Just after sunset on the second day of 2024, a missile shattered the calm of a south Beirut evening, ripping into a residential building and killing Hamas deputy leader Saleh Al Arouri and six other militants. The strike, allegedly carried out by Israel, marked the deadliest attack outside Gaza since Hamas’s horrifying October 7 assault and possibly the start of a more dynamic third phase of the war.
First came a huge bombing campaign intended to destroy Hamas infrastructure and drive out civilians, then Israeli forces moved into Gaza and entered the group’s warren of tunnels. Now, with Hamas beleaguered in Gaza, Israel seems to think it’s time to expand the playing field.
Many fear the Beirut strike could kick off a tit-for-tat escalation that engulfs the Middle East. Former Nato chief James Stavridis argues that the chance of a regional war just doubled, to “30 per cent”. “This is a conflict that could easily metastasise,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on the weekend.
I hate to break it to you, Antony, but we’re already there.
Regular attacks in the Red Sea, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, along with Gaza, mean that this has been a five-front war for more than a month. And this excludes the West Bank, where attacks by Israeli forces, such as the deadly Israeli strike on Sunday, have killed hundreds of Palestinians, and Iran, where a terror attack last week killed more than 100 people.
ISIS soon claimed that bombing, and it followed up by calling for lone wolf attacks across the West in support of Palestinians. An attack on US troops in Syria last week brought the tally of Iran-backed assaults on US positions in Iraq and Syria to 120. This time the US responded, taking out a commander of the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces, Abu Taqwa, with a strike on Baghdad.
Hezbollah promptly responded to that by sending its Iraq commander back to Baghdad to co-ordinate further strikes on US targets. Persistent attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in the Red Sea have dented the global maritime economy, and the US has also responded there – persuading 20 allies to join its coalition to enable continued Red Sea shipping. Iran, too, has taken a stand, sending its lone warship to the Red Sea to support the Houthis.
In the coming days, expected US strikes on Houthi bases in Yemen may add yet another front to this conflict. And that’s not all. Hamas has vowed to avenge Al Arouri’s death, while Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said a response was inevitable. True to his word, on Saturday the group fired more than 60 missiles into northern Israel. On Monday, Israel hit back with a series of strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
However you slice it, this is already a regional war, maybe even a global one – and the worst is yet to come.
It may be that as long as Turkey pays no price, it will continue to stretch the distance between itself and its western allies
US officials’ defence of Israel’s Beirut assassination seemed to suggest Israel is free to go after its enemies wherever it wants. David Barnea, head of the Israeli spy agency Mossad, compared the situation to Israel’s quest to kill Palestinian militants for the murder of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics. Over many years, Israeli agents assassinated Palestinians in Rome, Paris, Nicosia, Lebanon and beyond.
So, where next? Targeting Hamas operatives in Qatar seems unlikely, not in the least because Doha is overseeing hostage talks. Hamas has command centres in Turkey, and it’s not much of a stretch to envision Israel plotting a covert attack on Turkish soil. No surprise, then, that on the same day of the Beirut strike, Turkish authorities arrested nearly three dozen people across Turkey and charged them with spying for Mossad.
After the October 7 assault, I predicted in these pages that the US and Israel would pressure Ankara to cut ties with Hamas and hand over its leaders. Now, with the war expanding its footprint, that pressure is building.
In comments aired last month on Israeli TV, Ronen Bar, head of Israeli security agency Shin Bet, said Israel was determined to kill Hamas leaders “in every location, in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar”. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Israel against such a step. “They will be doomed to pay a price they cannot recover from,” he said.
Mr Blinken visited Istanbul on the weekend and met Mr Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, aiming to calm Gaza tensions and ensure Ankara’s approval for Sweden’s Nato membership. Just as Mr Blinken’s plane touched down, the State Department announced a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture of Hamas’s financiers, several of whom are thought to be in Turkey.
This may be mainly for voter consumption in the lead-up to local elections in March. The majority of Turks are pro-Palestinian, which explains the wave of boycotts and rallies. Meanwhile, Turkish-Israeli trade increased more than a third in December, with some government-linked businesses benefiting from the bump. This seems a fitting way to enter 2024, which marks 75 years since Turkey become the first Muslim-majority state to recognise the state of Israel.
Ankara surely wants to avoid imperilling its budding economic recovery, thus the threat of US sanctions and Israel cutting trade ties could be rather persuasive. Even so, Turkey may lack adequate leverage on Hamas to persuade it to change its ways, particularly as the group’s credibility and influence have surged in recent weeks, according to US intelligence.
