As Israel and Iran give each other some serious side-eye, regional geopolitical winds may be shifting in favour of a larger role for Turkey in this slowly metastasising Middle East war.
Start with the long-running Israel-Iran shadow conflict bursting into the open in recent weeks. Despite Tehran’s muted response to Israel’s latest strikes, negotiations may be required to avoid escalation, which could make Ankara’s friendly ties with Tehran invaluable.
Turkey already served as the key backchannel for Tehran and Washington as Iranian officials mulled retaliation options earlier this month. After Israel and its allies shot down nearly all of Iran’s 300 projectiles, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly thanked Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan for serving as a go-between – a significant show of US appreciation at a fraught regional moment.
Second, Doha may be ending its role as Hamas-Israel mediator after being criticised by some members of the US Congress for failed peace talks. “We have seen insults against our mediation and its exploitation for the sake of narrow political interests,” Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman said last week in Doha at a news conference with Mr Fidan.
Meanwhile, reports emerged on the weekend that Hamas leaders are being pressured to leave Qatar, alongside additional reports that Turkey is the leading relocation option.
Third, Ankara’s flurry of diplomatic activity suggests a clear desire for greater involvement. Mr Fidan’s Doha visit last week almost seemed a passing of the proverbial baton. He met the Qatari Prime Minister and with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, after which he laid out the group’s potential willingness to disband its armed wing and become a political party if a Palestinian state is agreed to along the 1967 borders.
If Erdogan were to put Palestinians on the road to their own state, he would secure himself an unimpeachable regional legacy
Mr Haniyeh then hopped over to Istanbul to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday.
Mr Erdogan also met Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry on Saturday, and on Monday flew to Baghdad and met Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who is close to Tehran. Also on Monday, amid reports that Mr Erdogan’s May 9 visit to Washington may be cancelled, US counter-terrorism ambassador Elizabeth Richard arrived in Ankara to meet top Turkish officials. There’s also the new Gaza aid flotilla, which is expected to set sail this week and should further boost Turkey’s profile in the Levant.
Lastly, a presidential decree issued this month laid out plans to reform Turkey’s Foreign Ministry with the creation of a mediation directorate. This might strike some as a desperate stab at regional relevance, but this is not an unfamiliar role for Ankara.
Turkey hosted peace talks between the Taliban, the US and the Afghan government in 2021, and for years worked with Russia, Iran and Qatar to achieve a political solution in Syria, though both of those efforts fell short.
Turkey has offered to mediate Egypt and Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam dispute, and of course, brokered two rounds of Russia-Ukraine talks in 2022: failed peace negotiations and a successful grain deal that probably helped stave off famine in Africa. “In a broken world,” I argued at the time, “unpalatable solutions are often our only recourse.”
Ankara now appears to have embarked on a public campaign to mediate: a senior Turkish official discussed the idea with The National; an Ankara-based affairs analyst addressed it in an Arab news outlet; and columnist Burhanettin Duran, head of the government-backed Seta think tank, wrote that he expects Mr Erdogan “to work more closely with world leaders to try and save the region from the Israeli-Iranian escalation”.
Is Ankara better positioned to mediate than Doha? Both are among the few countries that can ring top officials from Hamas, Iran, the US and Israel and expect an answer. Qatar is home to the region’s largest US military presence, but Turkey also hosts a sizable US troop contingent, as well as US nuclear weapons, at its Incirlik base.
Turkey also offers an element Qatar lacks: major involvement in Eastern Mediterranean energy. Ankara could present some sort of maritime energy concession to the allied trio of Israel, Egypt and Greece.
As a Nato member and EU-candidate country, Ankara is firmly ensconced in the western economic and security architecture. As a Hamas supporter and friend to Tehran, regional extremist groups tend to trust Turkey’s leadership.
This is a strength from the view of Iran and Hamas, but for western and Israeli eyes it may be the biggest strike against Turkey. Few states have been as critical of Israel in recent months. Mr Erdogan has repeatedly accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and in December said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is “worse than Hitler”.
Turkey recently banned a long list of exports to Israel, but Ankara maintains a free trade agreement and diplomatic ties with Israel and enables its oil trade with Azerbaijan. Still, Turkey’s Gaza stance has not gone unnoticed. On the weekend, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz posted a picture of Mr Erdogan and Mr Haniyeh on social media and wrote that Turkey’s leader “should be ashamed”.
Many observers responded similarly to a statement Mr Erdogan made last week. At an AKP parliamentary gathering, he made a stunning assertion, arguing that Hamas is the equivalent of the national resistance movement that won Turkey’s independence a century ago.
Why would Mr Erdogan compare the perpetrators of the horrific October 7 assault to Turkey’s revered founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk? To appeal to Turkish voters who are firmly pro-Palestinian, for one. But also, perhaps because he sees the opportunity before him.
Pressure is growing on US President Joe Biden and the Netanyahu government to find some way to halt the war and gain the release of the Israeli hostages. And much the way Ataturk secured his legacy by winning the war and founding the Turkish Republic, if Mr Erdogan were to help resolve this crisis and put Palestinians on the road to their own state, he would secure himself an unimpeachable and enduring regional legacy.
Getting there will likely require strategic brilliance, moral courage and dogged commitment to solving one of the world’s knottiest conundrums. Best of luck to Turkish diplomats, should they be handed the largely thankless task.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
Result
Arsenal 4
Monreal (51'), Ramsey (82'), Lacazette 85', 89')
West Ham United 1
Arnautovic (64')
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At Everton Appearances: 77; Goals: 17
At Manchester United Appearances: 559; Goals: 253
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
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1. Fasting
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3. Hajj
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
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Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents
Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University
As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families
Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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SCORES IN BRIEF
New Zealand 153 and 56 for 1 in 22.4 overs at close
Pakistan 227
(Babar 62, Asad 43, Boult 4-54, De Grandhomme 2-30, Patel 2-64)
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
