Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
March 24, 2024
Hope narrows, then widens, only to narrow again, before fear takes hold that all diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza are failing.
One of the main challenges in this regard has been to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, on the same page. Indeed, an existential battle rages between the two men, each believing that winning this war can help them achieve their respective ideological goals.
The problem lies in the inability of negotiators to influence either leader at this juncture of the war.
The administration of US President Joe Biden is unable to use its leverage over the Israeli government. The Israeli public continues to support the goal of eliminating Hamas and crushing its military leadership – and because it’s an election year in the US, that could cost Mr Biden the presidency if the situation is mishandled.
Nor are the key Middle Eastern players involved in the negotiations able to put pressure on Mr Sinwar to prioritise Palestinian national interests over his ideological battle. Indeed, Mr Sinwar views the hostages captured on October 7 as bargaining chips for himself, his group, and the Palestinian future.
This is the spoke in the diplomacy wheel that led US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to return to the Middle East for the sixth time, delicately grasping the reins of engagement with all concerned parties, hoping to accomplish the breakthrough that Mr Biden can show his fellow Americans in a challenging re-election campaign.
Mr Blinken is, however, scaling back his administration’s hopes for a grand bargain. He is merely seeking temporary solutions through soft pressure, fearing that harsh pressure would yield adverse results for the White House.
The Israelis have targeted Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza.
Sinwar views the hostages captured on October 7 as bargaining chips for himself, his group, and the Palestinian future
America’s top diplomat arrived in the region, armed with his administration’s readiness to support a resolution in the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire – for the first time after the White House’s consistent blockage of any such attempt in the past nearly six months.
On the one hand, this signifies a widening gap between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government. On the other hand, the US has made it clear to its Arab allies that it links the ceasefire with the release of hostages.
The US proposition also requires Hamas’s co-operation and acquiescence to a compromise solution entailing its disarmament in Rafah and the organised withdrawal of all armed forces, numbering in the thousands, from Rafah specifically and Gaza as a whole, as a key to sparing civilian lives. The Biden administration concurs with the Israeli government on the goal of ending Hamas’s military presence in Gaza. But the question of “how?” remains.
The alternative to Israel’s potential incursion in Rafah – aimed at eradicating Hamas’s military infrastructure – is, in the American view, for those talking to Mr Sinwar to persuade him to agree to leave Gaza and release the hostages, thereby saving Palestinians from annihilation and forced displacement.
The problem is that Mr Sinwar is the one holding the hostage card, which he wants to use for major bargains that serve his interests. He has so far refused to heed the demands of those talking to him. Given his intransigence, the key Arab nations would be better positioned to help revitalise the Palestinian Authority by pushing for internal reforms that could empower it to manage post-war Gaza one day.
During Mr Blinken’s visit to Cairo and his six-way meetings, he was made aware of the cost of the war expanding beyond Gaza. One of Egypt’s priorities lies in preventing the displacement of Palestinians to Sinai. This is a nightmare scenario for Egypt, but also for authorities in Amman who view such a development as a precursor to the forced displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank to Jordan.
Arab officials also expressed their readiness to talk to Israel on a roadmap towards a Palestinian state that is built on reforms, transparency and the involvement of a new generation in its construction.
