Iran's foreign policy under Masoud Pezeshkian is full of promises but also perils


Ali Alfoneh
Ali Alfoneh
  • English
  • Arabic

July 06, 2024

“I swear, on my honour, not to forsake you in the hard journey we have ahead of us. Do not forsake me,” Iran’s President-elect, Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, wrote in an appeal to the Iranian public on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Saturday morning.

Far from triumphant, Dr Pezeshkian’s message reflects his awareness of the formidable challenges he faces: a political system in which half of the electorate boycotted the election; an economy suffering under the international sanctions regime, mismanagement and corruption; and an international environment characterised by high tensions in relations with Israel and the US.

Throughout the campaign and in the televised presidential debates, Dr Pezeshkian pointed out some of the problems in Iran’s political system and economy, but his solutions were abstract. In the foreign policy debate, however, he was remarkably concrete. By comparing his statements with the policy preferences of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, we can predict Iran’s foreign policy under a new president and assess its implications for regional security over the next four years.

A negotiated solution to the crisis over Iran’s controversial nuclear weapons programme was at the centre of most televised presidential debates in the country. Here, Dr Pezeshkian defended former president Hassan Rouhani’s nuclear diplomacy that, in 2015, culminated in the landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's next president, has a popular mandate to revive the nuclear negotiations with the US. AFP
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's next president, has a popular mandate to revive the nuclear negotiations with the US. AFP
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote on Friday. Masoud Pezeshkian cannot act on foreign policy without Khamenei's final approval. Getty
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote on Friday. Masoud Pezeshkian cannot act on foreign policy without Khamenei's final approval. Getty
A negotiated solution to the crisis over Iran’s controversial nuclear weapons programme was at the centre of most televised presidential debates in the country

Dr Pezeshkian also openly accused his rivals, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, of sabotaging Mr Rouhani’s attempts at renegotiating the JCPOA with US President Joe Biden’s administration in 2021. According to Dr Pezeshkian, they did not oppose the JCPOA as a matter of principle but in order to deny Mr Rouhani a diplomatic victory, negotiate the deal themselves and take credit for an agreement with the US.

Dr Pezeshkian has a popular mandate to revive the nuclear negotiations with the US, but strategic decisions in Iran are made by the Supreme National Security Council, where the IRGC exercises significant influence, and whose decisions must be approved by Mr Khamenei.

The supreme leader, in turn, who was angered when former US president Donald Trump withdrew his country from the JCPOA in 2018, is not likely to authorise a new round of negotiations until the outcome of the presidential election in the US is known. A second Trump presidency, however, does not necessarily rule out a nuclear deal. As Dr Pezeshkian consistently said in the televised debates: “Trump is a businessman. We can do business with him.”

Such a potential deal, however, must necessarily also satisfy the economic interests of the IRGC, which will demand a price in return for postponing its nuclear ambitions.

In the course of the televised debates, Dr Pezeshkian also praised the improvement of Iran’s relations with its Arab neighbours, in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE, under the late president Ebrahim Raisi. More controversially, Dr Pezeshkian consistently raised the issue of the mob attack on the Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran in 2016. As with the JCPOA, he accused opponents of Mr Rouhani of orchestrating the attacks so that the then president would lose face. The result, however, was Iran’s diplomatic isolation in the Arab world, Dr Pezeshkian said repeatedly.

A funeral of two Hezbollah fighters in a southern Lebanese village near the border with northern Israel last month. An all-out Lebanon-Israel war could draw Iran in, which could then spiral into a regional conflict. AFP
A funeral of two Hezbollah fighters in a southern Lebanese village near the border with northern Israel last month. An all-out Lebanon-Israel war could draw Iran in, which could then spiral into a regional conflict. AFP

The President-elect is clearly committed to continuing the path of detente with Arab neighbours, but as with the JCPOA, he cannot act independently of the IRGC-dominated Supreme National Security Council, and without final approval from Mr Khamenei.

Iran’s policies are also likely to be shaped by the nature of its relations with Israel and the US. Should the terrible war in Gaza spread to Lebanon, and should Iran come to the aid of its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, Washington may be entangled in a direct confrontation with Tehran. In the face of such a formidable adversary, might the IRGC take retaliatory action against the Arab neighbours?

In the past, the Iranian regime and its allies targeted international shipping and oil installations in retaliation against the erstwhile Trump administration’s expressed wish to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Despite Dr Pezeshkian’s positive signals, resuming such a policy is a distinct possibility in the case of an Iran-US military confrontation.

In sum, Dr Pezeshkian appears committed to reaching a negotiated solution to the nuclear crisis and engaging in constructive co-operation with the Arab states. He is also likely to bring capable diplomats back into government to enforce his policies.

However, Iran’s behaviour may change depending on the state of its relations with Israel and the US. Despite the President-elect’s best intentions, he may find himself entangled in the same foreign policy crises as his predecessors.

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Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

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Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive

Ali Azeem, business leader

Tony Booth, professor of education

Lord Browne, former BP chief executive

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Dr Mark Mann, scientist

Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner

Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister

Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster

 

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Ruwais timeline

1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established

1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants

1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed

1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.  

1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex

2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea

2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd

2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens

2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies

2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export

2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.

2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery 

2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital

2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13

Source: The National

Updated: July 17, 2024, 11:36 AM`