Former prime minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the Remembrance Sunday service at the Cenotaph in London in November 2022. PA Images
Former prime minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the Remembrance Sunday service at the Cenotaph in London in November 2022. PA Images
Former prime minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the Remembrance Sunday service at the Cenotaph in London in November 2022. PA Images
Former prime minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the Remembrance Sunday service at the Cenotaph in London in November 2022. PA Images

Opinion

Comment

Will it take Boris Johnson to save the Tories in this year's general election?

  • English
  • Arabic
Damien McElroy is London bureau chief at The National

March 18, 2024

British political history tends to draw its parallels along party lines.

So when the Conservative party looks for lessons, it tends to cite past experiences of Australia’s Liberal-National coalition or the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada.

It’s the same with the Labour party and the equivalent centre-left parties in the Westminster parliamentary systems elsewhere in the world. In fact, when Labour poll campaign manager Morgan McSweeney wants to drill down on the dangers of complacency in the forthcoming general election, he has a ready example from Australia’s Labour and its past failures to convert poll leads into power.

After the events of last week saw a further significant erosion in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s grip on power, there is a historic example from one of Australia’s Labour Party heroes that could prove instructive for the Conservatives and shape British politics this year.

The late Bob Hawke, who was the biggest political personality that Australia has seen in living memory, became prime minister in 1983 as a result of a whipsaw turn of events that upended a general election in a matter of weeks. Could it be that somewhere lurking just outside of London, former prime minister Boris Johnson is studying the template particularly closely? Here’s how it would work.

The man who was supposed to run as Australian Labour’s prime ministerial candidate in 1983 was opposition leader Bill Hayden. But a by-election went badly for his party at the end of 1982, and Mr Hawke pounced against his rival. On the day that Mr Hayden resigned, then-prime minister Malcolm Fraser of the Liberal Party triggered a general election. He hoped to capitalise on a parallel Labour intra-party leadership election.

Instead, Mr Hawke was installed by acclamation from Labour MPs, and the general election became a two-man race that Mr Hawke won handily.

Then-Australian prime minister Bob Hawke and his wife Hazel host then-Prince and Princess of Wales in Canberra in March 1983. Getty Images
Then-Australian prime minister Bob Hawke and his wife Hazel host then-Prince and Princess of Wales in Canberra in March 1983. Getty Images
Bob Hawke was a renowned larrikin in Aussie politics. His British equivalent is not obvious, but Boris Johnson comes close

Mr Sunak this week said he would not hold a general election on May 2 when there are local elections that are pretty much nationwide. Those votes are expected to land like a tsunami against the Conservatives. That is why this is a key date in the course of the year.

Mr Sunak’s party has already suffered historic-scale reverses in individual by-elections, such as the 28.5 per cent loss in the recent vote in Wellingborough. That result rivalled a 1994 defeat under then-Conservative prime minister John Major that set the stage for his devastating wipe-out in 1997.

However, Mr Sunak has just a few months, perhaps even only a few weeks, on his side – not the three years that Mr Major had at his disposal.

As audacious as Mr Hawke’s power play was in 1983, it would be seismic for the Conservative party to switch out its leader now. And it may not work either. Mr Hawke, after all, only had to win as opposition leader. Moreover, anyone replacing Mr Sunak would have to lead a clapped-out and feudally divided governing husk of a political movement into a dramatic revival.

Yet listen to the words of Justine Greening, a centrist former Conservative cabinet minister who was spat out by the party’s civil war years ago.

Asked about reports of a push to replace Mr Sunak on Friday night, she was clear-eyed. “It does feel that [with] the polls, as they are, this is getting unsustainable,” she said on the BBC. “You can’t just bump along in the teens, or the low 20s. If MPs are starting to get around a particular alternative, then maybe things can move quite fast.”

So if there is a quick shift, how could this really happen?

The particular scenario put to Ms Greening was that a member of Mr Sunak’s cabinet could take over. This would involve a visit to Downing Street by what is known to the UK political scene as the men in grey suits. These senior sages would stand over the Prime Minister to force the inevitable recognition that the game was up.

