In the past nine months, there has been considerable debate as to whether Iran knew beforehand of Hamas’s October 7 attack against Israel. The Iranian regime has suggested it didn’t and this may be true, given that the ensuing conflict has, at least in theory, posed an existential threat to Hamas’s presence in Gaza, a key node in Tehran’s alliance network.
However, ultimately, whether Tehran knew may not be relevant. The reason is that the Iranian system set up in the past decade or so, and even longer, has made it highly probable that the outcome of the war in Gaza will not be to Israel’s decisive advantage. As the Israelis have razed the territory and killed tens of thousands of civilians, Iran has consolidated its regional cards, and it will probably emerge from the conflagration strengthened.
The Iranian system holds few secrets. Tehran has built a string of alliances with non-state or para-state actors all around Israel – with Hezbollah operating from Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias from Syria, the Houthis from Yemen, and Hamas from Gaza and perhaps the West Bank in the future. Israel has shown an inability to halt the progression of such groups, despite its overwhelming military advantage over them.
A main reason is that the Iranian regime has also focused on politics. In Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Iran and its allies have succeeded in dominating weak or weakened states, creating a political foundation for their endeavours. At best, Israel's weapons can have a delaying effect on its enemies, buying time until future battles, but only a limited real impact on the political contexts in which these non-state or para-state actors are able to act.
There is little Israel and the US can do, in large part because both are so divorced from internal dynamics in Arab societies
On the contrary, taking Gaza as an example, Israeli destructiveness is actually playing in Hamas’s favour. By destroying the territory and its society, Israel has undermined any social structures potentially able to push back against Hamas’s choices, even as Hamas is the actor most able to dominate the vast landscape of devastation Israel has created.
Much the same would happen in Lebanon in case of a war. Lebanese society, in its majority, disagrees with Hezbollah, and this has been shown on countless occasions in recent years. Yet Israel’s usual threat to “take Lebanon back to the Stone Age” would so annihilate the sectarian social order that can impose domestic guardrails on Hezbollah, that the party could conceivably come out of a war better off in the long term.
On the Palestinian scene, in fact, there are few signs that the Gaza war has weakened Hamas. On the contrary, it has only highlighted the marginalisation of the Palestinian Authority, as young men in the West Bank appear to be embracing Hamas’s choice of “armed resistance”, no matter how detrimental it has been for Palestinian lives.
In the coming years, Hamas may push Fatah aside as the dominant Palestinian faction, and even perhaps join and take control of the Palestine Liberation Organisation. Already, Hamas last year began indirectly challenging Fatah in the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, Ain Al Hilweh, suggesting it was preparing the ground for a bigger push once Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas leaves the scene.
All this works to Iran’s advantage. It would be simplistic to dismiss Iranian allies as mere “proxies”, as many observers have a tendency to do. All are active and willing participants in a regional project that regards Iranian interests as running parallel with their own. When they gain, Iran gains; and when Iran gains, they do too.
For Israel and the US, this situation would seem to be untenable. However, there is little they can do, in large part because both are so divorced from internal dynamics in Arab societies. A military attack against Iran to change its regime, which some Israelis and their backers view as a silver bullet to resolve the “Iran problem” in the region, is bound to provoke a wider conflict that leads to stalemate, changing very little.
Lest we forget, it is Israel’s appalling treatment of the Palestinians and its refusal to even consider a political solution for its occupation that has allowed Iran to exploit Palestinian discontent. The Iranian regime has been accused of smuggling weapons into the West Bank, and even if Israel retains control over large swaths of Gaza, Hamas will probably continue to resist, while extending its influence into other areas where Palestinians are present.
Iran has doubtless destroyed several of the Arab countries in which it functions, undermining their sovereignty, state structures and even sectarian social contracts. For the Iranian regime to thrive, these countries have been laid to waste. The so-called Axis of Resistance is, really, only an axis of misery. But for it to be overthrown, any challenge needs to come from within the Arab societies themselves, not through outside military action.
Israel and the US don’t have the bandwidth, patience or interest to affect developments in countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Yemen. It is unfortunate that Iran has spent more than a decade, and even more in some countries, using all three to advance its agenda. The war in Gaza will not change that, and Israel is already seeing limitations in its resort to extreme violence.
Palestinian suffering may be intolerable, but Israel is not winning in Gaza. For Iran, this creates an ideal situation to continue to exploit in the future.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
HAJJAN
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Results
2pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: AF Thayer, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: AF Sahwa, Nathan Crosse, Mohamed Ramadan.
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: AF Thobor, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mezmar, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
4pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup presented by Longines (TB) Dh 200,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Galvanize, Nathan Cross, Doug Watson.
4.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Ajaj, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mohamed Daggash.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
Company%20profile
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UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
Defenders: Bandar Al Ahbabi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Mohammed Barghash, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Hassan Al Mahrami, Yousef Jaber, Mohammed Al Attas
Midfielders: Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Majed Hassan, Abdullah Hamad, Khalfan Mubarak, Khalil Al Hammadi, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Harib Abdallah, Mohammed Jumah
Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Profile of Foodics
Founders: Ahmad AlZaini and Mosab AlOthmani
Based: Riyadh
Sector: Software
Employees: 150
Amount raised: $8m through seed and Series A - Series B raise ongoing
Funders: Raed Advanced Investment Co, Al-Riyadh Al Walid Investment Co, 500 Falcons, SWM Investment, AlShoaibah SPV, Faith Capital, Technology Investments Co, Savour Holding, Future Resources, Derayah Custody Co.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
