Iran's retaliatory attack against Israel on April 13 was unnecessary, unsuccessful and self-defeating, indicating a deeply flawed national security decision-making process. However, should Israel's response be limited to the April 19 attack on Isfahan, the conflict can still be contained.
Before April 13, Iran seemed to be on a favourable trajectory. Hamas' attack against Israel on October 7 not only discredited Israel's intelligence and security services but also fundamentally challenged the myth of Israel’s invulnerability. Then, Israel's initial response in Gaza derailed the potential for normalisation of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, as the Israeli military entered Gaza, the suffering of civilians there increasingly dominated the news cycle, leading to growing international criticism of Israel's conduct of the war. These events likely pleased Tehran.
Israel did conduct pinpoint strikes against Iranian and allied militia positions, including ongoing attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, which have resulted in the deaths of at least 269 Hezbollah fighters. Israel’s January 20 bombing of the Quds Force intelligence headquarters in Damascus and April 1 targeting of an Iranian consular building in Damascus, too, were clear escalations by Israel. However, these operations did not significantly degrade Hezbollah's capabilities nor irreparably disrupt Iran's ability to operate in the region. The Quds Force, like any military organisation, has a large pool of officers capable of replacing slain commanders.
As the injured party whose diplomatic mission had been targeted, Iran could have held the moral high ground following the April 1 strike. Iran could also have kept the Israeli public in suspense by indicating a potential willingness to retaliate against Israel while continuing its policy of "strategic patience" adopted since the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011.
Instead, Iran launched a direct attack against Israel. Iranian officials argue the retaliatory operation was necessary to establish deterrence against Israel and prevent future Israeli attacks against Iran and Iranian interests. Early indications, however, suggest it had the opposite effect.
Israel's multi-layered air defence systems, along with support from the US military and other allies, neutralised almost all Iranian drones and missiles. Israeli reports suggest some Arab states may have provided Israel with early warnings and one, Jordan, even intercepted drones. The news cycle is no longer focused on the suffering of civilians in Gaza, and in many corners sympathy has shifted back to Israel, portraying Iran as the aggressor. The Israeli public no longer fears Iran's missiles and drones; Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system appears as impenetrable as ever. Worse still from Tehran's perspective, despite President Joe Biden's advice to the contrary, Israel may yet use the Iranian attack as a pretext to launch a military operation against Iran, counting on automatic US support if Iran responds.
The news cycle is no longer focused on the suffering of civilians in Gaza, and in many corners sympathy has shifted back to Israel, portraying Iran as the aggressor
Iran's miscalculation and failure can be attributed to a deeply flawed national security decision-making process under President Ibrahim Raisi. Under his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, strategic decisions were shaped by the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), composed of representatives from major government departments. While representatives from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its most powerful branch, the Quds Force, had a greater say on matters of hard national security, each government agency was free to contribute with its expertise. The SNSC secretary under Mr Rouhani, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, would consider these recommendations before presenting them to the president, who would then seek Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's final approval. In most cases, Mr Khamenei would approve of the policy recommendations rather than impose his own preferences on the SNSC, which would avoid him being personally responsible should the decision prove erroneous. This process ensured that all government agencies and elite groups were stakeholders in the adopted policy, thus protecting the regime against catastrophic miscalculations.
In the case of the April 14 retaliatory attack, the strategic decision-making process was reversed: Mr Khamenei publicly promised to "punish" Israel and then tasked the SNSC with presenting a plan. The wisdom of retaliating against the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate was never debated in the SNSC, as Mr Khamenei's public promise took precedence. An adviser to the Iranian interior minister further disclosed that there was no dissent at the SNSC's April 2 meeting, with all members allegedly backing the IRGC’s proposal to target Israel directly from Iran.
This indicates a broken national security decision-making process in Iran, where integrity is replaced with obsequiousness, expert opinion with groupthink and adventurism supersedes prudence. Mr Raisi's weakness in standing up to Mr Khamenei's impulses, coupled with a timid Cabinet and government bureaucracy, has allowed for the unchecked, damaging adventurism of the IRGC and Quds Force.
