An agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to heal their previously fractious relationship, mediated with Chinese involvement, survived its first year despite a host of misperceptions guiding both sides.
For the agreement to continue and evolve beyond a tactical detente, the two parties must acknowledge its real limits and potential. Neither side appears ready to let go of its core ideological stance (in the short term, at least) nor does China appear ready to intervene in any major way to safeguard the agreement.
The success of the bilateral relations hinges then on realising the untapped power at the disposal of Iranian and Saudi authorities. A regional solution anchored on a gradated approach is the safest bet to lasting peace and order. Having successfully fulfilled confidence-building measures during the first year of the agreement, an update is overdue. That would be one marked by clearing misperceptions and advocating specific economic and security projects across the second year of the agreement.
Misperception of the extent of the Chinese role in bringing about the agreement remains widespread insofar as the Kingdom and the Islamic Republic are concerned, though it could be categorised, for brevity, into two types: real and engineered. In terms of the first, there is a persistent view among some Saudi and Iranian circles that China, due to its extensive economic ties, exercises considerable leverage over both parties.
This leverage (and the asymmetry as well as trust it entails) renders China, this logic goes, as far more capable of acting as a guarantor to a detente than the US (or Russia or the EU). In other words, China’s expanding footprint in the Middle East, as the premier trading partner and energy consumer of Saudi Arabia and Iran, endows it with unparalleled capacity to punish violations to the agreement. These are, in our opinion, the delayed reverberations of the much-misunderstood 25-year Sino-Iranian “strategic treaty”, the content of which has exaggerated China’s long-term economic and security commitments towards Iran.
The engineered misperception can also be sourced back to Riyadh and Tehran. Some policymakers, per our own conversations, are aware of the limits of Chinese willingness to exercise its influence in defence of the agreement. Rather, they see China, in light of intensifying Sino-American rivalry, as a useful means by which to signal their separate messages of displeasure (and solicitations) to the US, while also strengthening ties with China. This may explain why there are conflicting Saudi and Iranian narratives (some at the very highest levels) about who exactly requested China’s mediation (and when), all of which ultimately credit the personal role played by President Xi Jinping in bringing the agreement to fruition.
In opting for a Chinese mediator, Saudi and Iranian actors have presented this agreement as marking a transformative new phase in China’s regional and global power. This narrative has naturally found reception among audiences hyper-focused on great power competition. The late Henry Kissinger (much beloved and feted by the Chinese leadership) compared the 2023 detente to Nixon’s 1971 visit to Maoist China, arguing that Beijing had changed “the terms of reference in international diplomacy”.
Acclaimed Chinese experts on the Middle East, such as Niu Xinchun, Li Shaoxian and Ding Long, have celebrated the agreement in similar terms, casting it as indicative of the success of Chinese diplomatic practices when compared to the US. In the meantime, American analysts in Washington and Republican-aligned conservative commentators have decried it as confirming the Biden administration’s incompetence in managing the China threat.
The tone of Chinese diplomats when discussing the agreement belies the fact that they do not view their country’s role as that of a guarantor
These misperceptions – whether from the vantage point of Riyadh, Tehran or even Washington – miss the fact that China is not a guarantor. Its two decades-long record of mediation efforts in Palestine, Sudan, Libya and Sudan show that its modus operandi does not include pressuring parties to come to an agreement.
Instead, successful outcomes of mediational intervention – and the Saudi-Iranian detente is really the lone example here – are contingent upon prior buy-in from the concerned actors. Five rounds of talks hosted by Iraq and Oman, and region-wide interest in de-escalation since the Abqaiq-Khurais attacks in Saudi Arabia in 2019, have meant that there existed an immensely suitable environment and moment for Chinese “quasi-mediation” (as the academics Sun Degang and Yahya Zoubair call it).
This Chinese soft-handedness to mediation also applies to its ability (and willingness) to enforce the agreement. One line of thought, prevalent in Saudi Arabia, is that if Iran violates the agreement it would damage its relations with China and invite the latter to impose some kind of punishment. But such behaviour would be quite out of sync with Chinese diplomatic approaches. There are many scenarios where Tehran (or Riyadh) could present a credible case, on national security grounds, of breaking the agreement that would be convincing (or understandable) to Beijing.
The tone of Chinese diplomats when discussing the agreement belies the fact that they do not view their country’s role as that of a guarantor. The word “hope”, for instance, peppers the statements of Wang Di, the Director General of the department of West Asian and North African Affairs at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister himself. They affirm that China would play a “constructive role” in advancing and deepening the Saudi-Iranian detente, but the onus for its success is squarely a regional one.
The second year of the agreement kicks off with a solid foundation. Both parties know each other better, given their impressively continuous and heightened communication and direct meetings across various levels, political and technical, during the past year. Realism is increasingly characterising the calculus of both – even if in varying degrees – when it comes to acknowledging the redlines and differences of the other party. No alliance is expected, or frankly sought, but the ability to manage a turbulent region and extract win-win concessions for both sides is marking the elements of a reconfigured regional approach.
Continued focus on security and a fresh approach to the economy will best serve year-two discussions. The war in Yemen is not over. Supporting the de-internationalisation of Yemen and an intra-Yemeni dialogue that takes into account all grievances and demands is no easy undertaking for all parties involved, including Saudi Arabia and Iran. But it will be necessary, especially given the slow pace of talks this past year and the added complications arising from the current conflict in the Red Sea. The Durra/Arash gas field has been a point of contention between Iran on the one side and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait on the other. Bringing the file into the rubric of the agreement will prove a useful stress test for it.
