Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
January 14, 2024
Electoral pressures are making it difficult for US President Joe Biden to endure further blows from the Houthis in the Red Sea and the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq.
Yet his administration is keen to convey to Iran that military escalation against its proxies – the US and UK have conducted strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen – doesn’t imply a shift towards full-fledged war against Tehran. Washington is keen to prevent Israel’s ongoing operation inside Gaza from escalating into a regional war.
There have even been US-Iran back-channel talks in this regard. But before delving into America’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East last week, which included engagement on Lebanon, it is important to analyse the developments in the Red Sea.
The US-UK strikes carry major economic and geopolitical implications. The Houthis, under the pretext of solidarity with Gaza, have since November intensified attacks on ships and tankers in the Red Sea, endangering the safety of maritime navigation.
A statement from the US Central Command after the strikes stated that they were aimed at undermining the Houthis’ capabilities to continue such attacks. Importantly, the statement said the strikes were unrelated to Operation Prosperity Guardian, which comprises more than 20 countries operating in the Red Sea, Bab Al Mandeb strait and the Gulf of Aden.
Most countries expressed understanding towards the strikes, with the exception of Russia, which called for a UN Security Council session. The global majority is, after all, concerned about the Houthi attacks’ impact on the global economy. Yet there is also apprehension about a potential US-UK confrontation with Iran, which is accused of providing the Houthis with missiles and drones.
A pivotal question to be asked is whether it is Iran, as a state, or entities Tehran backs that are fuelling Houthi aggression against international shipping. Alternatively, it could be that the Houthis, much like Hamas in Gaza, have chosen to deviate from Iranian oversight, acting independently.
Palestinian Muhammad Al Durra with his children in the ruins of a house in Rafah where they sheltered on January 11, 2024. EPA
Family and friends at the funerals of journalists Hamza Al Dahdouh and Mustafa Thuraya on January 7, 2024 in Rafah, Gaza. Getty Images
Palestinians mourn relatives killed by Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip outside a mortuary in Khan Younis January 4, 2024. AP Photo
Displaced Palestinians queue to bake bread at a camp in the Muwasi area of Rafah, Gaza Strip, on December 23, 2023. AP Photo
Palestinians queue for food in Rafah, the Gaza Strip, on December 20, 2023. AP Photo
The ruins of Rafah on December 14, 2023. AFP
Palestinians wounded in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip arrive at a hospital in Khan Younis on December 8, 2023. AP Photo
Palestinians flee Israeli bombing along the Salaheddine Road in the Zeitoun district of Gaza city on November 28, 2023. AFP
A Red Cross vehicle takes Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip into Egypt in Rafah on November 25, 2023. AP
The ruins of buildings in Gaza city on November 24, 2023, as a temporary truce between Israel and Hamas took effect. AP Photo
A woman and her cat return home to eastern Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip during the first hours of a four-day truce between Israel and Hamas forces on November 24, 2023. AFP
Mourning the dead of Israeli bombardment outside the mortuary at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis on November 14, 2023. AFP
Civilians and rescuers look for survivors in the rubble of a building after Israeli bombing of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on November 12, 2023. AFP
November 7, 2023, a month to the day after Hamas attacked Israel, a victim of an Israeli bombardment in Rafah is moved from the rubble. AFP
Searching the rubble after Israeli air strikes on the town of Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on October 26, 2023. AP Photo
Mourning the Kotz family at their funeral in Gan Yavne, Israel, on October 17, 2023. AP Photo
An Israeli firefighter composes himself after he and his colleagues extinguished cars set on fire by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip in Ashkelon, Israel, on October 9, 2023. AP Photo
Palestinians with the wreckage of an Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence east of the city of Khan Younis on October 7, 2023, the day Hamas forces swept unopposed into Israel. AP Photo
Israeli police officers evacuate a woman and a child from a site hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip, in Ashkelon, southern Israel, on October 7, 2023. AP Photo
There is readiness among Arab and Islamic nations backed by unequivocal guarantees that sustainable peace will lead to prosperity in the Middle East
Despite the Iranian regime’s warning that these strikes could fuel instability in the region, it will stop short of plunging itself into a military confrontation in the Red Sea. However, dangers will persist in these waters and on the Lebanon-Israel border until Tehran decides to contain the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the current phase in the international efforts to contain the Netanyahu government’s operation inside Gaza involves western-Arab “dual guarantees” to Israel in exchange for a commitment on the two-state solution. Their objective extends beyond merely securing temporary ceasefires and seeking a long-term settlement on the Arab-Israeli conflict, particularly the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The essence of the proposal lies in the idea that, in exchange for the US and Europe guaranteeing Israel’s acceptance of a two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state, Arab guarantees for Palestine as a peaceful state would be unequivocal.
