Biden’s Gaza policy has become an electoral liability

After six months of immutable support for Israel in its campaign in Gaza, US President Joe Biden has wavered for the first time.

“Outraged” by the Israeli military’s killing of seven aid workers, one of whom was a US citizen, Mr Biden called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week to tell him that American policy would change unless Israel works towards a ceasefire, or if it continues to fail to protect civilians in Gaza.

The move marked a potential turning point in the conflict, which erupted on October 7 when Hamas militants stormed southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking hundreds of hostages.

Immediately after the phone call, Israel moved to allow more aid into Gaza, which teeters on the brink of famine and where health authorities say more than 33,100 people have been killed.

But for Mr Biden’s critics, his attempt to put pressure on Israel comes as too little, too late, and is offset by the fact the US continues to supply its ally with billions of dollars of military aid.

Where, they asked, was his outrage when about 200 other aid workers were killed? Why has it taken Mr Biden six months to use America's power to force Israel to reduce the civilian death toll?

And why does he still refuse to put conditions on military aid to ensure it is used in a way to avoid civilian casualties?

Progressive senator Bernie Sanders said Mr Biden's occasional sharp words for the Israeli Prime Minister feel empty given continuing overall US support.

“One day the President is 'angry' at Netanyahu, the next day he is 'very angry', the next day he is 'very, very angry'. So what? At the same time, there is support for more military aid [to Israel] in a supplemental bill,” Mr Sanders told Pod Save America.

“You cannot continue to talk about your worries about a humanitarian situation in Gaza and then give Netanyahu another $10 billion, or more bombs. You cannot do that. That is hypocritical.”

The timing of Mr Biden’s call suggests he was acting at least partly out of political self-interest and not merely because of the seven World Central Kitchen aid workers killed in the Israeli air strike.

Doubtless he has been feeling the pressure from his Democratic base. Progressives and Arab Americans alike have vowed not to vote for him in November, even if that means a victory for former president Donald Trump, known for his Muslim travel ban in 2017.

Aside from some occasional sharp words for Israel, Mr Biden has largely sat on his hands while the death toll in Gaza has reached staggering levels.

The electoral numbers are particularly bleak for Mr Biden in key swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, where Democrats have sworn off voting for the President in numbers far greater than he won the states by in 2020.

Mr Biden needs his base to turn out in huge numbers in November if he is to beat Mr Trump.

But as of today, there seems to be little indication that they will, even though another Trump presidency could leave Israel free to take unfettered action in Gaza, and potentially the occupied West Bank.

A lot can happen before the presidential election, but Mr Biden’s actions last week have not immediately placated the base he needs to turn out to vote for him on November 5.

Similarly, it probably won’t do much to endear him to conservatives, many of whom consider his pressure on Mr Netanyahu to be a betrayal of Israel.

“To help his polls in Michigan, Joe Biden just strengthened Hamas's negotiating position. He effectively encouraged Hamas to hold out and not release the hostages. Shameful,” Republican senator Tom Cotton said on X.

Republicans have by and large been happy to stay quiet on how they would handle the Israel-Gaza war differently, borrowing from Napoleon’s adage: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

Mr Trump's Republican Party is even more hawkish than Democrats in supporting Israel and has factions calling for the annihilation of Palestinians in Gaza.

For example, Tim Walberg, a Republican representative from Michigan, said during a recent town hall meeting that Gaza should be treated “like Nagasaki and Hiroshima”, the Japanese cities the US dropped atom bombs on at the end of the Second World War.

And following the phone call with Mr Netanyahu, the Republican-led House Rules Committee announced it would consider a resolution that “opposes efforts to place one-sided pressure on Israel with respect to Gaza, including calls for an immediate ceasefire”.

By doing so little to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza for six months, Mr Biden has left himself little room to manoeuvre now, and any actions he does take will be seen as unsatisfactory by progressives and conservatives alike.