The markets are in a lather. Investors love certainty and, until Sunday, there was a high probability that Donald Trump would become the next president of the US.
Then, Joe Biden made his historic announcement and suddenly, the jitters set in. All those stocks, currencies, bonds that were thought to benefit from the return of Mr Trump, paused or went into reverse. At the same time, those that would profit from a Democrat triumph, rose.
It’s fascinating to watch - my lack of spare cash and sheer nervousness precludes me from actively participating, plus in the media we have a code of behaviour for this sort of thing and it would not do for me to be tipping a share I held or rubbishing a company where I had a short position.
But as an observer, it tells you much about how the contenders are perceived and where their proclivities lie.
With Mr Trump, eco was a non-starter. Major oil was rubbing its hands. So too, were the banks and tech. In fact, any commercial sector that could justifiably use the prefix ‘big’ was looking forward to his second term.
He was seen to be firmly on the side of the corporate giants, in the thrall of large numbers and returns, of their shareholders and owners, not ordinary consumers. Mr Biden, by contrast, was pro-green, and anti-big.
One of the ironies was that those right-on tech entrepreneurs whose personal beliefs were so wedded to the left were likely to see their company’s activities heavily restricted by a second Biden administration.
It was not just stocks. The Mexican peso climbed as investors absorbed the news that Mr Trump was no longer likely to have it all his own way.
These were the initial moves. Then, the polls showed that Mr Trump was still in the lead. On the back of that, the 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped again, having previously fallen.
Speculators were judging that Mr Trump’s plans to cut tariffs and taxes would drive inflation.
Market swings
Bank stocks also see-sawed. There again, the expectation was that Mr Trump would slash regulation and wave through mergers and acquisitions. Down they went on the Biden withdrawal, back up they moved as it emerged that Mr Trump remained to the fore.
Heavy exporters had seen their values fall in recent months on the strength of Mr Trump and his supporters pursuing an “America first” policy. So, back they also came - Citigroup’s “foreign earners” basket of shares rose 1.2 per cent, while its “domestic earners” was flat.
It’s hard to know which is the chicken and the egg - the markets or the polls. Fund managers pay small fortunes to political analysts to stay ahead of political developments - keeping up with them is not good enough, they must be predicting what will unfold and of course, getting it right.
The markets of course are not purely devoted to the election ups and downs and the eventual outcome. Other factors come into play: the Chinese economy is suffering, which is weighing heavily on boardrooms around the world; the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating, which continues to threaten energy supplies to some major European economies; Europe remains turbulent, with the rise of the far right; France, soon to host the Olympics, is in a particular mess.
Meanwhile, climate change constantly exerts its presence, wiping out crops and wrecking business and lives.
Trump trades
These factors, and more, contribute to the wider investment picture. But in recent weeks, a new phenomenon has swept the markets. “Trump trades” - moves made specifically in anticipation of a Trump victory in November.
The likelihood of a Trump second term following Mr Biden’s disastrous performance in their TV debate was such that entire strategies were being based on a Trump shoo-in.
Companies were also rethinking how they behaved or rather, what they took seriously. “Woke” had slipped back down the agenda. Under Mr Trump, it would have been a virtually banished term.
Several companies unwound their “DEI” - diversity, equity and inclusion - and “ESG” - environmental, societal and governance - credentials. They had included DEI and ESG as measures in their executive bonus calculations but under pressure from Trump followers and fund managers had reduced their importance.
The re-emergence of Ms Harris, however, has changed all that. When she was appointed Mr Biden’s running mate four years ago, Ms Harris was branded the DEI choice, due to her ethnicity and gender. Then the abuse died down as Ms Harris slipped into the background.
Woke is back
Suddenly, on Sunday, DEI was back as Republicans resurrected all their old tropes about her.
Woke, DEI and ESG are very much at the top of the agenda again, as Democrats fight back and make them a central battleground.
Some firms had gone further and scrapped their involvement in cultural campaigns and causes. Even the use of the once ubiquitous identifying pronouns at work had been barred.
Again, all in the belief that there would be a shift away from them with Mr Trump reinstalled in the White House.
Now, though, it would be a brave company indeed that announced it was ditching its woke policies and views and risk incurring the wrath of the resurgent Democrats.
The steady progress towards a Trump triumph is no more. We’re in for a much closer, likely nastier fight, one that tilts in one direction then another.
Investors, companies, it might be time to think again and to sit tight until there is a single clear winner.
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
Tips on buying property during a pandemic
Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.
While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.
While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar.
Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.
Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.
Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities.
Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong.
Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The Book of Collateral Damage
Sinan Antoon
(Yale University Press)
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
Hili 2: Unesco World Heritage site
The site is part of the Hili archaeological park in Al Ain. Excavations there have proved the existence of the earliest known agricultural communities in modern-day UAE. Some date to the Bronze Age but Hili 2 is an Iron Age site. The Iron Age witnessed the development of the falaj, a network of channels that funnelled water from natural springs in the area. Wells allowed settlements to be established, but falaj meant they could grow and thrive. Unesco, the UN's cultural body, awarded Al Ain's sites - including Hili 2 - world heritage status in 2011. Now the most recent dig at the site has revealed even more about the skilled people that lived and worked there.
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
Kalra's feat
- Becomes fifth batsman to score century in U19 final
- Becomes second Indian to score century in U19 final after Unmukt Chand in 2012
- Scored 122 in youth Test on tour of England
- Bought by Delhi Daredevils for base price of two million Indian rupees (Dh115,000) in 2018 IPL auction
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
Thor: Ragnarok
Dir: Taika Waititi
Starring: Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Cate Blanchett, Jeff Goldblum, Mark Ruffalo, Tessa Thompson
Four stars
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
THREE
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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Company%20Profile
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More from UAE Human Development Report:
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
SPECS
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About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
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CRICKET%20WORLD%20CUP%20QUALIFIER%2C%20ZIMBABWE%20
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The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
Amitav Ghosh, University of Chicago Press
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
