In the past nine months, there has been considerable debate as to whether Iran knew beforehand of Hamas’s October 7 attack against Israel. The Iranian regime has suggested it didn’t and this may be true, given that the ensuing conflict has, at least in theory, posed an existential threat to Hamas’s presence in Gaza, a key node in Tehran’s alliance network.
However, ultimately, whether Tehran knew may not be relevant. The reason is that the Iranian system set up in the past decade or so, and even longer, has made it highly probable that the outcome of the war in Gaza will not be to Israel’s decisive advantage. As the Israelis have razed the territory and killed tens of thousands of civilians, Iran has consolidated its regional cards, and it will probably emerge from the conflagration strengthened.
The Iranian system holds few secrets. Tehran has built a string of alliances with non-state or para-state actors all around Israel – with Hezbollah operating from Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias from Syria, the Houthis from Yemen, and Hamas from Gaza and perhaps the West Bank in the future. Israel has shown an inability to halt the progression of such groups, despite its overwhelming military advantage over them.
A main reason is that the Iranian regime has also focused on politics. In Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Iran and its allies have succeeded in dominating weak or weakened states, creating a political foundation for their endeavours. At best, Israel's weapons can have a delaying effect on its enemies, buying time until future battles, but only a limited real impact on the political contexts in which these non-state or para-state actors are able to act.
There is little Israel and the US can do, in large part because both are so divorced from internal dynamics in Arab societies
On the contrary, taking Gaza as an example, Israeli destructiveness is actually playing in Hamas’s favour. By destroying the territory and its society, Israel has undermined any social structures potentially able to push back against Hamas’s choices, even as Hamas is the actor most able to dominate the vast landscape of devastation Israel has created.
Much the same would happen in Lebanon in case of a war. Lebanese society, in its majority, disagrees with Hezbollah, and this has been shown on countless occasions in recent years. Yet Israel’s usual threat to “take Lebanon back to the Stone Age” would so annihilate the sectarian social order that can impose domestic guardrails on Hezbollah, that the party could conceivably come out of a war better off in the long term.
On the Palestinian scene, in fact, there are few signs that the Gaza war has weakened Hamas. On the contrary, it has only highlighted the marginalisation of the Palestinian Authority, as young men in the West Bank appear to be embracing Hamas’s choice of “armed resistance”, no matter how detrimental it has been for Palestinian lives.
In the coming years, Hamas may push Fatah aside as the dominant Palestinian faction, and even perhaps join and take control of the Palestine Liberation Organisation. Already, Hamas last year began indirectly challenging Fatah in the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, Ain Al Hilweh, suggesting it was preparing the ground for a bigger push once Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas leaves the scene.
All this works to Iran’s advantage. It would be simplistic to dismiss Iranian allies as mere “proxies”, as many observers have a tendency to do. All are active and willing participants in a regional project that regards Iranian interests as running parallel with their own. When they gain, Iran gains; and when Iran gains, they do too.
For Israel and the US, this situation would seem to be untenable. However, there is little they can do, in large part because both are so divorced from internal dynamics in Arab societies. A military attack against Iran to change its regime, which some Israelis and their backers view as a silver bullet to resolve the “Iran problem” in the region, is bound to provoke a wider conflict that leads to stalemate, changing very little.
Lest we forget, it is Israel’s appalling treatment of the Palestinians and its refusal to even consider a political solution for its occupation that has allowed Iran to exploit Palestinian discontent. The Iranian regime has been accused of smuggling weapons into the West Bank, and even if Israel retains control over large swaths of Gaza, Hamas will probably continue to resist, while extending its influence into other areas where Palestinians are present.
Iran has doubtless destroyed several of the Arab countries in which it functions, undermining their sovereignty, state structures and even sectarian social contracts. For the Iranian regime to thrive, these countries have been laid to waste. The so-called Axis of Resistance is, really, only an axis of misery. But for it to be overthrown, any challenge needs to come from within the Arab societies themselves, not through outside military action.
Israel and the US don’t have the bandwidth, patience or interest to affect developments in countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Yemen. It is unfortunate that Iran has spent more than a decade, and even more in some countries, using all three to advance its agenda. The war in Gaza will not change that, and Israel is already seeing limitations in its resort to extreme violence.
Palestinian suffering may be intolerable, but Israel is not winning in Gaza. For Iran, this creates an ideal situation to continue to exploit in the future.
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Results
4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m; Winner: MM Al Balqaa, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Qaiss Aboud (trainer)
5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard
The view from The National
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
The biog
Name: Atheja Ali Busaibah
Date of birth: 15 November, 1951
Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”
Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry
ACC%20T20%20Women%E2%80%99s%20Championship
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
THE DETAILS
Kaala
Dir: Pa. Ranjith
Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar
Rating: 1.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
BLACK%20ADAM
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From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
On Instagram: @WithHopeUAE
Although social media can be harmful to our mental health, paradoxically, one of the antidotes comes with the many social-media accounts devoted to normalising mental-health struggles. With Hope UAE is one of them.
The group, which has about 3,600 followers, was started three years ago by five Emirati women to address the stigma surrounding the subject. Via Instagram, the group recently began featuring personal accounts by Emiratis. The posts are written under the hashtag #mymindmatters, along with a black-and-white photo of the subject holding the group’s signature red balloon.
“Depression is ugly,” says one of the users, Amani. “It paints everything around me and everything in me.”
Saaed, meanwhile, faces the daunting task of caring for four family members with psychological disorders. “I’ve had no support and no resources here to help me,” he says. “It has been, and still is, a one-man battle against the demons of fractured minds.”
In addition to With Hope UAE’s frank social-media presence, the group holds talks and workshops in Dubai. “Change takes time,” Reem Al Ali, vice chairman and a founding member of With Hope UAE, told The National earlier this year. “It won’t happen overnight, and it will take persistent and passionate people to bring about this change.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
