Thomas Watkins is Washington bureau chief at The National
May 31, 2024
Donald Trump is a convicted felon. A jury of his peers found the Republican presidential candidate guilty of falsifying business records in a sordid case dating back to a one-night stand he maintains he didn't have with an adult film star in 2006.
The verdict came as something of a shock. Pundits had been speculating for weeks that a mistrial was likely because of some of the convoluted testimony from the government's star witness, Michael Cohen, a convicted perjurer.
But in the end, it only took the jurors, at least one of whom was presumed to be a Trump supporter, less than 12 hours to reach a verdict in a case the former president had repeatedly claimed was worthless and never should have been brought.
The speed of the verdict in New York appeared to blindside “Teflon Don”, who seemed tired and crestfallen as he lumbered from the courtroom to decry his 34 felonies and the entire case against him as “rigged” by the Biden administration and a “disgrace”.
“The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people,” Trump told reporters. “I'm a very innocent man.”
He's right. Election Day is the only decision of consequence for Trump, and there's every chance his conviction will help him with his true believers, who take at face value his claims that all the criminal cases against him are politically motivated.
After all, it didn't matter that Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, or that he was found liable of sexual assault and defamation, or that the Trump Organisation was convicted in a criminal fraud scheme.
Surely, therefore, it won't matter that Trump must forever carry the mantle of being the first US president to be convicted of a felony.
But if we delve a little deeper, it's not quite so simple.
An ABC/Ipsos poll this month found that if Trump were to be convicted of a felony in this case, 80 per cent of his supporters would vote for him anyway.
That, however, leaves 16 per cent who said they would reconsider their support, and 4 per cent who said they would withdraw it.
Though Trump is pulling ahead of President Joe Biden in nationwide polls, a potential loss of support from 20 per cent of Republicans would see the deeply unpopular, 81-year-old Democrat get a second term despite his disastrously inept campaign.
The election will probably be determined by a few thousand votes in a few swing states, so even a small movement of voters could have an impact.
At least one Trump supporter appears to have looked at the evidence against him and decided he should be convicted: the juror who said he gets his news from Fox and Trump-owned Truth Social platform, a febrile echo chamber of far-right extremism and cultlike homages to the former president.
Trump says the case is far from over and he will almost certainly appeal, but for now at least he bears the stain of being the first former or sitting president to be convicted of a crime, surpassing even Richard Nixon's ignominy.
Perhaps Trump will have better luck at one of his upcoming trials on more serious charges of election interference and mishandling classified documents, though the Republican-skewed judiciary may quash these cases before Trump stands trial.
As has been oft noted, there's almost literally nothing Trump can do wrong in the eyes of his ardent Maga (Make America Great Again) supporters.
To refresh memories of just a few outrages that only boosted his standing among his fans: he said some of the racists at a white nationalist rally were “very fine people” in 2017, he called US troops and service members killed in the Second World War and Vietnam “suckers” and “losers” and he called for (and largely implemented) the “total and complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the US.
Trump famously said it best in 2016, when he proclaimed: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK.”
On November 5, Americans will decide whether they agree with him.
Former US president and Republican candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak to the press after he was convicted in his criminal trial in New York. AFP
Trump stands surrounded by his legal team as he exits the courtroom. AFP
A television screen shows the news of the verdict in Trump's criminal trial. Reuters
A man holds a placard outside Manhattan criminal court following the verdict. Reuters
A demonstrator holds a placard outside the court following the verdict. Reuters
Trump alongside his lawyer Todd Blanche ahead of jury deliberations during his criminal trial for allegedly covering up hush-money payments. AFP
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar was one of many politicians who attended the New York trial to show support for Trump. EPA
A court sketch of Robert Costello being cross-examined by prosecutor Susan Hoffinger before Judge Juan Merchan. Reuters
A court sketch of Trump yawning during the trial. Media outlets reported the former president has often been seen keeping his eyes closed during proceedings. Reuters
Michael Cohen, former lawyer and fixer for Trump, testified against the former president. Reuters
Stormy Daniels, the adult film star who allegedly received a hush-money payment from the Trump campaign in 2016, leaves court. AFP
A sketch shows jurors taking notes as Ms Daniels testifies on May 7. Elizabeth Williams / AP
Judge Juan Merchan is presiding over Trump's case. AP
Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr and the former president's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, arrive at the court. Reuters
Trump supporters gather near the courthouse in New York. Getty Images / AFP
Trump supporters post signs as they gather near the courthouse during the trial. Getty Images / AFP
Members of the media wait in front of the courthouse in Manhattan. Getty Images / AFP
Trump speaks during a rally in the South Bronx in New York during a day off from his trial. Getty Images / AFP
Trump awaits the start of his trial earlier in the week in New York. AP
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Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
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What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor?
Should I be euphoric?
No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.
So what happened?
It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.
"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."
Should I buy? Should I sell?
Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.
"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.
All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.
Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.
Will the rally last?
No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.
"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."
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