Iran's retaliatory attack against Israel on April 13 was unnecessary, unsuccessful and self-defeating, indicating a deeply flawed national security decision-making process. However, should Israel's response be limited to the April 19 attack on Isfahan, the conflict can still be contained.
Before April 13, Iran seemed to be on a favourable trajectory. Hamas' attack against Israel on October 7 not only discredited Israel's intelligence and security services but also fundamentally challenged the myth of Israel’s invulnerability. Then, Israel's initial response in Gaza derailed the potential for normalisation of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, as the Israeli military entered Gaza, the suffering of civilians there increasingly dominated the news cycle, leading to growing international criticism of Israel's conduct of the war. These events likely pleased Tehran.
Israel did conduct pinpoint strikes against Iranian and allied militia positions, including ongoing attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, which have resulted in the deaths of at least 269 Hezbollah fighters. Israel’s January 20 bombing of the Quds Force intelligence headquarters in Damascus and April 1 targeting of an Iranian consular building in Damascus, too, were clear escalations by Israel. However, these operations did not significantly degrade Hezbollah's capabilities nor irreparably disrupt Iran's ability to operate in the region. The Quds Force, like any military organisation, has a large pool of officers capable of replacing slain commanders.
As the injured party whose diplomatic mission had been targeted, Iran could have held the moral high ground following the April 1 strike. Iran could also have kept the Israeli public in suspense by indicating a potential willingness to retaliate against Israel while continuing its policy of "strategic patience" adopted since the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011.
Instead, Iran launched a direct attack against Israel. Iranian officials argue the retaliatory operation was necessary to establish deterrence against Israel and prevent future Israeli attacks against Iran and Iranian interests. Early indications, however, suggest it had the opposite effect.
Israel's multi-layered air defence systems, along with support from the US military and other allies, neutralised almost all Iranian drones and missiles. Israeli reports suggest some Arab states may have provided Israel with early warnings and one, Jordan, even intercepted drones. The news cycle is no longer focused on the suffering of civilians in Gaza, and in many corners sympathy has shifted back to Israel, portraying Iran as the aggressor. The Israeli public no longer fears Iran's missiles and drones; Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system appears as impenetrable as ever. Worse still from Tehran's perspective, despite President Joe Biden's advice to the contrary, Israel may yet use the Iranian attack as a pretext to launch a military operation against Iran, counting on automatic US support if Iran responds.
The news cycle is no longer focused on the suffering of civilians in Gaza, and in many corners sympathy has shifted back to Israel, portraying Iran as the aggressor
Iran's miscalculation and failure can be attributed to a deeply flawed national security decision-making process under President Ibrahim Raisi. Under his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, strategic decisions were shaped by the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), composed of representatives from major government departments. While representatives from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its most powerful branch, the Quds Force, had a greater say on matters of hard national security, each government agency was free to contribute with its expertise. The SNSC secretary under Mr Rouhani, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, would consider these recommendations before presenting them to the president, who would then seek Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's final approval. In most cases, Mr Khamenei would approve of the policy recommendations rather than impose his own preferences on the SNSC, which would avoid him being personally responsible should the decision prove erroneous. This process ensured that all government agencies and elite groups were stakeholders in the adopted policy, thus protecting the regime against catastrophic miscalculations.
In the case of the April 14 retaliatory attack, the strategic decision-making process was reversed: Mr Khamenei publicly promised to "punish" Israel and then tasked the SNSC with presenting a plan. The wisdom of retaliating against the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate was never debated in the SNSC, as Mr Khamenei's public promise took precedence. An adviser to the Iranian interior minister further disclosed that there was no dissent at the SNSC's April 2 meeting, with all members allegedly backing the IRGC’s proposal to target Israel directly from Iran.
This indicates a broken national security decision-making process in Iran, where integrity is replaced with obsequiousness, expert opinion with groupthink and adventurism supersedes prudence. Mr Raisi's weakness in standing up to Mr Khamenei's impulses, coupled with a timid Cabinet and government bureaucracy, has allowed for the unchecked, damaging adventurism of the IRGC and Quds Force.
If Israel launches a humiliating military operation against Iran, the Islamic Republic will face the choice of returning to its policy of "strategic patience", thus losing face at home and abroad, or escalating further with more attacks against Israel, potentially leading to American intervention. If the latter occurs, there is a real risk Iran may even dash for the nuclear bomb to establish the deterrence that its failed drone and missile attack could not achieve, potentially causing further calamities at home and in the region. None of this would have happened had cooler heads prevailed in Tehran and continued the regime's more effective policy of "strategic patience" in the face of Israeli provocations.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
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Barbie
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Abu Dhabi card
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 2,400m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 2,200m
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 1,400m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 1,400m
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
The National selections:
5pm: Valcartier
5.30pm: AF Taraha
6pm: Dhafra
6.30pm: Maqam
7pm: AF Mekhbat
7.30pm: Ezz Al Rawasi
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Lampedusa: Gateway to Europe
Pietro Bartolo and Lidia Tilotta
Quercus
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Day 4, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Lahiru Gamage appeared to have been hard done by when he had his dismissal of Sami Aslam chalked off for a no-ball. Replays suggested he had not overstepped. No matter. Two balls later, the exact same combination – Gamage the bowler and Kusal Mendis at second slip – combined again to send Aslam back.
Stat of the day Haris Sohail took three wickets for one run in the only over he bowled, to end the Sri Lanka second innings in a hurry. That was as many as he had managed in total in his 10-year, 58-match first-class career to date. It was also the first time a bowler had taken three wickets having bowled just one over in an innings in Tests.
The verdict Just 119 more and with five wickets remaining seems like a perfectly attainable target for Pakistan. Factor in the fact the pitch is worn, is turning prodigiously, and that Sri Lanka’s seam bowlers have also been finding the strip to their liking, it is apparent the task is still a tough one. Still, though, thanks to Asad Shafiq and Sarfraz Ahmed, it is possible.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Infobox
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August
Results
UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets
Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets
Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets
Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs
Monday fixtures
UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain
The British in India: Three Centuries of Ambition and Experience
by David Gilmour
Allen Lane
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
