As Israel and Iran give each other some serious side-eye, regional geopolitical winds may be shifting in favour of a larger role for Turkey in this slowly metastasising Middle East war.
Start with the long-running Israel-Iran shadow conflict bursting into the open in recent weeks. Despite Tehran’s muted response to Israel’s latest strikes, negotiations may be required to avoid escalation, which could make Ankara’s friendly ties with Tehran invaluable.
Turkey already served as the key backchannel for Tehran and Washington as Iranian officials mulled retaliation options earlier this month. After Israel and its allies shot down nearly all of Iran’s 300 projectiles, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly thanked Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan for serving as a go-between – a significant show of US appreciation at a fraught regional moment.
Second, Doha may be ending its role as Hamas-Israel mediator after being criticised by some members of the US Congress for failed peace talks. “We have seen insults against our mediation and its exploitation for the sake of narrow political interests,” Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman said last week in Doha at a news conference with Mr Fidan.
Meanwhile, reports emerged on the weekend that Hamas leaders are being pressured to leave Qatar, alongside additional reports that Turkey is the leading relocation option.
Third, Ankara’s flurry of diplomatic activity suggests a clear desire for greater involvement. Mr Fidan’s Doha visit last week almost seemed a passing of the proverbial baton. He met the Qatari Prime Minister and with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, after which he laid out the group’s potential willingness to disband its armed wing and become a political party if a Palestinian state is agreed to along the 1967 borders.
If Erdogan were to put Palestinians on the road to their own state, he would secure himself an unimpeachable regional legacy
Mr Haniyeh then hopped over to Istanbul to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday.
Mr Erdogan also met Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry on Saturday, and on Monday flew to Baghdad and met Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who is close to Tehran. Also on Monday, amid reports that Mr Erdogan’s May 9 visit to Washington may be cancelled, US counter-terrorism ambassador Elizabeth Richard arrived in Ankara to meet top Turkish officials. There’s also the new Gaza aid flotilla, which is expected to set sail this week and should further boost Turkey’s profile in the Levant.
Lastly, a presidential decree issued this month laid out plans to reform Turkey’s Foreign Ministry with the creation of a mediation directorate. This might strike some as a desperate stab at regional relevance, but this is not an unfamiliar role for Ankara.
Turkey hosted peace talks between the Taliban, the US and the Afghan government in 2021, and for years worked with Russia, Iran and Qatar to achieve a political solution in Syria, though both of those efforts fell short.
Turkey has offered to mediate Egypt and Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam dispute, and of course, brokered two rounds of Russia-Ukraine talks in 2022: failed peace negotiations and a successful grain deal that probably helped stave off famine in Africa. “In a broken world,” I argued at the time, “unpalatable solutions are often our only recourse.”
Ankara now appears to have embarked on a public campaign to mediate: a senior Turkish official discussed the idea with The National; an Ankara-based affairs analyst addressed it in an Arab news outlet; and columnist Burhanettin Duran, head of the government-backed Seta think tank, wrote that he expects Mr Erdogan “to work more closely with world leaders to try and save the region from the Israeli-Iranian escalation”.
Is Ankara better positioned to mediate than Doha? Both are among the few countries that can ring top officials from Hamas, Iran, the US and Israel and expect an answer. Qatar is home to the region’s largest US military presence, but Turkey also hosts a sizable US troop contingent, as well as US nuclear weapons, at its Incirlik base.
Turkey also offers an element Qatar lacks: major involvement in Eastern Mediterranean energy. Ankara could present some sort of maritime energy concession to the allied trio of Israel, Egypt and Greece.
As a Nato member and EU-candidate country, Ankara is firmly ensconced in the western economic and security architecture. As a Hamas supporter and friend to Tehran, regional extremist groups tend to trust Turkey’s leadership.
This is a strength from the view of Iran and Hamas, but for western and Israeli eyes it may be the biggest strike against Turkey. Few states have been as critical of Israel in recent months. Mr Erdogan has repeatedly accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and in December said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is “worse than Hitler”.
