What a difference a month makes. When India’s general election got under way on April 19, the popular assumption was that the Bharatiya Janata Party was primed for a third consecutive term in office.
The dominant narrative was that the BJP’s stated target of winning 400 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, as the lower house of Parliament is called, was more than a slogan. Having won 282 and 303 seats in the 2014 and 2019 general elections respectively, Mission 400, as it was called, was daunting but quite possible.
However, with the election having now crossed the halfway mark, the question on the minds of many analysts has changed from “what will the BJP’s margin of victory be?” to “could the BJP actually lose?” This has prompted heated discussions and sweeping predictions on social media as well as some volatility in the stock markets.
It appears the aura of invincibility that once enveloped the governing party has faded in this election, but does that mean the BJP will finish second? Even if nothing can be taken for granted in a democracy, few serious students of politics would go so far as to suggest such an outcome.
That said, the BJP is facing serious headwinds that merit consideration.
One is the lower-than-anticipated turnout in the first four phases of voting. At 66.45 per cent, it is at least two percentage points lower than in 2019’s contest. This may not sound like much, but it translates to a few million fewer votes cast this time around. Lower turnouts usually bode well for governing parties as it suggests a lack of enthusiasm for removing the incumbent. However, BJP insiders are clearly worried that this is a trend that has taken root in several of their strongholds across northern and western India.
Rising temperatures at this time of year have reportedly been another factor behind this low turnout. That said, the weather has played a role in voter turnout since 2004, which was the year India began to hold general elections during the summer months. Another credible theory being discussed is voter apathy. This usually comes into play when the electorate is either unhappy about the leadership contest driving the election or unexcited by it.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still hugely popular, but he has been in power for a full decade – a period during which the average Indian has faced myriad economic challenges, ranging from price rises to unemployment. Yet in the eyes of many, the lack of a credible alternative to Mr Modi has been frustrating.
The BJP won’t admit this, but its own election campaign could partly be responsible for some of this apathy. Mission 400, according to some observers, appears to have lulled a sizable chunk of the party’s traditional voters into staying home on the assumption that the result is a foregone conclusion. But to take this proposition further, is it possible that the campaign has scared many swing voters into backing the opposition?
The “India” alliance, a group of 26 parties with the Congress at its core, has fumbled along the way ever since it came together last summer. However, one of its narratives – that has found traction among large sections of the electorate – is that the BJP would change the country’s constitution if it secured a supermajority.
This new constitution, according to Ashutosh, a prominent journalist and political activist, would be framed by those who “believe that affirmative action like reservations will be removed from the constitution if the BJP is back”. With most of India’s population belonging to marginalised sections of society, including “lower caste” and tribal groups, opposition leaders have been driving home this point, with many of them seen holding a copy of the constitution while doing so.
It appears the aura of invincibility that once enveloped the governing party has faded in this election, but does that mean the BJP will finish second?
One of the primary reasons the BJP won big in the previous two general elections was that it found a national theme – such as the economy in 2014 and national security in 2019 – to sway even non-traditional voters, with Mr Modi featuring strongly in its programmes. This year, however, there has not been an overarching selling point for the BJP. In this absence, the India alliance has managed to localise the election, drawing voters’ attention to local candidates and issues, thereby diminishing Mr Modi’s prominence.
All this has forced the BJP to change tack. Instead of making the election a referendum on its own performance over the past decade, it is attempting to shift the focus to the opposition parties by, among other things, targeting their manifestos. In its bid to consolidate the Hindu vote, some leaders in the party have made fiery speeches against the country’s Muslim population. Police in the state of Karnataka opened a case against senior BJP leaders over a social media post that opposition leaders said “demonises Muslims”.
A recurring theme of some of this content is that the India alliance would create policies favouring religious minorities at the expense of the majority. Whether such tactics serve the BJP well is open to question, but it is amply clear that there is concern among its top ranks. And yet those who believe that defeat could be staring the party in the face should consider some hard numbers.
