When the tectonic plates shift in geopolitics, sometimes it’s rapid and noticeable: think how swiftly the communist regimes in Eastern Europe fell in 1989 and 1990 with the ending of the Cold War. At other times, it’s slower but still inexorable.
We are seeing another, equally dramatic, shift occurring now – the decline of the old world order, and the emergence of the new – illustrated by a series of recent events.
The joint communique issued at the end of the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland last weekend was signed by 78 countries, but just as much attention was paid to those attending that didn’t do so. Those “key global powers” included Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and the UAE.
I discussed why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has failed to gain greater traction with many Global South countries with one of South-East Asia’s top security officials last week. “The West thinks its problems are the world’s, but the world’s problems are not theirs,” he told me.
The official also pointed to the answer a former Indonesian foreign minister had given at a private meeting recently, when asked why Jakarta wasn’t more supportive of Ukraine. “Well,” he began, “it’s a long way away.”
It’s not that people in the region don’t care; but they don’t see any reason to give in to American or European pressure to take sides in a dispute in another continent that they view as none of their business.
A majority of countries in South-East Asia are more interested in the prospect of joining the Brics group – named after Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – which now has nine members, including the UAE and Egypt, and which aims to promote a more multipolar world order.
Is this the way US hegemony ends, to paraphrase TS Eliot, not with a bang, but a long drawn-out whimper?
The latest to announce their intention to join was Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. “We have made our policy clear and we have made our decision. We will start the formal procedures soon. As far as the Global South is concerned, we are fully supportive,” he said in an interview on Sunday. About 40 countries want to follow suit, according to officials in Russia, the current Brics chair.
Robert O’Brien, who served as former US president Donald Trump’s national security adviser, has just published an essay in which he recommends that the US decouple from China and consider sending the entire Marine Corps to the Asia-Pacific. But Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his New Zealand counterpart, Christopher Luxon, appear not to have read it – going by the friendly smiles they displayed during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visits to their countries in the past few days.
New agreements on trade and the environment were signed in New Zealand, while Mr Li said relations with Australia were “back on track” and Mr Albanese hailed “constructive” talks and a “revitalised” bilateral engagement.
Contrast this with the recent G7 summit in Italy, where all the leaders – bar one – of what are supposed to be the developed world’s most important countries are facing mammoth challenges domestically.
The host, Giorgia Meloni, was the only western leader present riding high, after her party topped Italy’s polls in the European Parliament elections this month. Ms Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are variously described as “far right”, or more politely, “arch-conservative”. Are theirs the values that the West now regards as universal and wishes to export to the rest of the world?
This was presumably not what US President Joe Biden had in mind when he convened his “Summits for Democracy”. But we haven’t heard much about them recently, which is unsurprising considering how US support for Israel in Gaza has polarised world opinion and the chorus of those declaring an end to American exceptionalism continues to swell.
From now on, whoever wins the next US presidential election, wrote one Bloomberg contributor this week, America will “behave as just another Great Power using its awe-inspiring might to serve a narrow self-interest”.
This is a highly significant change in itself. Still more remarkable was an essay published on Tuesday by the highly respected Scottish-American historian Niall Ferguson. Mr Ferguson has been describing the relationship between America and China as “Cold War II” since 2018. Naturally, he wants the US to triumph, just as it did over the Soviet Union in 1989.
“But it only recently struck me that in this new Cold War, we – and not the Chinese – might be the Soviets,” he wrote.
He singles out what he sees as an excessive budget deficit, too much government intervention in the economy, “a military that is simultaneously expensive and unequal to the tasks it confronts”, “gerontocratic leadership”, which he says was one of the “hallmarks of late Soviet leadership”, “total public cynicism about nearly all institutions”, mass deaths from addiction and a healthcare system that has become bloated and dysfunctional “even as the political and cultural elite double down on a bizarre ideology that no one really believes in”, and “a population that no longer regards patriotism, religion, having children, or community involvement as important”.
“Are we the Soviets?” he concludes. “Look around you.”
Is this the way US hegemony ends, to paraphrase TS Eliot, not with a bang, but a long drawn-out whimper? It’s interesting to note that Mr Ferguson, a conservative, uses the term “degenerate” to diagnose America’s condition, a word just as likely to spring from the lips of former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev as an accusation against the West in general.
I’m not going to make any moral judgement. But if Mr Ferguson and his allies don’t want the US – or the West more broadly – to lose “Cold War II”, they should reflect that there’s still time to chart a new course.
They could reject that very framing, and instead of railing at their loss of influence they could work with Brics and the Global South. Just because the old order they dominated is palpably fading, as recent events show, that doesn’t mean they can’t be part of the new emerging one.
The world lost a chance to unite after the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc. As the tectonic plates shift once more, let’s try not to lose another.
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Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
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Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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THE BIO
Age: 33
Favourite quote: “If you’re going through hell, keep going” Winston Churchill
Favourite breed of dog: All of them. I can’t possibly pick a favourite.
Favourite place in the UAE: The Stray Dogs Centre in Umm Al Quwain. It sounds predictable, but it honestly is my favourite place to spend time. Surrounded by hundreds of dogs that love you - what could possibly be better than that?
Favourite colour: All the colours that dogs come in
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
PROFILE BOX:
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Rami Salman, Rishav Jalan, Ayush Chordia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Technology, Sales, Voice, Artificial Intelligence
Size: (employees/revenue) 10/ 100,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($800,000)
Investors: Eight first-round investors including, Beco Capital, 500 Startups, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Hala Fadel, Odin Financial Services, Dubai Angel Investors, Womena, Arzan VC
The biog
Hobby: Playing piano and drawing patterns
Best book: Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins
Food of choice: Sushi
Favourite colour: Orange
The years Ramadan fell in May
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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How to vote in the UAE
1) Download your ballot https://www.fvap.gov/
2) Take it to the US Embassy
3) Deadline is October 15
4) The embassy will ensure all ballots reach the US in time for the November 3 poll
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RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Lady Parma, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Tabernas, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m
Winner: Night Castle, Connor Beasley, Satish Seemar.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Mutawakked, Szczepan Mazur, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner: Tafaakhor, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner: Cranesbill, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.
The car
Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
Parks and accommodation
For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.
South Africa squad
: Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wkt), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Chris Morris, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Duanne Olivier, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
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In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
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RESULTS
2.15pm Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner Shawall, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Majed Al Jahouri (trainer)
2.45pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Anna Bella Aa, Fabrice Veron, Abdelkhir Adam
3.15pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner AF Thayer, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
3.45pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner Taajer, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
4.15pm The Ruler of Sharjah Cup – Prestige (PA) Dh250,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner Jawaal, Jim Crowley, Majed Al Jahouri
4.45pm Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner Maqaadeer, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
