Thomas Watkins is Washington bureau chief at The National
May 31, 2024
Donald Trump is a convicted felon. A jury of his peers found the Republican presidential candidate guilty of falsifying business records in a sordid case dating back to a one-night stand he maintains he didn't have with an adult film star in 2006.
The verdict came as something of a shock. Pundits had been speculating for weeks that a mistrial was likely because of some of the convoluted testimony from the government's star witness, Michael Cohen, a convicted perjurer.
But in the end, it only took the jurors, at least one of whom was presumed to be a Trump supporter, less than 12 hours to reach a verdict in a case the former president had repeatedly claimed was worthless and never should have been brought.
The speed of the verdict in New York appeared to blindside “Teflon Don”, who seemed tired and crestfallen as he lumbered from the courtroom to decry his 34 felonies and the entire case against him as “rigged” by the Biden administration and a “disgrace”.
“The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people,” Trump told reporters. “I'm a very innocent man.”
He's right. Election Day is the only decision of consequence for Trump, and there's every chance his conviction will help him with his true believers, who take at face value his claims that all the criminal cases against him are politically motivated.
After all, it didn't matter that Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, or that he was found liable of sexual assault and defamation, or that the Trump Organisation was convicted in a criminal fraud scheme.
Surely, therefore, it won't matter that Trump must forever carry the mantle of being the first US president to be convicted of a felony.
But if we delve a little deeper, it's not quite so simple.
An ABC/Ipsos poll this month found that if Trump were to be convicted of a felony in this case, 80 per cent of his supporters would vote for him anyway.
That, however, leaves 16 per cent who said they would reconsider their support, and 4 per cent who said they would withdraw it.
Though Trump is pulling ahead of President Joe Biden in nationwide polls, a potential loss of support from 20 per cent of Republicans would see the deeply unpopular, 81-year-old Democrat get a second term despite his disastrously inept campaign.
The election will probably be determined by a few thousand votes in a few swing states, so even a small movement of voters could have an impact.
At least one Trump supporter appears to have looked at the evidence against him and decided he should be convicted: the juror who said he gets his news from Fox and Trump-owned Truth Social platform, a febrile echo chamber of far-right extremism and cultlike homages to the former president.
Trump says the case is far from over and he will almost certainly appeal, but for now at least he bears the stain of being the first former or sitting president to be convicted of a crime, surpassing even Richard Nixon's ignominy.
Perhaps Trump will have better luck at one of his upcoming trials on more serious charges of election interference and mishandling classified documents, though the Republican-skewed judiciary may quash these cases before Trump stands trial.
As has been oft noted, there's almost literally nothing Trump can do wrong in the eyes of his ardent Maga (Make America Great Again) supporters.
To refresh memories of just a few outrages that only boosted his standing among his fans: he said some of the racists at a white nationalist rally were “very fine people” in 2017, he called US troops and service members killed in the Second World War and Vietnam “suckers” and “losers” and he called for (and largely implemented) the “total and complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the US.
Trump famously said it best in 2016, when he proclaimed: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK.”
On November 5, Americans will decide whether they agree with him.
Former US president and Republican candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak to the press after he was convicted in his criminal trial in New York. AFP
Trump stands surrounded by his legal team as he exits the courtroom. AFP
A television screen shows the news of the verdict in Trump's criminal trial. Reuters
A man holds a placard outside Manhattan criminal court following the verdict. Reuters
A demonstrator holds a placard outside the court following the verdict. Reuters
Trump alongside his lawyer Todd Blanche ahead of jury deliberations during his criminal trial for allegedly covering up hush-money payments. AFP
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar was one of many politicians who attended the New York trial to show support for Trump. EPA
A court sketch of Robert Costello being cross-examined by prosecutor Susan Hoffinger before Judge Juan Merchan. Reuters
A court sketch of Trump yawning during the trial. Media outlets reported the former president has often been seen keeping his eyes closed during proceedings. Reuters
Michael Cohen, former lawyer and fixer for Trump, testified against the former president. Reuters
Stormy Daniels, the adult film star who allegedly received a hush-money payment from the Trump campaign in 2016, leaves court. AFP
A sketch shows jurors taking notes as Ms Daniels testifies on May 7. Elizabeth Williams / AP
Judge Juan Merchan is presiding over Trump's case. AP
Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr and the former president's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, arrive at the court. Reuters
Trump supporters gather near the courthouse in New York. Getty Images / AFP
Trump supporters post signs as they gather near the courthouse during the trial. Getty Images / AFP
Members of the media wait in front of the courthouse in Manhattan. Getty Images / AFP
Trump speaks during a rally in the South Bronx in New York during a day off from his trial. Getty Images / AFP
Trump awaits the start of his trial earlier in the week in New York. AP
PFA Team of the Year: David de Gea, Kyle Walker, Jan Vertonghen, Nicolas Otamendi, Marcos Alonso, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, Sergio Aguero
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book:I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11 What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time. TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
The biog
Marital status: Separated with two young daughters
Education: Master's degree from American Univeristy of Cairo
Favourite book: That Is How They Defeat Despair by Salwa Aladian
Favourite Motto: Their happiness is your happiness
Goal: For Nefsy to become his legacy long after he is gon
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The specs
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England v South Africa schedule:
First Test: At Lord's, England won by 219 runs
Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