The opposition’s success in this year’s election rests on its ability to breach the BJP’s strongholds, especially in the north and west of India. What makes these constituencies particularly difficult to win is that in 2019, the BJP secured more than 50 per cent of the vote in more than 200 of them.
In other words, the India alliance has a lot of ground to cover for it to win any of these seats, without which it cannot come to power. It is also important to remember that 2019 was not a one-off success for the BJP; it was an improvement on its performance in 2014.
For the India alliance to win, then, it’s not enough for it to slow the BJP’s momentum, it must turn the tables in its favour. For this to happen, there needs to be significant pessimism about the government among the people. Whether this is the case right now is debatable.
None of this is to suggest that the opposition has zero chances of forming the next government. The challenge is not for it to win more seats than the BJP. Rather, it is whether it can limit Mr Modi’s party to fewer than the 272 seats required to form a government on its own.
Depending on how much the BJP’s seat share drops below 272 – if it does at all – the India alliance could have a chance to stake its claim to power by drawing in parties outside its coalition, including those currently allied with the BJP. It is this possibility, however faint it seems right now, that will give BJP strategists sleepless nights until June 4.
Day 1, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Sadeera Samarawickrama set pulses racing with his strokeplay on his introduction to Test cricket. It reached a feverish peak when he stepped down the wicket and launched Yasir Shah, who many regard as the world’s leading spinner, back over his head for six. No matter that he was out soon after: it felt as though the future had arrived.
Stat of the day - 5 The last time Sri Lanka played a Test in Dubai – they won here in 2013 – they had four players in their XI who were known as wicketkeepers. This time they have gone one better. Each of Dinesh Chandimal, Kaushal Silva, Samarawickrama, Kusal Mendis, and Niroshan Dickwella – the nominated gloveman here – can keep wicket.
The verdict Sri Lanka want to make history by becoming the first team to beat Pakistan in a full Test series in the UAE. They could not have made a better start, first by winning the toss, then by scoring freely on an easy-paced pitch. The fact Yasir Shah found some turn on Day 1, too, will have interested their own spin bowlers.
MATCH INFO
New Zealand 176-8 (20 ovs)
England 155 (19.5 ovs)
New Zealand win by 21 runs
START-UPS%20IN%20BATCH%204%20OF%20SANABIL%20500'S%20ACCELERATOR%20PROGRAMME
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The biog
Title: General Practitioner with a speciality in cardiology
Previous jobs: Worked in well-known hospitals Jaslok and Breach Candy in Mumbai, India
Education: Medical degree from the Government Medical College in Nagpur
How it all began: opened his first clinic in Ajman in 1993
Family: a 90-year-old mother, wife and two daughters
Remembers a time when medicines from India were purchased per kilo
Tickets
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
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Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Second Test, Day 2:
South Africa 335 & 75/1 (22.0 ov)
England 205
South Africa lead by 205 runs with 9 wickets remaining
Scoreline
Swansea 2
Grimes 20' (pen), Celina, 29'
Man City 3
Silva 69', Nordfeldt 78' (og), Aguero 88'
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
How they line up for Sunday's Australian Grand Prix
1 Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes
2 Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari
3 Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari
4 Max Verstappen, Red Bull
5 Kevin Magnussen, Haas
6 Romain Grosjean, Haas
7 Nico Hulkenberg, Renault
*8 Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull
9 Carlos Sainz, Renault
10 Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes
11 Fernando Alonso, McLaren
12 Stoffel Vandoorne, McLaren
13 Sergio Perez, Force India
14 Lance Stroll, Williams
15 Esteban Ocon, Force India
16 Brendon Hartley, Toro Rosso
17 Marcus Ericsson, Sauber
18 Charles Leclerc, Sauber
19 Sergey Sirotkin, Williams
20 Pierre Gasly, Toro Rosso
* Daniel Ricciardo qualified fifth but had a three-place grid penalty for speeding in red flag conditions during practice
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test Thursday-Monday at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope
Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph
Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5