Turkey recently banned a long list of exports to Israel, but Ankara maintains a free trade agreement and diplomatic ties with Israel and enables its oil trade with Azerbaijan. Still, Turkey’s Gaza stance has not gone unnoticed. On the weekend, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz posted a picture of Mr Erdogan and Mr Haniyeh on social media and wrote that Turkey’s leader “should be ashamed”.
Many observers responded similarly to a statement Mr Erdogan made last week. At an AKP parliamentary gathering, he made a stunning assertion, arguing that Hamas is the equivalent of the national resistance movement that won Turkey’s independence a century ago.
Why would Mr Erdogan compare the perpetrators of the horrific October 7 assault to Turkey’s revered founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk? To appeal to Turkish voters who are firmly pro-Palestinian, for one. But also, perhaps because he sees the opportunity before him.
Pressure is growing on US President Joe Biden and the Netanyahu government to find some way to halt the war and gain the release of the Israeli hostages. And much the way Ataturk secured his legacy by winning the war and founding the Turkish Republic, if Mr Erdogan were to help resolve this crisis and put Palestinians on the road to their own state, he would secure himself an unimpeachable and enduring regional legacy.
Getting there will likely require strategic brilliance, moral courage and dogged commitment to solving one of the world’s knottiest conundrums. Best of luck to Turkish diplomats, should they be handed the largely thankless task.
The five pillars of Islam
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYasmin%20Azad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESwift%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
The%20Afghan%20connection
%3Cp%3EThe%20influx%20of%20talented%20young%20Afghan%20players%20to%20UAE%20cricket%20could%20have%20a%20big%20impact%20on%20the%20fortunes%20of%20both%20countries.%20Here%20are%20three%20Emirates-based%20players%20to%20watch%20out%20for.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHassan%20Khan%20Eisakhil%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Nabi%20is%20still%20proving%20his%20worth%20at%20the%20top%20level%20but%20there%20is%20another%20reason%20he%20is%20raging%20against%20the%20idea%20of%20retirement.%20If%20the%20allrounder%20hangs%20on%20a%20little%20bit%20longer%2C%20he%20might%20be%20able%20to%20play%20in%20the%20same%20team%20as%20his%20son%2C%20Hassan%20Khan.%20The%20family%20live%20in%20Ajman%20and%20train%20in%20Sharjah.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMasood%20Gurbaz%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20opening%20batter%2C%20who%20trains%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Academy%2C%20is%20another%20player%20who%20is%20a%20part%20of%20a%20famous%20family.%20His%20brother%2C%20Rahmanullah%2C%20was%20an%20IPL%20winner%20with%20Kolkata%20Knight%20Riders%2C%20and%20opens%20the%20batting%20with%20distinction%20for%20Afghanistan.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOmid%20Rahman%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20fast%20bowler%20became%20a%20pioneer%20earlier%20this%20year%20when%20he%20became%20the%20first%20Afghan%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE.%20He%20showed%20great%20promise%20in%20doing%20so%2C%20too%2C%20playing%20a%20key%20role%20in%20the%20senior%20team%E2%80%99s%20qualification%20for%20the%20Asia%20Cup%20in%20Muscat%20recently.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The five pillars of Islam
The view from The National
Read more about the coronavirus
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More coverage from the Future Forum
More on Quran memorisation:
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More on Quran memorisation:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
FA Cup fifth round draw
Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City
Reading/Cardiff City v Sheffield United
Chelsea v Shrewsbury Town/Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United/Oxford United
Leicester City v Coventry City/Birmingham City
Northampton Town/Derby County v Manchester United
Southampton/Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Portsmouth v Arsenal
The years Ramadan fell in May
Bridgerton%20season%20three%20-%20part%20one
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicola%20Coughlan%2C%20Luke%20Newton%2C%20Jonathan%20Bailey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
The five pillars of Islam
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
How do Sim card scams work?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards by claiming to be the victim, often pretending their phone has been lost or stolen in order to secure a new Sim.
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
The years Ramadan fell in May
More from Neighbourhood Watch
More on animal trafficking
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The years Ramadan fell in May
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