Despite being labelled a terrorist outfit by most western countries, and even after the horrors of October 7, Hamas has positioned itself across some of the Arab and Muslim world, and beyond, as a defender of the Palestinian cause.
In mid-December, top Hamas officials reportedly gathered in Turkey – chosen because it had been deemed safe – for a meeting attended remotely by Al Arouri and former Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal. Should the group organise another such meeting in the coming weeks, one wonders how many of the attendees will be able to walk away unscathed – and just how far this war will escalate before cooler heads prevail.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M3%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%2FUSB-4%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206E%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Midnight%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%2F35W%20dual-port%2F70w%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%2C%202%20Apple%20stickers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C599%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre turbo 4-cyl
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Power: 190bhp
Torque: 300Nm
Price: Dh169,900
On sale: now
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Company profile
Name: GiftBag.ae
Based: Dubai
Founded: 2011
Number of employees: 4
Sector: E-commerce
Funding: Self-funded to date
Most wanted allegations
- Benjamin Macann, 32: involvement in cocaine smuggling gang.
- Jack Mayle, 30: sold drugs from a phone line called the Flavour Quest.
- Callum Halpin, 27: over the 2018 murder of a rival drug dealer.
- Asim Naveed, 29: accused of being the leader of a gang that imported cocaine.
- Calvin Parris, 32: accused of buying cocaine from Naveed and selling it on.
- John James Jones, 31: allegedly stabbed two people causing serious injuries.
- Callum Michael Allan, 23: alleged drug dealing and assaulting an emergency worker.
- Dean Garforth, 29: part of a crime gang that sold drugs and guns.
- Joshua Dillon Hendry, 30: accused of trafficking heroin and crack cocain.
- Mark Francis Roberts, 28: grievous bodily harm after a bungled attempt to steal a £60,000 watch.
- James ‘Jamie’ Stevenson, 56: for arson and over the seizure of a tonne of cocaine.
- Nana Oppong, 41: shot a man eight times in a suspected gangland reprisal attack.
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Angela Bassett, Tina Fey
Directed by: Pete Doctor
Rating: 4 stars
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Essentials
The flights
Emirates flies direct from Dubai to Seattle from Dh6,755 return in economy and Dh24,775 in business class.
The cruise
UnCruise Adventures offers a variety of small-ship cruises in Alaska and around the world. A 14-day Alaska’s Inside Passage and San Juans Cruise from Seattle to Juneau or reverse costs from $4,695 (Dh17,246), including accommodation, food and most activities. Trips in 2019 start in April and run until September.
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Results
Male 51kg Round 1
Dias Karmanov (KAZ) beat Mabrook Rasea (YEM) by points 2-1.
Male 54kg Round 1
Yelaman Sayassatov (KAZ) beat Chen Huang (TPE) TKO Round 1; Huynh Hoang Phi (VIE) beat Fahad Anakkayi (IND) RSC Round 2; Qais Al Jamal (JOR) beat Man Long Ng (MAC) by points 3-0; Ayad Albadr (IRQ) beat Yashar Yazdani (IRI) by points 2-1.
Male 57kg Round 1
Natthawat Suzikong (THA) beat Abdallah Ondash (LBN) by points 3-0; Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Ahmed Al Jubainawi (IRQ) by points 2-1; Hamed Almatari (YEM) beat Nasser Al Rugheeb (KUW) by points 3-0; Zakaria El Jamari (UAE) beat Yu Xi Chen (TPE) by points 3-0.
Men 86kg Round 1
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) beat Mohammad Al Khatib (PAL) by points 2-1
Men 63.5kg Round 1
Noureddin Samir (UAE) beat Polash Chakma (BAN) RSC Round 1.
Female 45kg quarter finals
Narges Mohammadpour (IRI) beat Yuen Wai Chan (HKG) by points.
Female 48kg quarter finals
Szi Ki Wong (HKG) beat Dimple Vaishnav (IND) RSC round 2; Thanawan Thongduang (THA) beat Nastaran Soori (IRI) by points; Shabnam Hussain Zada (AFG) beat Tzu Ching Lin (TPE) by points.
Female 57kg quarter finals
Nguyen Thi Nguyet (VIE) beat Anisha Shetty (IND) by points 2-1; Areeya Sahot (THA) beat Dana Al Mayyal (KUW) RSC Round 1; Sara Idriss (LBN) beat Ching Yee Tsang (HKG) by points 3-0.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
