India is now officially the world’s fastest-growing large economy, as well as the world’s most populous country. But New Delhi’s sights are set still higher. The country’s finance ministry released a report at the end of January confidently predicting that India, currently the world’s fifth-largest national economy (excluding the supra-national EU), will climb up to third position by the end of the decade. A number of major US private financial institutions have since endorsed this forecast, highlighting India as a top investment opportunity, especially given mainland China’s de-prioritisation of high growth and disengagement with western capital.
Far less attention has been paid to an even more ambitious goal stated by India’s chief economic adviser during the original report’s release. Anantha Nageswaran announced that the government intended to achieve “developed” country status by 2047, a century after independence from the UK. In order for this to happen, India’s Human Development Index (HDI) status will have to climb from medium, past high, to very high. Similarly, per capita incomes would have to increase sevenfold from lower-middle income status to reach the high-income bracket.
This is a far, far harder task than increasing the overall size of the economy, in part because one has very little automatic impact on the other. Despite steady growth in the size of India’s economy (both in absolute terms and relative to other countries) over the past three decades, India’s current ranking for inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) is 108 out of 156, and 132 out of 190 in terms of per capita income. In other words, although most Indians have been lifted out of dire poverty, their incomes, education levels and life expectancies remain very modest in comparison to the average person born into a highly developed economy.
Although the contrast in India’s case is particularly extreme, the underlying problem is near-universal. Decades of evidence shows that turning a developing middle-income country into a developed high-income one is far, far harder than lifting up low-income countries into middle income. This is known as the “middle-income trap”, which even China, although close, is not yet certain to escape. Despite decades of explosive growth, China still only ranks 61st in the world for per capita income, and 67th for IHDI. And now, between the shrinking size of China’s ageing workforce and its new non-growth-focused policy framework, it is unclear how much forward momentum the country has.
Per capita incomes would have to increase sevenfold to reach the high-income bracket
But making sense of development in India is complicated by the fact the country has some of the largest internal regional disparities to be found anywhere in the world, and rapid economic growth has only widened these differences. The state of Goa, for example, has the highest per capita income in India, comparable to Colombia and Ecuador, which are “upper-middle income” countries. This figure is almost ten times that of Bihar, which puts the state at the level of “low income” countries like Eritrea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Tragically, average life expectancies correspond with those disparities: Goa’s is at 73.3 years, and Bihar’s is almost a decade shorter.
The problem is that India’s highest-income and most developed areas, like Goa, are amongst its smallest. Although India has 36 states and union territories, the twelve largest states together hold 80 per cent of the national population. Tellingly, none of these big states, including star performers like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have climbed above lower-middle income status and a medium level of HDI. Given that Bihar’s population of 130 million is almost 10 times that of Goa, even big gains by Goa (like moving from “high” to “very high” levels of HDI) do very little to lift India as a whole. This means India must focus its efforts on the places where the bulk of its population lives in order to make dramatic overall improvements.
Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, with close to a quarter of a billion people, has particularly low levels of income, life expectancy and education, as do neighbouring Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. These three adjoining states hold a staggering 450 million people together and represent the largest cluster of poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition and lower life expectancy in India.
Although the central government has significantly expanded welfare schemes such as health insurance, and is increasingly enabling online enrolment, physical access remains highly problematic. Transport networks remain highly underdeveloped, and while primary schools and clinics are insufficient and badly under-resourced. In many cases, marginalised populations have been conditioned by dominant ones to not compete with them for access. It is hard to imagine progress of the kind envisioned until the complex challenges of these three states in particular are tackled, requiring not just the reallocation of resources, but reforms to governance structures and the involvement of grassroots social movements.
But if accelerating development in these highly challenged regions does in fact become a top-level policy priority at the state and central government levels, India does enjoy three major enablers. As noted in one of my earlier columns, the government and Reserve Bank have done an outstanding job of maintaining stability in the face of global economic volatility, while much of South Asia has struggled to remain afloat.
Second, India’s combination of high growth and a large, young labour pool provide tremendous potential, especially if training and education are made available. And third, mobile broadband penetration India’s massive investment in digital public infrastructure paves the way for those even at the bottom of society to benefit from inclusion with banking, education, governance and a rapidly expanding welfare net.