Intertwined interests are the best guarantor for peace and security. Joint economic projects that demonstrate benefit to both sides will score a point for policymakers and citizens at large who would feel the impact of these changes on the ground. Sanctions on Iran stand in the way of actualising several projects, but there is room in unsanctioned items like select food items, agriculture commodities, medicines and medical supplies, and even the opportunity to press for partial relief that serves the goal of reducing tensions in the Middle East.
The road to a lasting Saudi-Iranian agreement is fraught with challenges, yet it is a promising undertaking to advance peace and security in a region in dire need for both. Clearing misperceptions, understanding the Chinese role and fronting a regional approach and specific projects this year are necessary steps towards ensuring that the agreement holds.
US Industrial Market figures, Q1 2017
Vacancy Rate 5.4%
Markets With Positive Absorption 85.7 per cent
New Supply 55 million sq ft
New Supply to Inventory 0.4 per cent
Under Construction 198.2 million sq ft
(Source: Colliers)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S E Performance: the specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8 plus rear-mounted electric motor
Power: 843hp at N/A rpm
Torque: 1470Nm N/A rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.6L/100km
On sale: October to December
Price: From Dh875,000 (estimate)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In the Restaurant: Society in Four Courses
Christoph Ribbat
Translated by Jamie Searle Romanelli
Pushkin Press
Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
Glossary of a stock market revolution
Reddit
A discussion website
Redditor
The users of Reddit
Robinhood
A smartphone app for buying and selling shares
Short seller
Selling a stock today in the belief its price will fall in the future
Short squeeze
Traders forced to buy a stock they are shorting
Naked short
An illegal practice
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Operation Mincemeat'
Director: John Madden
Cast: Colin Firth, Matthew Macfayden, Kelly Macdonald and Penelope Wilton
Rating: 4/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
Tips for SMEs to cope
- Adapt your business model. Make changes that are future-proof to the new normal
- Make sure you have an online presence
- Open communication with suppliers, especially if they are international. Look for local suppliers to avoid delivery delays
- Open communication with customers to see how they are coping and be flexible about extending terms, etc
Courtesy: Craig Moore, founder and CEO of Beehive, which provides term finance and working capital finance to SMEs. Only SMEs that have been trading for two years are eligible for funding from Beehive.
The rules of the road keeping cyclists safe
Cyclists must wear a helmet, arm and knee pads
Have a white front-light and a back red-light on their bike
They must place a number plate with reflective light to the back of the bike to alert road-users
Avoid carrying weights that could cause the bike to lose balance
They must cycle on designated lanes and areas and ride safe on pavements to avoid bumping into pedestrians
How to help
Donate towards food and a flight by transferring money to this registered charity's account.
Account name: Dar Al Ber Society
Account Number: 11 530 734
IBAN: AE 9805 000 000 000 11 530 734
Bank Name: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
To ensure that your contribution reaches these people, please send the copy of deposit/transfer receipt to: juhi.khan@daralber.ae
Profile of Udrive
Date started: March 2016
Founder: Hasib Khan
Based: Dubai
Employees: 40
Amount raised (to date): $3.25m – $750,000 seed funding in 2017 and a Seed round of $2.5m last year. Raised $1.3m from Eureeca investors in January 2021 as part of a Series A round with a $5m target.
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Key features of new policy
Pupils to learn coding and other vocational skills from Grade 6
Exams to test critical thinking and application of knowledge
A new National Assessment Centre, PARAKH (Performance, Assessment, Review and Analysis for Holistic Development) will form the standard for schools
Schools to implement online system to encouraging transparency and accountability
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: N2 Technology
Founded: 2018
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Startups
Size: 14
Funding: $1.7m from HNIs
More on animal trafficking
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RESULTS
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How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Fund-raising tips for start-ups
Develop an innovative business concept
Have the ability to differentiate yourself from competitors
Put in place a business continuity plan after Covid-19
Prepare for the worst-case scenario (further lockdowns, long wait for a vaccine, etc.)
Have enough cash to stay afloat for the next 12 to 18 months
Be creative and innovative to reduce expenses
Be prepared to use Covid-19 as an opportunity for your business
* Tips from Jassim Al Marzooqi and Walid Hanna
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Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Iran's dirty tricks to dodge sanctions
There’s increased scrutiny on the tricks being used to keep commodities flowing to and from blacklisted countries. Here’s a description of how some work.
1 Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil with stealth is to turn off the Automatic Identification System, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later, masking the location of its load or discharge port.
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight. The vessels will then sail in different directions. For about a third of Iranian exports, more than one tanker typically handles a load before it’s delivered to its final destination, analysts say.
3. Fake Destinations
Signaling the wrong destination to load or unload is another technique. Ships that intend to take cargo from Iran may indicate their loading ports in sanction-free places like Iraq. Ships can keep changing their destinations and end up not berthing at any of them.
4. Rebranded Barrels
Iranian barrels can also be rebranded as oil from a nation free from sanctions such as Iraq. The countries share fields along their border and the crude has similar characteristics. Oil from these deposits can be trucked out to another port and documents forged to hide Iran as the origin.
* Bloomberg
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Shafaf, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Noof KB, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Jim Crowley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Group One (PA) Dh2,500,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Mekhbat, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
THE%20SPECS
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'Joker'
Directed by: Todd Phillips
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix
Rating: Five out of five stars
Jurassic%20Park
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