Spare a thought for Britain’s latest endangered species. The wildlife under threat is not some kind of rare bird, but rather the near extinction of many Conservative party MPs.
A Survation poll of 15,000 people suggests that the party might win fewer than 100 seats in the general election anticipated for later this year. The poll also predicts that the Labour party could take more than 400 seats, a 286-seat majority.
Of course, the usual caveats apply. It’s just an opinion poll, although a very large one.
But even before we know the precise date of the general election, 63 Conservative party MPs have already said that they will not be defending their seats. That’s the highest number set to quit since 1997, the year when 72 Tories stood down rather than fight against what became Tony Blair’s electoral landslide.
Back then, Mr Blair’s Labour party won with an overall majority of 179. Doomsayers in the Conservative party fear that, for them, 2024 could be even worse. Beyond the 63 confirmed quitters, others are said to be considering whether to bother trying to run in a contest that they know they are likely to lose. Some heading for the exit door, such as Robert Halfon and James Heappey, are highly regarded former ministers.
The sense, therefore, is of morale at rock bottom within the governing party. Overall, Conservative support is floundering at 19 per cent. Back in the 2019 election, it was just short of 42 per cent.
Prof John Curtice, probably the best known and most respected pollster in the UK, reckons that there is now what he called a “99 per cent chance of Labour forming the next administration”.
The Tories have few friends in the country, facing a number of challenges from different flanks
The chances of the Conservatives reversing their decline are, therefore, seen as minimal. Even if no party secures an overall majority, Labour leader Keir Starmer would probably still be much better placed to become prime minister than Rishi Sunak or any other Conservative party leader.
As Prof Curtice put it: “The Labour party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP [Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party], the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons.”
They have few friends in the country either, facing a number of challenges from different flanks. On the left, Labour is the biggest threat. But in some areas of southern and south-western England in particular, the Conservatives may lose seats to the Liberal Democrats.
Meanwhile on the political right, they have suffered defections to the new Reform party, including the exit of former Conservative party deputy chairman Lee Anderson.
Reform is just the latest vehicle for the populist leadership of Nigel Farage, formerly the leader of the Brexit party and the UK Independence Party. And Reform, again according to some polls, is polling in double figures, leading the Conservative MP Danny Kruger to say that he is “very, very worried” about the threat from the right, with the Farage populists “absolutely killing” the Conservatives.
As the great political cliche goes, the only poll that matters is always the general election itself, possibly in October or November, although there are still rumblings that Mr Sunak might be forced to go to the country earlier.
Between now and election day – whenever it happens – there will be plenty of unsettling political churn. Even without a general election, voters in May will go to the polls in 58 district authority elections plus elections in 18 local unitary authorities and 31 metropolitan districts.
There will also be elections in Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, Tees Valley, the West Midlands, plus the Greater London Authority mayoral and assembly elections.
Taken together, it seems that Mr Sunak’s miserable spring can only get worse. The simple truth is that the Prime Minister is in office but not really in power.
There have also been astonishing missteps. Mr Sunak’s government has produced some dreadfully misguided campaign advertisements.
The most recent of these suggested that London is somehow the UK’s “crime capital”. This video misused film footage of New York as if it were London and involved a bizarre American voiceover.
If you can imagine a remake of the Martin Scorsese movie Mean Streets, written and voiced by a bunch of teenagers, you might have an idea how juvenile this political advertisement on behalf of the Conservative party sounded. Moreover, beyond the crime of any big city, statistically London has fewer incidents of antisocial behaviour and other criminal activity than many other conurbations.
The real problem for all of us is that British politics is rudderless. The Conservative party under Mr Sunak has run out of ideas. They take credit for modest examples of good news, including a decline in inflation, while not accepting some blame for the fact that it rose so sharply in the first place.
From Brexit to migration to the cost-of-living crisis, Mr Sunak appears to have forgotten that it is his party that has been running the UK since 2010. Voters, however, do remember the Conservatives were, and apparently still are, in charge – and that will eventually have electoral consequences.
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
AIDA%20RETURNS
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Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
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The Indoor Cricket World Cup
When: September 16-23
Where: Insportz, Dubai
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
The%20Beekeeper
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Tomb%20Raider%20I%E2%80%93III%20Remastered
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The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe
Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
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Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
WITHIN%20SAND
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Liverpool's all-time goalscorers
Ian Rush 346
Roger Hunt 285
Mohamed Salah 250
Gordon Hodgson 241
Billy Liddell 228
Dubai Rugby Sevens, December 5 -7
World Sevens Series Pools
A – Fiji, France, Argentina, Japan
B – United States, Australia, Scotland, Ireland
C – New Zealand, Samoa, Canada, Wales
D – South Africa, England, Spain, Kenya
Vikram%20Vedha
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Bareilly Ki Barfi
Directed by: Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring: Kriti Sanon, Ayushmann Khurrana, Rajkummar Rao
Three and a half stars
THE DETAILS
Director: Milan Jhaveri
Producer: Emmay Entertainment and T-Series
Cast: John Abraham, Manoj Bajpayee
Rating: 2/5
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
more from Janine di Giovanni
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
No more lice
Defining head lice
Pediculus humanus capitis are tiny wingless insects that feed on blood from the human scalp. The adult head louse is up to 3mm long, has six legs, and is tan to greyish-white in colour. The female lives up to four weeks and, once mature, can lay up to 10 eggs per day. These tiny nits firmly attach to the base of the hair shaft, get incubated by body heat and hatch in eight days or so.
Identifying lice
Lice can be identified by itching or a tickling sensation of something moving within the hair. One can confirm that a person has lice by looking closely through the hair and scalp for nits, nymphs or lice. Head lice are most frequently located behind the ears and near the neckline.
Treating lice at home
Head lice must be treated as soon as they are spotted. Start by checking everyone in the family for them, then follow these steps. Remove and wash all clothing and bedding with hot water. Apply medicine according to the label instructions. If some live lice are still found eight to 12 hours after treatment, but are moving more slowly than before, do not re-treat. Comb dead and remaining live lice out of the hair using a fine-toothed comb.
After the initial treatment, check for, comb and remove nits and lice from hair every two to three days. Soak combs and brushes in hot water for 10 minutes.Vacuum the floor and furniture, particularly where the infested person sat or lay.
Courtesy Dr Vishal Rajmal Mehta, specialist paediatrics, RAK Hospital
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
