to never stop working for the country
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
I Feel Pretty
Dir: Abby Kohn/Mark Silverstein
Starring: Amy Schumer, Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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RESULTS
Men – semi-finals
57kg – Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) beat Phuong Xuan Nguyen (VIE) 29-28; Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) by points 30-27.
67kg – Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Huong The Nguyen (VIE) by points 30-27; Narin Wonglakhon (THA) v Mojtaba Taravati Aram (IRI) by points 29-28.
60kg – Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Amir Hosein Kaviani (IRI) 30-27; Long Doan Nguyen (VIE) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 29-28
63.5kg – Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Truong Cao Phat (VIE) 30-27; Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Norapat Khundam (THA) RSC round 3.
71kg – Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ) beat Fawzi Baltagi (LBN) 30-27; Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Man Kongsib (THA) 29-28
81kg – Ilyass Hbibali (UAE) beat Alexandr Tsarikov (KAZ) 29-28; Khaled Tarraf (LBN) beat Mustafa Al Tekreeti (IRQ) 30-27
86kg – Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Mohammed Al Qahtani (KSA) RSC round 1; Emil Umayev (KAZ) beat Ahmad Bahman (UAE) TKO round
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE BIO:
Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.
Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.
Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.
Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
The years Ramadan fell in May
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
