As the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel continues in the shadow of the Gaza war, the term “rules of the game” has been raised many times to explain how the sides have responded militarily to each other while averting an escalation that might cause major damage to both.
However, it is also evident that the purported rules of the game have been repeatedly transgressed by the Israelis. This suggests that the so-called “dialogue of deterrence” between Hezbollah and Israel – a term coined by the Israeli scholar Yair Evron in the context of the Israeli-Syrian relationship during the years of the Lebanese civil war – is neither truly a dialogue nor has it been successful in deterring Israel.
The “rules of the game” first emerged in 1996, when Israel mounted its Grapes of Wrath operation in Lebanon, which was ended by an informal agreement, known as the April Understanding. The agreement sought to protect civilians on both sides of the Lebanese-Israeli border, at a time when Hezbollah was fighting the Israeli occupation. What it effectively did, however, was legitimise the decision of either side to transgress the tenets of the understanding in retaliation for the other side having done so first.
This evolved after the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000. At the time, Hezbollah claimed that Israel still occupied Lebanese land, notably the Shebaa Farms. Israel and the UN challenged this. The farms, if they’re not Lebanese, are technically part of the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. The Israelis accepted a certain level of Hezbollah attacks in this area, as the territory remained contested.
The so-called dialogue of deterrence between Hezbollah and Israel is neither a dialogue nor has it been successful in deterring Israel
These red lines have been increasingly crossed since the start of the Gaza war, and there is a reason for this. What is taking place is an Israeli effort to rewrite the deterrence equation – in Lebanon, but also in Syria – so that it leans more heavily in Israel’s favour.
About a year ago, the pro-Iran “Axis of Resistance” tried to do the same by floating a strategy that came to be known as the “unity of arenas”. The idea was that Iran’s network of regional proxies would collaborate in opening multiple fronts against Israel in response to Israeli actions deemed unacceptable – for instance, violating Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
The risks were immediately apparent to many observers, since the strategy implied that a contained confrontation between Hamas and Israel in Gaza could suddenly spread to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or even Yemen, should other Iranian allies enter the fray in support of Hamas. Indeed, it may have been this expectation that led the Hamas leadership in Gaza to attack Israel on October 7. If so, the leadership’s expectations were only partly fulfilled.
Almost immediately, Hezbollah clarified that it did not want to see a major escalation of the war with Israel, neither did Iran – and certainly not if the US would intervene on Israel’s behalf. In successive speeches, Hezbollah’s secretary general Hassan Nasrallah stated that Lebanon was merely a “support front” for Hamas, while also implying that the country’s economic and social realities meant it could not absorb a full-scale war.
Such admissions from Hezbollah and Iran encouraged the Israelis to raise the ante. Everything suggests the gamble succeeded. Israel has killed dozens of Hezbollah operatives and a senior Hamas leader, Saleh Al Arouri, in Lebanon, in addition to several Iranian generals in Syria, two of them killed in the Iranian embassy compound last week. The Israelis have also ravaged large agricultural areas in south Lebanon, bombing them with white phosphorous.
Israel appears to be trying to normalise a lopsided deterrence situation in which it can strike much harder blows against Hezbollah and Iran, without expecting them to respond in kind because they are so keen to avoid a major military escalation.
If the Israelis succeed in doing such a thing, then it could push the Iranians to re-examine the “unity of arenas” strategy. The strategy cannot endure if the threshold of violence the participants in the Axis of Resistance can endure is lower than Israel’s, since effective deterrence is about the ability of one side to escalate to the levels of the adversary.
The danger is that Hezbollah and Iran will almost certainly not allow Israel to impose an uneven deterrence equation on them. They may be willing to absorb punishment for now, but sooner or later they will have to readjust the relationship, to ensure that Israel will not continue to restrict their margin of manoeuvre. But for that to succeed, some kind of confrontation may have to take place, so that Israel can feel the pain.