India’s escape into broad-based prosperity is far from impossible, but it is certainly not inevitable either. Sustained efforts by every level of government require broad-based public support. India’s voters (the country is in an election year), especially relatively well-off ones, must understand these policies as a vital element of India’s long-term economic success, rather than dismiss them as populist pandering.
One of the most important elements of the escape from the middle-income trap is the transition from state-led and export-led growth to domestic consumption-led growth. That kind of spending by individuals and families is simply not possible until hundreds of millions more Indian households can experience financial security, which in turn is not possible without access to health, education and a regular income.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Ten10 Cricket League
Venue and schedule Sharjah Cricket Stadium, December 14 to 17
Teams
Maratha Arabians Leading player: Virender Sehwag; Top picks: Mohammed Amir, Imad Wasim; UAE players: Shaiman Anwar, Zahoor Khan
Bengal Lions Leading player: Sarfraz Ahmed; Top picks: Sunil Narine, Mustafizur Rahman; UAE players: Mohammed Naveed, Rameez Shahzad
Kerala Kings Leading player: Eoin Morgan; Top picks: Kieron Pollard, Sohail Tanvir; UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Imran Haider
Pakhtoons Leading player: Shahid Afridi; Top picks: Fakhar Zaman, Tamim Iqbal; UAE players: Amjad Javed, Saqlain Haider
Punjabi Legends Leading player: Shoaib Malik; Top picks: Hasan Ali, Chris Jordan; UAE players: Ghulam Shabber, Shareef Asadullah
Team Sri Lanka Cricket Will be made up of Colombo players who won island’s domestic limited-overs competition
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Timeline
1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line
1962
250 GTO is unveiled
1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company
1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens
1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made
1987
F40 launched
1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent
2002
The Enzo model is announced
2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi
2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled
2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives
2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company
2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street
2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Where to Find Me by Alba Arikha
Alma Books
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Autumn international scores
Saturday, November 24
Italy 3-66 New Zealand
Scotland 14-9 Argentina
England 37-18 Australia
Heather, the Totality
Matthew Weiner,
Canongate
Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Duminy's Test career in numbers
Tests 46; Runs 2,103; Best 166; Average 32.85; 100s 6; 50s 8; Wickets 42; Best 4-47
POSSIBLE ENGLAND EURO 2020 SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope, Dean Henderson.
Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Kieran Trippier, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Harry Maguire, Tyrone Mings, Ben Chilwell, Fabian Delph.
Midfielders: Declan Rice, Harry Winks, Jordan Henderson, Ross Barkley, Mason Mount, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Forwards: Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Tammy Abraham, Callum Hudson-Odoi.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Wayne Rooney's career
Everton (2002-2004)
- Appearances: 48
- Goals: 17
Manchester United (2004-2017)
- Appearances: 496
- Goals: 253
England (2003-)
- Appearances: 119
- Goals: 53
MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned
Fight card
1. Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) v Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)
2. Featherweight: Hussein Salim (IRQ) v Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)
3. Catchweight 80kg: Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Khamza Yamadaev (RUS)
4. Lightweight: Ho Taek-oh (KOR) v Ronald Girones (CUB)
5. Lightweight: Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) v Damien Lapilus (FRA)
6. Bantamweight: Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) v Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)
7. Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)
8. Flyweight: Shannon Ross (TUR) v Donovon Freelow (USA)
9. Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Dan Collins (GBR)
10. Catchweight 73kg: Islam Mamedov (RUS) v Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM)
11. Bantamweight World title: Jaures Dea (CAM) v Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
12. Flyweight World title: Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)
Ibrahim's play list
Completed an electrical diploma at the Adnoc Technical Institute
Works as a public relations officer with Adnoc
Apart from the piano, he plays the accordion, oud and guitar
His favourite composer is Johann Sebastian Bach
Also enjoys listening to Mozart
Likes all genres of music including Arabic music and jazz
Enjoys rock groups Scorpions and Metallica
Other musicians he likes are Syrian-American pianist Malek Jandali and Lebanese oud player Rabih Abou Khalil
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Match info
Costa Rica 0
Serbia 1
Kolarov (56')