Palestinians perform the first Friday prayers of Ramadan near the ruins of a mosque in Rafah, southern Gaza. Reuters
A Palestinian man reads the Quran as he waits to break his fast in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza. Reuters
Children wait to receive food in Rafah. The UN has warned that many in Gaza are facing famine. Reuters
Palestinians break their fast amid the rubble of their destroyed home in Rafah. Reuters
Displaced Palestinians in Rafah decorate their homes with sheets to mark the holy month. AFP
Palestinians shop for Ramadan lanterns in Rafah. AFP
A displaced Palestinian woman bakes bread for iftar in Rafah. AFP
A family break fast amid the ruins of their home in Deir al-Balah, the central Gaza Strip. AFP
Palestinians share an iftar meal at a camp in Rafah, the southern Gaza Strip. AFP
A displaced Palestinian man prays in Rafah, the southern Gaza Strip. AFP
Palestinians pray taraweeh on the rubble of Rafah's Al Huda Mosque, which was destroyed in Israeli air strikes. Getty Images
Palestinians walk past kiosks set up next to destroyed buildings in Al Nusairat refugee camp, the Gaza Strip EPA
Palestinians collect food before the first iftar of Ramadan in Rafah. AFP
Palestinians gather to collect food in Rafah, the southern Gaza Strip. AFP
A Palestinian child plays with a sparkler in Rafah, in southern Gaza, on the eve of Ramadan. AFP
Displaced Palestinians in Rafah decorate their tent in preparation for Ramadan. Getty Images
Palestinian children carry traditional lanterns in Rafah on the eve of Ramadan. AFP
Children play at a camp for displaced Palestinians in Rafah. AFP
A girl plays with a cat at a camp in Rafah. AFP
A child carries a small Ramadan lantern in Gaza city. AFP
A displaced Palestinian child sells handmade Ramadan lanterns in Rafah. AFP
A Palestinian street vendor sells traditional 'fanous' lanterns in Rafah. AFP
A child touches decorative lights and lanterns at a shop in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. AFP
In reality, however, the veto power over these aspirations remains in the hands of both Mr Sinwar and Mr Netanyahu.
How will the Hamas leader negotiate? So far, he has placed his own fate, and that of Hamas, above the fate of the Palestinian people, who have borne the brunt of the war. Mr Sinwar is banking on a shift in American public opinion, as well as in Israeli public sentiment and its opposition to Mr Netanyahu, for a breakthrough.
However, he is mistaken on both counts.
The October 7 attacks have helped advance the ambitions of extremist members in the Israeli government that include Gaza’s widespread destruction and the displacement of Palestinians. But where will ordinary Gazans go if they are not forcibly relocated to Sinai or Arab countries?
Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of former US president Donald Trump and himself a former White House official, suggested turning Gaza’s waterfront into a major tourist attraction and exploiting its oil and gas resources. He also called for the relocation of Gazans to the Negev desert and other Arab countries, rather than allowing them to remain in the territory.
This would essentially amount to a land grab proposed by someone who doesn’t conceal his allegiance to Israel, even if it’s at the expense of ordinary Palestinians who have already suffered a great deal due to Mr Sinwar’s political miscalculations. Mr Kushner’s remarks will have left many deeply concerned, given that there is a good chance he will handle the Middle East file for a possible second Trump term.
For now, the race between diplomacy and military aggression continues – with the fate of millions of Palestinians hanging in the balance.
TICKETS
For tickets for the two-day Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League (MPBL) event, entitled Dubai Invasion 2019, on September 27 and 28 go to www.meraticket.com.
Red flags
Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
David Einhorn closed out 2018 with his biggest annual loss ever for the 22-year-old Greenlight Capital.
The firm’s main hedge fund fell 9 per cent in December, extending this year’s decline to 34 percent, according to an investor update viewed by Bloomberg.
Greenlight posted some of the industry’s best returns in its early years, but has stumbled since losing more than 20 per cent in 2015.
Other value-investing managers have also struggled, as a decade of historically low interest rates and the rise of passive investing and quant trading pushed growth stocks past their inexpensive brethren. Three Bays Capital and SPO Partners & Co., which sought to make wagers on undervalued stocks, closed in 2018. Mr Einhorn has repeatedly expressed his frustration with the poor performance this year, while remaining steadfast in his commitment to value investing.
Greenlight, which posted gains only in May and October, underperformed both the broader market and its peers in 2018. The S&P 500 Index dropped 4.4 per cent, including dividends, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, an early indicator of industry performance, fell 7 per cent through December. 28.
At the start of the year, Greenlight managed $6.3 billion in assets, according to a regulatory filing. By May, the firm was down to $5.5bn.
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours.
The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.
When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend are January-February and September-October. Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.
Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.