One obstacle may lie in intra-Palestinian relations given the historical disputes among various factions and movements. Another major dilemma lies in the Israeli political establishment’s rejection of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
This poses a challenge for the US. In its proposals, the Biden administration aims to emphasise that the reward for enduring peace for Israel is far more valuable than the costs of wars and the siege mentality. There is readiness among Arab and Islamic nations backed by unequivocal guarantees that sustainable peace will lead to prosperity in the Middle East.
But if Israel’s obstinacy against the two-state solution persists, and if Israel insists on involving the US in a war with Iran or other conflicts, the American people will not approve, irrespective of whether the administration is Democratic or Republican. This is the main message that Israel is getting from the Americans.
In other words, what Israel is hearing from the Biden administration is that expanded and exceptional security guarantees for Israel will ensure its security, while Arab guarantees will ensure its prosperity, but all this is contingent on its acceptance of the two-state solution.
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, right, meets US special envoy Amos Hochstein in Beirut on Thursday. EPA
Right now, from the devastation in Gaza due to Israeli actions, and the displacement of more than a million Palestinians, to the illusions and equations of Palestinian victory or defeat, and Houthi aggression, it is evident that the region is teetering on the brink.
In such a scenario, it’s worth mentioning that, even as Lebanon remains in the eye of the storm – as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah continue – it appears to be moving away from it.
For Beirut, the choice is between war with Israel and diplomacy, with efforts on the latter being led by US special envoy Amos Hochstein. The interpretation of Mr Hochstein’s latest visit to Lebanon, based on my conversations with informed sources, leads me to several conclusions.
First, he has stated that no one desires war. Second, the choice between war and diplomacy is not open-ended, but the Israeli government is willing to halt its aggression on the border if Resolution 1701, which aims to end the 2006 Lebanon War, is implemented and Hezbollah retreats to 10km beyond the so-called Blue Line.
Today, the proposal is to not completely freeze the diplomatic option until after a complete ceasefire in Gaza – as demanded by Hezbollah – but to continue reviving diplomatic prospects and implementing Resolution 1701 while the concerned parties work towards a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza and negotiate the release of Israeli hostages under Hamas custody.
These negotiations are expected take a transitional period of three months, assuming, of course, that diplomacy prevails over war in the fateful race between these two options.
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results Lost to Oman by eight runs Beat Namibia by three wickets Lost to Oman by 12 runs Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Results
6.30pm Madjani Stakes Rated Conditions (PA) I Dh160,000 I 1,900m I Winner: Mawahib, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
7.05pm Maiden Dh150,000 I 1,400m I Winner One Season, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
7.40pm: Maiden Dh150,000 I 2,000m I Winner Street Of Dreams, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
8.15pm Dubai Creek Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,600m I Winner Heavy Metal, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm The Entisar Listed I Dh250,000 I 2,000m I Winner Etijaah, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
9.25pm The Garhoud Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,200m I Winner Muarrab, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
10pm Handicap I Dh160,000 I 1,600m I Winner Sea Skimmer, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara
He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada
Father of two sons, grandfather of six
Plays golf once a week
Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family
Walks for an hour every morning
Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India
2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Kalra's feat
Becomes fifth batsman to score century in U19 final
Becomes second Indian to score century in U19 final after Unmukt Chand in 2012
Scored 122 in youth Test on tour of England
Bought by Delhi Daredevils for base price of two million Indian rupees (Dh115,000) in 2018 IPL auction
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
Six things you need to know about UAE Women’s Special Olympics football team
Several girls started playing football at age four
They describe sport as their passion
The girls don’t dwell on their condition
They just say they may need to work a little harder than others
When not in training, they play football with their brothers and sisters
The girls want to inspire others to join the UAE Special Olympics teams
Coal Black Mornings
Brett Anderson
Little Brown Book Group
Five films to watch
Castle in the Sky (1986)
Grave of the Fireflies (1988)
Only Yesterday (1991)
Pom Poki (1994)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (2013)
Manchester City (0) v Liverpool (3)
Uefa Champions League, quarter-final, second leg
Where: Etihad Stadium
When: Tuesday, 10.45pm
Live on beIN Sports HD
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m
10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm Well Of Wisdom
7.05pm Summrghand
7.40pm Laser Show
8.15pm Angel Alexander
8.50pm Benbatl
9.25pm Art Du Val
10pm: Beyond Reason
Dubai Women's Tour teams
Agolico BMC
Andy Schleck Cycles-Immo Losch
Aromitalia Basso Bikes Vaiano
Cogeas Mettler Look
Doltcini-Van Eyck Sport
Hitec Products – Birk Sport
Kazakhstan National Team
Kuwait Cycling Team
Macogep Tornatech Girondins de Bordeaux
Minsk Cycling Club
Pannonia Regional Team (Fehérvár)
Team Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Team Ciclotel
UAE Women’s Team
Under 23 Kazakhstan Team
Wheel Divas Cycling Team