If Israel launches a humiliating military operation against Iran, the Islamic Republic will face the choice of returning to its policy of "strategic patience", thus losing face at home and abroad, or escalating further with more attacks against Israel, potentially leading to American intervention. If the latter occurs, there is a real risk Iran may even dash for the nuclear bomb to establish the deterrence that its failed drone and missile attack could not achieve, potentially causing further calamities at home and in the region. None of this would have happened had cooler heads prevailed in Tehran and continued the regime's more effective policy of "strategic patience" in the face of Israeli provocations.
Results:
Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Azizbek Satibaldiev (KYG). Round 1 KO
Featherweight: Izzeddin Farhan (JOR) beat Ozodbek Azimov (UZB). Round 1 rear naked choke
Middleweight: Zaakir Badat (RSA) beat Ercin Sirin (TUR). Round 1 triangle choke
Featherweight: Ali Alqaisi (JOR) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (UZB). Round 1 TKO
Featherweight: Abu Muslim Alikhanov (RUS) beat Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG). Unanimous decision
Catchweight 74kg: Mirafzal Akhtamov (UZB) beat Marcos Costa (BRA). Split decision
Welterweight: Andre Fialho (POR) beat Sang Hoon-yu (KOR). Round 1 TKO
Lightweight: John Mitchell (IRE) beat Arbi Emiev (RUS). Round 2 RSC (deep cuts)
Middleweight: Gianni Melillo (ITA) beat Mohammed Karaki (LEB)
Welterweight: Handesson Ferreira (BRA) beat Amiran Gogoladze (GEO). Unanimous decision
Flyweight (Female): Carolina Jimenez (VEN) beat Lucrezia Ria (ITA), Round 1 rear naked choke
Welterweight: Daniel Skibinski (POL) beat Acoidan Duque (ESP). Round 3 TKO
Lightweight: Martun Mezhlumyan (ARM) beat Attila Korkmaz (TUR). Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ray Borg (USA) beat Jesse Arnett (CAN). Unanimous decision
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
THREE
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The%20specs%3A%20Taycan%20Turbo%20GT
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The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Saudi Cup race day
Schedule in UAE time
5pm: Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors Cup (Turf), 5.35pm: 1351 Cup (T), 6.10pm: Longines Turf Handicap (T), 6.45pm: Obaiya Arabian Classic for Purebred Arabians (Dirt), 7.30pm: Jockey Club Handicap (D), 8.10pm: Samba Saudi Derby (D), 8.50pm: Saudia Sprint (D), 9.40pm: Saudi Cup (D)
Ashes 2019 schedule
August 1-5: First Test, Edgbaston
August 14-18: Second Test, Lord's
August 22-26: Third Test, Headingley
September 4-8: Fourth Test, Old Trafford
September 12-16: Fifth Test, Oval
Sri Lanka squad
Dinesh Chandimal, Dimuth Karunaratne, Kaushal Silva, Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Lahiru Thirimanne, Niroshan Dickwella, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Rangana Herath, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Lakshan Sandakan, Vishwa Fernando, Lahiru Kumara, Jeffrey Vandersay, Milinda Siriwardana, Roshen Silva, Akila Dananjaya, Charith Asalanka, Shaminda Eranga and Dhammika Prasad.
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EXare%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%2018%2C%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPadmini%20Gupta%2C%20Milind%20Singh%2C%20Mandeep%20Singh%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20Raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2410%20million%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E28%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMS%26amp%3BAD%20Ventures%2C%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Astra%20Amco%2C%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%2C%20Fintech%20Fund%2C%20500%20Startups%2C%20Khwarizmi%20Ventures%2C%20and%20Phoenician%20Funds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
SPECS
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
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MATCH INFO
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2a)
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ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
UAE gold medallists:
Omar Al Suweidi (46kg), Khaled Al Shehhi (50kg), Khalifa Humaid Al Kaabi (60kg), Omar Al Fadhli (62kg), Mohammed Ali Al Suweidi (66kg), Omar Ahmed Al Hosani (73), all in the U18’s, and Khalid Eskandar Al Blooshi (56kg) in the U21s.
Brief scores:
Newcastle United 1
Perez 23'
Wolverhampton Rovers 2
Jota 17', Doherty 90' 4
Red cards: Yedlin 57'
Man of the Match: Diogo Jota (Wolves)