By trying to alter a long-standing status quo with Israel, the Iranians must have known they were taking a great risk. The problem with deterrence is that it is often held in place by brinksmanship. This implies that a direct Iranian-Israeli clash, including through Hezbollah, may lie ahead. When one’s credibility is at stake, blinking is not an option.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
Kill%20Bill%20Volume%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Quentin%20Tarantino%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Uma%20Thurman%2C%20David%20Carradine%20and%20Michael%20Madsen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness'
Director: Sam Raimi
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Elizabeth Olsen, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Benedict Wong, Xochitl Gomez, Michael Stuhlbarg and Rachel McAdams
Rating: 3/5
Selected fixtures
All times UAE
Wednesday
Poland v Portugal 10.45pm
Russia v Sweden 10.45pm
Friday
Belgium v Switzerland 10.45pm
Croatia v England 10.45pm
Saturday
Netherlands v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Denmark 10.45pm
Sunday
Poland v Italy 10.45pm
Monday
Spain v England 10.45pm
Tuesday
France v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Wales 10.45pm
FIGHT%20CARD
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBader%20Samreen%20(8-0-0)%20v%20Jose%20Paez%20Gonzales%20(16-2-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20flyweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESultan%20Al%20Nuaimi%20(9-0-0)%20v%20Jemsi%20Kibazange%20(18-6-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECruiseweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Bekdash%20(25-0-0)%20v%20Musa%20N%E2%80%99tege%20(8-4-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20featherweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBishara%20Sabbar%20(6-0-0)%20v%20Mohammed%20Azahar%20(8-5-1)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMarwan%20Mohamad%20Madboly%20(2-0-0)%20v%20Sheldon%20Schultz%20(4-4-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHeavyweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYoussef%20Karrar%20(1-0-0)%20v%20Muhammad%20Muzeei%20(0-0-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBenyamin%20Moradzadeh%20(0-0-0)%20v%20Rohit%20Chaudhary%20(4-0-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYousuf%20Ali%20(2-0-0)%20(win-loss-draw)%20v%20Alex%20Semugenyi%20(0-1-0)%0D%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ASSASSIN'S%20CREED%20MIRAGE
%3Cp%3E%0DDeveloper%3A%20Ubisoft%20Bordeaux%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20Series%20S%26amp%3BX%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The specs
Engine: 4 liquid-cooled permanent magnet synchronous electric motors placed at each wheel
Battery: Rimac 120kWh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power: 1877bhp
Torque: 2300Nm
Price: Dh7,500,00
On sale: Now
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
UAE's role in anti-extremism recognised
General John Allen, President of the Brookings Institution research group, commended the role the UAE has played in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism.
He told a Globsec debate of the UAE’s "hugely outsized" role in the fight against Isis.
"It’s trite these days to say that any country punches above its weight, but in every possible way the Emirates did, both militarily, and very importantly, the UAE was extraordinarily helpful on getting to the issue of violent extremism," he said.
He also noted the impact that Hedayah, among others in the UAE, has played in addressing violent extremism.
Scoreline
Liverpool 4
Oxlade-Chamberlain 9', Firmino 59', Mane 61', Salah 68'
Manchester City 3
Sane 40', Bernardo Silva 84', Gundogan 90' 1
List of alleged parties
May 15 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at
least 17 staff members
May 20 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'bring your own booze'
party
Nov 27 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary
Gavin Williamson
Dec 13 2020: PM and Carrie throw a flat party
Dec 14 2020: London mayor candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative
Party headquarters
Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test Thursday-Monday at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Asia Cup Qualifier
Venue: Kuala Lumpur
Result: Winners play at Asia Cup in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in September
Fixtures:
Wed Aug 29: Malaysia v Hong Kong, Nepal v Oman, UAE v Singapore
Thu Aug 30: UAE v Nepal, Hong Kong v Singapore, Malaysia v Oman
Sat Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong, Oman v Singapore, Malaysia v Nepal
Sun Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman, Malaysia v UAE, Nepal v Singapore
Tue Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore, UAE v Oman, Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu Sep 6: Final
Asia Cup
Venue: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Schedule: Sep 15-28
Teams: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, plus the winner of the Qualifier
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Conservative MPs who have publicly revealed sending letters of no confidence
- Steve Baker
- Peter Bone
- Ben Bradley
- Andrew Bridgen
- Maria Caulfield
- Simon Clarke
- Philip Davies
- Nadine Dorries
- James Duddridge
- Mark Francois
- Chris Green
- Adam Holloway
- Andrea Jenkyns
- Anne-Marie Morris
- Sheryll Murray
- Jacob Rees-Mogg
- Laurence Robertson
- Lee Rowley
- Henry Smith
- Martin Vickers
- John Whittingdale
