The death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash this month shocked the nation. But this shock has quickly given way to an intense struggle between various political factions vying for the second-most powerful job in the country, after that of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
With an election to pick Mr Raisi’s successor scheduled for June 28, one question on the minds of many Iran observers is whether a wide array of candidates will be allowed to run this time.
On paper, the departed president’s shoes shouldn’t be so hard to fill. The cleric is understood to have been chosen because he lacked political independence and would toe the line of Mr Khamenei and his fellow hardliners in the regime. Surely, another figurehead could easily take his place. But Iran has a way of surprising its observers.
Mr Raisi was effectively handed the presidency in 2021 after his most formidable rivals were disqualified by the Guardian Council, the body of clerics and jurists appointed by Mr Khamenei and one of whose mandates is to supervise elections. The 2021 vote marked the first time, since 1997, that the result was mostly pre-ordained.
Theoretically, the Guardian Council could repeat what it did three years ago and disqualify potential reformist and centrist candidates in the upcoming election, too. This could then pave the way for the only candidate in the race so far: former national security adviser Saeed Jalili, a notorious hardliner who wielded considerable influence in the Raisi administration.
But it isn’t so straightforward.
If Mr Raisi was considered a pushover, Mr Jalili is known for his rigidity. It is a quality that has made him enemies even within conservative circles, to the extent that there were concerns about the outsized role of some of his allies in the Raisi administration.
Mr Jalili’s rigidity was most on display during his tenure as national security adviser and chief nuclear negotiator from 2007 to 2013.
Raisi’s success was built around the impression that he was an unimpressive yet experienced bureaucrat, who posed no political challenge to the Supreme Leader
During this period, Iran’s economy suffered after being sanctioned by the UN and the West over its nuclear programme. Yet Mr Jalili seemed in no rush to engage with western powers to have some of these sanctions lifted. And when he did, he largely lectured officials sitting across the table, instead of actually negotiating with them.
Mr Jalili’s poor track record cost him his presidential aspirations in the 2013 election, with his most vicious critics being fellow conservative candidates. Even today, there is little love lost between him and his political bedfellows.
In a recently leaked audio file, a leading hardline MP is heard claiming that Qassem Suleimani, the assassinated commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, had said that if Mr Jalili were elected president, he would resign. Suleimani appeared to have been objecting to Mr Jalili’s desire for control.
It’s unsurprising, therefore, that there is already an “Anybody but Jalili” campaign under way in 2024. According to the London-based outlet IranWire, several leading regime officials have been co-ordinating their efforts to torpedo Mr Jalili’s electoral chances.
But if such a campaign succeeds, then who else has a shot at the presidency?
A number of conservatives could throw their hats in the ring, notably Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is said to be among those seeking to stop Mr Jalili from winning.
Mr Qalibaf, who has long harboured presidential ambitions despite three unsuccessful attempts, is expected to have the IRGC’s backing as a former commander of its air force. But he is considered a technocrat with no ideological moorings and who has openly spoken of Reza Pahlavi – the Shah who founded the dynasty deposed in the 1979 revolution – as a role model. Mr Khamenei is unlikely to want to hand over power to a military officer with a base of his own.
Mr Qalibaf’s chances of winning are undermined by allegations of corruption. A cross section of Iranian society will also remember his role in the suppression of protesters as the national police chief in the early 2000s.
Moreover, his re-election as Speaker, despite a poor showing in this year’s parliamentary election, could quite possibly mean that he prefers to keep his job without dealing with all the scrutiny that will inevitably accompany another presidential campaign.
Other potential candidates include another old IRGC hand, Parviz Fattah, who heads a large semi-public agency under Mr Khamenei’s supervision. But he faces the same problem as Mr Qalibaf: Mr Khamenei might view his military-industrial background with wariness.
It’s important to note here that Mr Raisi’s success was built around the impression that he was an unimpressive yet experienced bureaucrat, who posed no political challenge to the Supreme Leader. And so, while there are other possible hardline contenders whose names are being discussed, Mr Khamenei is unlikely to favour most of them.
This could, then, force the Guardian Council to open the doors to centrist or reformist candidates. Mr Khamenei might even do what he did in 2013: allow moderately conservative figures with technocratic credentials to run. One such candidate was Hassan Rouhani, who went on to complete two terms as president.
Were Mr Khamenei to go down that road, one of the names doing the rounds is that of Ali Larijani.
In addition to being from an influential clerical family, Mr Larijani has served as the head of the state broadcaster and as speaker of Parliament. He is no reformist, but he isn’t a hardliner either. His full-throated backing of Mr Rouhani’s presidency has won him plenty of latent support among centrists and reformists.
He is a cerebral figure, armed with a PhD in philosophy from the University of Tehran. But he is also a former IRGC official, which might come in handy if he decides to run.
There are a number of centrists, like Mr Larijani, who could consider running, if they are allowed to. This is particularly so, if the reform-minded members of Iran’s polity coalesce behind any one of them instead of supporting a candidate from their own ideological space.
Rumours inevitably continue to swirl about on who these candidates could be, but we won’t have to wait long for the dust to settle. Aspirants will begin registering to run beginning today, with the Guardian Council set to announce a final list of candidates on June 11.
This shortlist will determine the dynamics of the race and provide clues to another key question on the minds of Iran observers: will large portions of the electorate boycott the vote as they did in 2020, 2021 and 2024 – or will there be a significantly bigger turnout this time? Watch this space.
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
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GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
FA Cup fifth round
Chelsea v Manchester United, Monday, 11.30pm (UAE), BeIN Sports
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
The Old Slave and the Mastiff
Patrick Chamoiseau
Translated from the French and Creole by Linda Coverdale
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')
Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Kathryn Hawkes of House of Hawkes on being a good guest (because we’ve all had bad ones)
- Arrive with a thank you gift, or make sure you have one for your host by the time you leave.
- Offer to buy groceries, cook them a meal or take your hosts out for dinner.
- Help out around the house.
- Entertain yourself so that your hosts don’t feel that they constantly need to.
- Leave no trace of your stay – if you’ve borrowed a book, return it to where you found it.
- Offer to strip the bed before you go.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
More on Quran memorisation:
World%20Cup%202023%20ticket%20sales
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Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.4-litre%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E470bhp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E637Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh375%2C900%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MO
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Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
