This year the US and India are both holding national elections, the outcomes of which will shape the trajectory of relations between the two nations for at least half a decade. Barring a surprise, victory appears likely for the governing Bharatiya Janata Party in the Indian general election, while the outcome of the US presidential race is a toss-up.
Voters in both countries are choosing more than just a leader or party; they are also voting between markedly different styles of interaction with the rest of the world. But just how different would the relationship between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden be from the one between Mr Modi and Mr Biden’s primary challenger, Donald Trump? Mr Modi has worked with both presidents, and Indo-American relations have been strengthened under both administrations. However, the trends suggest that while the points of convergence between the two governments in both cases will probably be similar, the points of friction will differ significantly.
This is important, given the gradual shift in the centre of gravity of the relationship between the two countries.
For more than a decade, the force driving increased Indo-American co-operation was a shared concern about China’s increasing strength and assertiveness. But now India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world, while China is seen by some countries as an increasingly risky investment destination. As a result, Wall Street is making big bets on India, viewing it as an exciting new frontier. New Delhi is keen to facilitate this, given its goal to become the world’s third-largest economy before the end of the decade.
In other words, the business and financial sectors in both countries are counting on each other to generate the growth and development they need. Shifting the driver from government to the private sector means that the relationship is likely to be less sensitive to who is in power in Washington and New Delhi. This growing economic interdependence is also constructive because it frees the relationship from a reliance on shared reactions to third parties such as Beijing.
The Indo-American strategic partnership is growing beyond a shared suspicion of China
Secondly, the strategic partnership is growing beyond a shared suspicion of China.
Both countries depend on security in the Indian Ocean region. But with neither power able to manage the challenges – ranging from piracy to disaster relief, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, extremism and cybersecurity – on its own, they have increasingly come to rely on each other. India’s growing use of American weapons systems is also creating its own dynamic, deepening and broadening contact between the two militaries, while increasing interoperability.
These avenues have managed to offset some areas of difference, such as India’s energy relationship with Russia and its official position of neutrality on the Ukraine war.
As noted earlier, however, there are also likely to be serious differences during a second Trump or Biden term, but these differences will be specific to the ideological commitments of the two contenders.
For Mr Trump, the sticking point will undoubtedly be trade. Both he and Mr Modi are promising to revive their countries’ manufacturing sectors to bring economic security to their working-class masses. The difference, though, is that Mr Modi is counting on doing it through an increase in exports (that is, free trade), while Mr Trump has a strong preference for protectionism.
The Indo-US trade deal foundered on these rocks during Mr Trump’s first term. And while the Biden administration has entered into deals with New Delhi, Mr Trump has shown his willingness to walk away from agreements signed by his predecessors. Some of the progress made, therefore, could very well be undone, without any guarantees of success in the renegotiation process.
More Indian firms than ever are looking to the US as a source of technology and customers, not just investment. A second Trump term would probably slow the pace of India’s integration into US supply chains. This would be an enormous opportunity cost for India in particular.
Another sticking point in a second Trump term is likely to be migration. The former president is in favour of reducing all immigration to the US, including highly skilled workers. This is something that will especially affect India with its large reservoir of university graduates and sizeable first-generation diaspora. Senior figures within the Trump circle have even publicly expressed concerns about the number of Indian-born chief executives, particularly in the tech sector.
Given that India’s most serious unemployment problem is among university-educated urban youth, curbs on foreign recruitment could have economic ramifications. It is also likely to have an adverse impact on US favourability in Indian public opinion, which in turn could pose problems for New Delhi’s security policy alignment with Washington.
On the other hand, a second Biden administration could experience increased frictions with a third Modi term over what can broadly be classed as “values”. Although Mr Modi is enormously popular in large parts of India, his governance style has polarised opinion in the country on a range of issues, from neoliberal economic reforms to crackdowns on opposition parties to overt religiosity in the public sphere.
These are issues that greatly trouble the progressive wing of Mr Biden’s Democratic Party, as well as liberal American institutions. Although the Biden administration, like the Modi government, has worked hard to insulate the strategic relationship from some of the wedge issues, the fundamental difference in ideological perceptions between the two governing parties’ voter bases will be hard to avoid. Any criticism of New Delhi will be seen by Modi supporters as an affront both to their leader and to their country.
In contrast, a second Trump administration is unlikely to express any opinion at all on cultural and social issues, unless it involves India’s evangelical Christian communities.
Given these circumstances, America’s relationship with India could increasingly come to resemble its relationships with some of its allies and partners in the Middle East, wherein deep economic and security ties coexist with seemingly intractable political differences. This is a situation where a mix of personal relations and mutual strategic dependence forms the basis of a long-term, world-shaping partnership.