There are plenty of parliamentarians who could carry out this task.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson poses with Sea Cadets during a visit to BAE systems in Barrow-in-Furness. PA
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson poses with Sea Cadets during a visit to BAE systems in Barrow-in-Furness. PA
Mr Johnson views an armed response vehicle during a visit with members of Thames Valley Police at Milton Keynes Police Station. Getty Images
Mr Johnson views an armed response vehicle during a visit with members of Thames Valley Police at Milton Keynes Police Station. Getty Images
Mr Johnson and Britain's Home Secretary Priti Patel meet newly-recruited officers at Milton Keynes Police Station. AFP
Mr Johnson and Britain's Home Secretary Priti Patel meet newly-recruited officers at Milton Keynes Police Station. AFP
Mr Johnson and Ms Patel are shown the Critical Incident Desk during their visit with members of Thames Valley Police. AFP
Mr Johnson and Ms Patel are shown the Critical Incident Desk during their visit with members of Thames Valley Police. AFP
Mr Johnson on the scene following a drugs-related raid by Metropolitan Police officers in West Norwood, London. AP
Mr Johnson on the scene following a drugs-related raid by Metropolitan Police officers in West Norwood, London. AP
Mr Johnson with Stephen House, acting commissioner of the Metropolitan Police service, during a visit to a police station in London. Getty Images
Mr Johnson with Stephen House, acting commissioner of the Metropolitan Police service, during a visit to a police station in London. Getty Images
Mr Johnson leaves the area following the raid in West Norwood. AP
Mr Johnson leaves the area following the raid in West Norwood. AP
Mr Johnson meets Vimala, a police horse, during a visit to a Metropolitan Police station in London. AFP
Mr Johnson meets Vimala, a police horse, during a visit to a Metropolitan Police station in London. AFP
Mr Johnson gives a thumbs-up during a visit to Henbury Farm in north Dorset, where Wessex Internet are laying fibre optics. Getty Images
Mr Johnson gives a thumbs-up during a visit to Henbury Farm in north Dorset, where Wessex Internet are laying fibre optics. Getty Images
Mr Johnson and Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries in a mole plough during the visit to Henbury Farm. Getty Images
Mr Johnson and Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries in a mole plough during the visit to Henbury Farm. Getty Images
Mr Johnson and Ms Dorries sit in the cabin of the plough. PA
Mr Johnson and Ms Dorries sit in the cabin of the plough. PA

The stout figure of James Heappey, the armed forces minister, became the 62nd Conservative MP to announce that he would not contest the next election. To go back to the reference to Mr Major’s fate, that figure is just sort of the 70-plus who stood down in 1997. Many are jumping before they think they will be pushed out by the voters. They are free, therefore, to take destiny into their own hands.

So it is possible to foresee a quick unravelling that results in the defenestration of Mr Sunak before he would rally any kind of rear-guard action. Penny Mordaunt, the leader of parliamentary business, is in the frame as the alternative consensus candidate this week.

The key to a changeover at this stage is that it has to be done without the long-lasting internal party procedure; Mr Hawke rose because his Labour Party did not bring its own voting process into action. With the poll numbers so bad and the judgment of the electorate closing in, it is possible that the Conservatives struggle to get to the trigger point until the last moment.

Mr Hawke was a renowned larrikin in Aussie politics. His British equivalent is not obvious, but Mr Johnson comes close.

Unlike Mr Hawke in 1983, Mr Johnson already has a track record of winning impossible elections. If the party acclaimed the once disgraced former leader in an act of desperation, his resignation from Westminster could be reversed. As he mused on leaving office, the herd can shift.

An election could open up a seat like his first constituency Henley, which is becoming vacant. The awkward switchback in No 10 would not be an issue in the process of an election. The challenge to the system that Mr Johnson posed in the 2019 vote worked with voters. It was the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic that caught him out and forced him to step down.

With the situation being so volatile in the Conservative party, maybe even Boris can bob back to the top.

Tomorrow 2021
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  • Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
  • Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
  • Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.

Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching

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The biog

Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi

Favourite TV show: That 70s Show

Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving

Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can

Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home

Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big

Expert input

If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?

“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett

“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche

“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox

“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite

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“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra

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Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

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Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

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Brief scoreline:

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6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh195,000 1,400m.

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7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m.

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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UJDA CHAMAN

Produced: Panorama Studios International

Directed: Abhishek Pathak

Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla

Rating: 3.5 /5 stars

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

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Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

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Tips for job-seekers
  • Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
  • Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.

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What the law says

Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.

“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.

“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”

If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.

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  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
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  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
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Kerb weight: 1580kg

Price: From Dh750k

On sale: via special order

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  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
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Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
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GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

MATCH INFO

Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)

Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm

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Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana

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Tickets for the 2019 Asian Cup are available online, via www.asiancup2019.com

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How to help

Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
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Mia Man’s tips for fermentation

- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut

- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.

- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.

- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.

 

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In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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While you're here
Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

Brief scores:

Southampton 2

Armstrong 13', Soares 20'

Manchester United 2

Lukaku 33', Herrera 39'

Plastic tipping point
While you're here
UAE currency
Updated: March 18, 2024, 7:00 AM`