In male-dominated Iranian politics, a woman has emerged as a kingmaker

In the lead-up to the just-concluded presidential election in Iran, Azar Mansouri held a news conference to make one thing clear: the Iranian Reformist Front, an umbrella of reformist parties she has headed since last year, will partake in the vote only if its candidates are allowed to run.

It was a clear message to the Guardian Council, a candidate-vetting body whose members owe their loyalty to the nation’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ms Mansouri was effectively telling the Council that if it disqualifies its candidates, the IRF will sit out the elections, further reducing the legitimacy of the vote.

This decision amounted to a departure from 2013 and 2017, when the IRF backed the non-reformist, but centrist, president Hassan Rouhani. And so, it was a daring move from a political movement that has spent the past few years in the wilderness. But it was a call that was borne of frustration.

None of the IRF’s candidates were allowed to run in the previous presidential election, in 2021, or in the 2020 and 2024 parliamentary elections. The Guardian Council’s decision to keep reformists out angered many Iranians who sat out those elections, dragging the voter turnout to below 50 per cent.

When hardliner president Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash last May, elections had to be hastily organised. It gave Ms Mansouri the opportunity to issue an ultimatum to the establishment. Her gamble worked.

While two of the three candidates it backed were disqualified, Dr Masoud Pezeshkian was given the green light. The IRF threw all its weight behind his candidacy and collected endorsements of key reformist grandees, such as former president Mohammad Khatami, on his behalf. The rest is history, as Dr Pezeshkian went on to win last weekend.

The President-elect’s campaign featured many high-profile centrist figures, including the “Two Javads” – Mohammad Javad Zarif and Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, both former ministers in Mr Rouhani’s cabinet. But perhaps no other politician had as key a role to play in Dr Pezeshkian’s nomination, and eventual victory, than Ms Mansouri.

A rare female voice in a male-dominated political class, Ms Mansouri built much of her political career in the era of reformists. She is not known to make barnstorming speeches or hold key administrative positions, but she has a reputation for hard bargaining behind closed doors.

Her career dates back to the movement’s rise in the late 1990s. Born in 1964 in Shahre Rey, near Tehran, she has a master’s degree in history. A court order put a stop to her PhD programme, coming at the cost for her political work. And yet much credit goes to her for keeping the reformist movement relevant in Iran’s political scene.

Ms Mansouri advised Mr Khatami and helped him organise his successful presidential campaign in 1997. Two years later, she was elected to Varamin’s city council, where she served until 2003. She was also active in one of the main reformist political parties, eventually becoming its deputy leader.

But the hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s rise to the presidency in 2005 didn’t augur well for her or the movement she represented, as the judiciary shut down a number of reformist parties and jailed several of its politicians. Ms Mansouri was herself sentenced to three years in 2009.

She continued her political work upon her release, serving as part of the leadership of another reformist party. But even as she was allowed to carry out her work during the Rouhani years, she was unable to run in most elections or even organise. In 2020, for instance, she sought to run for Parliament but was denied.

Her disqualification came as no surprise, especially following her vociferous denouncement of the repression of popular protests that broke out in November 2019. These demonstrations, sparked by a fuel price hike, called for the rejection of the regime.

Even as many in the Rouhani administration kept mum while hundreds were killed by the security forces, Ms Mansouri was one of several leaders to condemn the repression. She was just as assertive during the Women, Life, Freedom protests that broke out in 2022 after the death in custody of a young woman for allegedly not veiling properly.

Ms Mansouri has had to walk a tightrope throughout her political career, but she has shown great acumen to survive in the competitive world of politics.

In a society that has long moved past the regime’s set of ideologies, she still heads a party that pledges support to the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the man who founded the republic. While she never endorsed any calls to change the regime, and always pledged non-violence, she also repeatedly condemned the repression of protesters.

Two years ago, she was sentenced to a year in prison and was handed a two-year ban from social work over her support for the 2019 and 2022 protesters. Yet her determination to keep at arm’s length those seeking to overthrow the regime and channel some of the dissenting voices have put her in a unique position. This possibly explains why she was invited to meetings held by regime officials in an acknowledgment of the domestic opposition. (It’s worth noting here that Ms Mansouri quit these meetings after one protester was executed.)

She recently also denounced Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza. But rather than calling for the destruction of Israel, which is the regime’s stated intention, she sought a way to “stop this aggression and occupation is recognition of an independent Palestinian state”.

Ever since she was elected leader of her party in 2021, a rare achievement for a woman, and then leader of the IRF, Ms Mansouri has maintained the upper hand in the reformist camp. Her stand against those reformists who “believe that we should take part in the elections under any conditions” has been well appreciated, as has her insistence that “society shouldn’t believe we will accept any indignity just to have a hand in power”.

Even after Dr Pezeshkian’s victory, she has pledged to continue working on the causes close to her heart. “We will continue our demands,” she said. “We, the forces demanding change, have come out with all our power, despite all of our limitations.”

Ms Mansouri’s influence in Iranian politics can be best illustrated by a phone call she received from interim President Mohammad Mokhber, who sought to assuage her concerns about any electoral irregularities. It is this level of influence that could well secure her a position in Dr Pezeshkian’s cabinet – perhaps even as a vice president.

Whatever role she gets in the new government, if she does, there is little doubt that her voice will be well and truly heard.