However, what the path towards such a partnership is going to look like is far from set right now – it isn’t something to be negotiated by diplomats at summits but, rather, by voters at the ballot box over successive elections.
WHAT%20MACRO%20FACTORS%20ARE%20IMPACTING%20META%20TECH%20MARKETS%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Looming%20global%20slowdown%20and%20recession%20in%20key%20economies%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Russia-Ukraine%20war%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Interest%20rate%20hikes%20and%20the%20rising%20cost%20of%20debt%20servicing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Oil%20price%20volatility%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Persisting%20inflationary%20pressures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shortage%20of%20labour%2Fskills%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20A%20resurgence%20of%20Covid%3F%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
PROVISIONAL FIXTURE LIST
Premier League
Wednesday, June 17 (Kick-offs uae times) Aston Villa v Sheffield United 9pm; Manchester City v Arsenal 11pm
Friday, June 19 Norwich v Southampton 9pm; Tottenham v Manchester United 11pm
Saturday, June 20 Watford v Leicester 3.30pm; Brighton v Arsenal 6pm; West Ham v Wolves 8.30pm; Bournemouth v Crystal Palace 10.45pm
Sunday, June 21 Newcastle v Sheffield United 2pm; Aston Villa v Chelsea 7.30pm; Everton v Liverpool 10pm
Monday, June 22 Manchester City v Burnley 11pm (Sky)
Tuesday, June 23 Southampton v Arsenal 9pm; Tottenham v West Ham 11.15pm
Wednesday, June 24 Manchester United v Sheffield United 9pm; Newcastle v Aston Villa 9pm; Norwich v Everton 9pm; Liverpool v Crystal Palace 11.15pm
Thursday, June 25 Burnley v Watford 9pm; Leicester v Brighton 9pm; Chelsea v Manchester City 11.15pm; Wolves v Bournemouth 11.15pm
Sunday June 28 Aston Villa vs Wolves 3pm; Watford vs Southampton 7.30pm
Monday June 29 Crystal Palace vs Burnley 11pm
Tuesday June 30 Brighton vs Manchester United 9pm; Sheffield United vs Tottenham 11.15pm
Wednesday July 1 Bournemouth vs Newcastle 9pm; Everton vs Leicester 9pm; West Ham vs Chelsea 11.15pm
Thursday July 2 Arsenal vs Norwich 9pm; Manchester City vs Liverpool 11.15pm
School counsellors on mental well-being
Schools counsellors in Abu Dhabi have put a number of provisions in place to help support pupils returning to the classroom next week.
Many children will resume in-person lessons for the first time in 10 months and parents previously raised concerns about the long-term effects of distance learning.
Schools leaders and counsellors said extra support will be offered to anyone that needs it. Additionally, heads of years will be on hand to offer advice or coping mechanisms to ease any concerns.
“Anxiety this time round has really spiralled, more so than from the first lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Priya Mitchell, counsellor at The British School Al Khubairat in Abu Dhabi.
“Some have got used to being at home don’t want to go back, while others are desperate to get back.
“We have seen an increase in depressive symptoms, especially with older pupils, and self-harm is starting younger.
“It is worrying and has taught us how important it is that we prioritise mental well-being.”
Ms Mitchell said she was liaising more with heads of year so they can support and offer advice to pupils if the demand is there.
The school will also carry out mental well-being checks so they can pick up on any behavioural patterns and put interventions in place to help pupils.
At Raha International School, the well-being team has provided parents with assessment surveys to see how they can support students at home to transition back to school.
“They have created a Well-being Resource Bank that parents have access to on information on various domains of mental health for students and families,” a team member said.
“Our pastoral team have been working with students to help ease the transition and reduce anxiety that [pupils] may experience after some have been nearly a year off campus.
"Special secondary tutorial classes have also focused on preparing students for their return; going over new guidelines, expectations and daily schedules.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier
UAE results
Beat China by 16 runs
Lost to Thailand by 10 wickets
Beat Nepal by five runs
Beat Hong Kong by eight wickets
Beat Malaysia by 34 runs
Standings (P, W, l, NR, points)
1. Thailand 5 4 0 1 9
2. UAE 5 4 1 0 8
3. Nepal 5 2 1 2 6
4. Hong Kong 5 2 2 1 5
5. Malaysia 5 1 4 0 2
6. China 5 0 5 0 0
Final
Thailand v UAE, Monday, 7am
The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The years Ramadan fell in May
More coverage from the Future Forum
More on animal trafficking
More on animal trafficking
Zayed Sustainability Prize
