Whether the ongoing Doha talks to end the war in Gaza succeed or fail, the spectre of military strikes between Israel, Iran and their proxies remains a possibility. This is because turning verbal agreements into written commitments is neither an easy nor a swift process.
Side agreements may already account for the need for controlled retaliatory military operations while de-escalation guarantees are being formulated and documented. These skirmishes may take a new form, but they won’t necessarily escalate into a full-scale war if the negotiations in Doha succeed.
However, if those talks collapse – which may or may not happen by the time of publication – the threat of war will increase.
Yet even then, the conflict will probably neither be prolonged nor extensive, no matter how severe the retaliatory strikes are. Instead, this may serve as a prelude to major deals after the destruction, with Lebanon, in particular, standing on the brink.
So what compromises could emerge in Doha? And what will the military landscape look like if the ceasefire negotiations on Gaza fail?
The US Department of Defence is bolstering its military footprint in the Middle East. Its message to all stakeholders is clear: America will not flee from a war in the region. Instead, it will intervene alongside Israel if Iran initiates an all-out conflict, or if matters spiral out of control due to a decision or miscalculation by Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, or any of the Iran-backed factions in Iraq.
The Iraqi government has clearly understood this message and, through Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, postponed the announcement of an end to the US-led international coalition’s mission in the country due to recent regional developments. During a joint news conference in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, Mr Hussein said Baghdad opposes any wars in the region.
Biden is pushing the region’s stakeholders towards tactical agreements rather than longstanding political solutions
Essentially, Iraq has joined Egypt and Jordan in adopting a neutral stance on the war in Gaza, limiting its support to Palestinian civilians and advocating for a ceasefire in the enclave. Only Lebanon has acquiesced to Hezbollah and Iran’s appropriation of its sovereign decision-making, linking its fate to the Gaza war.
In other words, the support front for Hamas in Gaza isn’t led by Israel’s neighbouring states but by the Tehran-led “resistance axis”.
The US administration under President Joe Biden says it is doing everything possible to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and secure guarantees for all the stakeholders. It does not want to entangle Washington in a war against Iran and its proxies, a situation Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and public sentiment inside Israel might be inclined to push it towards.
Despite the Biden administration’s frustrations with the Netanyahu government, US military aid to Israel continues – which, rather than ceasing, is only likely to increase. Washington expects the Middle East’s leaders to understand its strategic alliance with Israel and what it requires.
But the Biden team has adopted short-term pragmatism by pushing the region’s stakeholders towards tactical agreements regarding Gaza, such as an exchange of captives and prisoners, rather than towards longstanding political solutions, including the creation of a Palestinian state and a comprehensive settlement.
It also understands Iran’s central role in Hamas’s decision-making because the latter controls the support front and the potential expansion of the war. Therefore, it is engaging in negotiations with Tehran through third parties, using the following premise: facilitate the Doha negotiations, and we will open a new chapter in US-Iran relations.
The Biden team also recognises the need to save face for Iran, Hezbollah and Israel by allowing for agreed-upon military strikes that are limited and symbolic.
The real danger lies in Israel continuing to target senior figures in Hezbollah or Hamas, which could escalate the shadow war and disrupt the rules of engagement that govern military operations. If either Israel or Hezbollah breaks these rules, a serious war could bring devastation to Lebanon. For the US won’t restrain Israel if Hezbollah decides not to follow the rules of engagement.
Meanwhile, secret talks with Tehran, also involving key Arab powers, aim to achieve the major deal that the Biden administration has sought for months.
Such a deal would leave a significant mark on Mr Biden’s legacy and give Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign against Donald Trump a lift. Even if Washington only contains rather than resolves the Gaza war, this would be considered a half-success that ultimately benefits the governing Democratic Party.
There has been a measure of pragmatism in the Doha talks. For example, Yahya Sinwar’s leadership of Hamas hasn’t deterred Washington from proceeding with the negotiations. Instead, it views Mr Sinwar’s power and decision-making as centralised – and, therefore, currently useful.
The containment principle adopted by the Biden administration may be necessary as a pragmatic step towards achieving a ceasefire, prisoner exchange and a technical, non-political agreement to extinguish the fire and halt the attrition. If the Netanyahu government secures the release of Israeli hostages, it could help the Prime Minister in a future election in Israel and possibly insulate him from trials in his own country. However, it also means that he will have to eat his words and accept Mr Sinwar’s leadership in Gaza.
Meanwhile, the Biden team is working on a deal that could lead Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel. The problem is that the US lacks the clear strategy needed to force Israel to accept a two-state solution. And even if it is achieved, the grand deal will not succeed as long as the US is prepared to appease Iran by legitimising its proxies at the expense of sovereignty in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
During Barack Obama’s presidency, Arab countries were excluded from American negotiations with Tehran under the pretext that these talks were strictly aimed at tackling the latter’s nuclear weapons programme. In reality, Iran imposed political conditions, chief among them being to preserve its regional role through its proxies and affiliated militias.
This time, however, the Arab powers have little interest in agreeing to secret US-Iran deals if they ultimately serve to undermine sovereignty in the Arab world.
Read more about the coronavirus
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
How to keep control of your emotions
If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.
Greed
Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.
Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.
Fear
The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.
Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.
Hope
While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.
Frustration
Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.
Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.
Boredom
Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.
Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.
Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.
"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.
"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
Power: 360bhp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh282,870
On sale: now
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. Mobile phone packages comparison
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
WHAT%20IS%20THE%20LICENSING%20PROCESS%20FOR%20VARA%3F
%3Cp%3EVara%20will%20cater%20to%20three%20categories%20of%20companies%20in%20Dubai%20(except%20the%20DIFC)%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20A%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Minimum%20viable%20product%20(MVP)%20applicants%20that%20are%20currently%20in%20the%20process%20of%20securing%20an%20MVP%20licence%3A%20This%20is%20a%20three-stage%20process%20starting%20with%20%5B1%5D%20a%20provisional%20permit%2C%20graduating%20to%20%5B2%5D%20preparatory%20licence%20and%20concluding%20with%20%5B3%5D%20operational%20licence.%20Applicants%20that%20are%20already%20in%20the%20MVP%20process%20will%20be%20advised%20by%20Vara%20to%20either%20continue%20within%20the%20MVP%20framework%20or%20be%20transitioned%20to%20the%20full%20market%20product%20licensing%20process.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20B%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Existing%20legacy%20virtual%20asset%20service%20providers%20prior%20to%20February%207%2C%202023%2C%20which%20are%20required%20to%20come%20under%20Vara%20supervision.%20All%20operating%20service%20proviers%20in%20Dubai%20(excluding%20the%20DIFC)%20fall%20under%20Vara%E2%80%99s%20supervision.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECategory%20C%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20New%20applicants%20seeking%20a%20Vara%20licence%20or%20existing%20applicants%20adding%20new%20activities.%20All%20applicants%20that%20do%20not%20fall%20under%20Category%20A%20or%20B%20can%20begin%20the%20application%20process%20through%20their%20current%20or%20prospective%20commercial%20licensor%20%E2%80%94%20the%20DET%20or%20Free%20Zone%20Authority%20%E2%80%94%20or%20directly%20through%20Vara%20in%20the%20instance%20that%20they%20have%20yet%20to%20determine%20the%20commercial%20operating%20zone%20in%20Dubai.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Where to submit a sample
Volunteers of all ages can submit DNA samples at centres across Abu Dhabi, including: Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (Adnec), Biogenix Labs in Masdar City, NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City, NMC Royal Medical Centre, Abu Dhabi, NMC Royal Women's Hospital, Bareen International Hospital, Al Towayya in Al Ain, NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
DMZ facts
- The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
- It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
- The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
- It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
- Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
- Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
- Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Pathaan
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UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
HERO%20CUP%20TEAMS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%3Cins%3EContinental%20Europe%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fins%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrancesco%20Molinari%20(c)%3Cbr%3EThomas%20Detry%3Cbr%3ERasmus%20Hojgaard%3Cbr%3EAdrian%20Meronk%3Cbr%3EGuido%20Migliozzi%3Cbr%3EAlex%20Noren%3Cbr%3EVictor%20Perez%3Cbr%3EThomas%20Pieters%3Cbr%3ESepp%20Straka%3Cbr%3EPlayer%20TBC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%3Cins%3EGreat%20Britain%20%26amp%3B%20Ireland%3C%2Fins%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ETommy%20Fleetwood%20(c)%3Cbr%3EEwen%20Ferguson%3Cbr%3ETyrrell%20Hatton%3Cbr%3EShane%20Lowry%3Cbr%3ERobert%20MacIntyre%3Cbr%3ESeamus%20Power%3Cbr%3ECallum%20Shinkwin%3Cbr%3EJordan%20Smith%3Cbr%3EMatt%20Wallace%3Cbr%3EPlayer%20TBC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
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UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
%3Cp%3EFirst%20ODI%20-%20Sunday%2C%20June%204%20%0D%3Cbr%3ESecond%20ODI%20-%20Tuesday%2C%20June%206%20%0D%3Cbr%3EThird%20ODI%20-%20Friday%2C%20June%209%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMatches%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Stadium.%20All%20games%20start%20at%204.30pm%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Adithya%20Shetty%2C%20Ali%20Naseer%2C%20Ansh%20Tandon%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Ethan%20D%E2%80%99Souza%2C%20Fahad%20Nawaz%2C%20Jonathan%20Figy%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Lovepreet%20Singh%2C%20Matiullah%2C%20Mohammed%20Faraazuddin%2C%20Muhammad%20Jawadullah%2C%20Rameez%20Shahzad%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Sanchit%20Sharma%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Global institutions: BlackRock and KKR
US-based BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with $5.98 trillion of assets under management as of the end of last year. The New York firm run by Larry Fink provides investment management services to institutional clients and retail investors including governments, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, banks and charitable foundations around the world, through a variety of investment vehicles.
KKR & Co, or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is a global private equity and investment firm with around $195 billion of assets as of the end of last year. The New York-based firm, founded by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, invests in multiple alternative asset classes through direct or fund-to-fund investments with a particular focus on infrastructure, technology, healthcare, real estate and energy.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
